• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% on 3 November 2026 in a 6-3 vote, its fifth increase this year. ^1,2
• On the Vantage AUDUSD feed, the pair traded at 0.69946 at 10:14 (GMT+8), 76 minutes before the decision, after three failed attempts to hold above 0.7000; afterwards, AUD/USD was reported near a two-week low around 0.6975. ²
• Market pricing for a further RBA hike to 5.10% fell to about 24% from 40% after the announcement, according to Reuters. ³

The Australian dollar slid to a two-week low near 0.6975 against the US dollar on 3 November 2026, hours after the RBA lifted its cash rate to 4.85%, the highest level since late 2008. ^2,4 Rate hikes are supposed to lift a currency. This one didn’t, and the reason is more interesting than the headline.

Here’s the part most AUDUSD news coverage skipped: the slide started before the statement did. On the Vantage forex price feed, AUD/USD traded at 0.69946 at 10:14 (GMT+8), 76 minutes before the 11:30 (GMT+8) decision, after failing three times to hold above 0.7000 through the Asia morning.

Instrument Snapshot: As of 10:14 (GMT+8) on 3 November 2026, AUD/USD traded at 0.69946 on the Vantage feed, inside an Asia-morning range of 0.69880 to 0.70035.

So the real question in today’s Australian dollar news isn’t whether the RBA hiked. It’s why the Aussie dollar treated a hike like bad news. Below, we walk through the AUDUSD chart, the 6-3 vote, the AUD vs USD rate gap, and the dates that matter into the US midterm results and Friday’s US payrolls.

Why Is the AUD Falling After the RBA Hike?

The Australian dollar fell after the RBA raised its cash rate to 4.85% because the hike was already priced in, a 6-3 vote cut the odds of another increase from 40% to 24%, and markets still expected the US Federal Reserve to hike in December.

AUD / USD at a Glance: RBA vs Fed as of 3 November 2026

Setting	Reserve Bank of Australia	US Federal Reserve
Policy Rate	4.85%, up from 4.60% 1	3.75% to 4.00% 5
Latest Decision	25 basis point hike, 3 November 2026	Hold in October after a September hike 5
Vote	6-3, with three members preferring a hold 1	Two officials dissented in favour of a hike 6
Market Odds of the Next Hike	About 24% for 5.10%, down from 40% 3	About 75% for December, down from 80% 7
Next Decision	8 December 2026 8	December 2026 meeting 5

Table 1: RBA and Fed settings as of 3 November 2026. Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, CME FedWatch via CNBC, ABC News, and CNN. Indicative only.

That’s the whole story in five rows. The rest of this piece shows the receipts.

AUDUSD Chart: Three Knocks at 0.7000

Price ran into the same round number three times before the RBA published a word. On the one-minute AUDUSD TradingView chart from the Vantage feed, the pair climbed from about 0.6990 at 08:00 (GMT+8) to a cluster of highs near 0.70035 between 08:24 and 08:37 (GMT+8). Then it dropped about 15 pips to 0.69880 in roughly six minutes, hitting that low at 08:43 (GMT+8).

The second and third knocks came at 09:00 (GMT+8), with a high of 0.70012, and 09:15 (GMT+8), with a high of exactly 0.70000. Neither stuck. A slower leg lower took price to 0.69900 at 10:09 (GMT+8) before a late bounce to 0.69946 at the 10:14 (GMT+8) cut-off.

Our read of this AUD to USD chart: 0.7000 appeared to work like a low ceiling all morning. As of the cut-off, price sat below both moving averages, the 50-period near 0.69952 and the 200-period near 0.69975, and the faster line had crossed under the slower one shortly after 09:15 (GMT+8). On a one-minute chart, that 200-period average covers three hours and 20 minutes, which counts as long term only at that zoom.

For the AUD/USD technical analysis crowd, momentum is the twist. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 15 during the 08:38 to 08:44 (GMT+8) fall, deep under the 30 line usually read as oversold, according to the TradingView setup used for this analysis. By 10:14 (GMT+8) it had climbed back to 54.36, with its signal line at 38.66.

Price stayed under 0.7000. Momentum didn’t stay down. The chart tells us where the pressure sat; it doesn’t tell us why a currency would wobble into a rate rise nearly everyone expected.

A Hike Delivered, a Peak Implied

The decision itself held few surprises, which, as it turned out, was the problem. The RBA’s Monetary Policy Board lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, with six members voting for the move and three for a hold at 4.60%. ¹ A day earlier, DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee wrote that the Aussie “has largely priced in a 25-bps hike to 4.85%”. ⁹

The inflation case was solid. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) put annual CPI at 4.3% in September, up from 4.0% in August, with trimmed mean inflation at 3.6%. ¹⁰ Standard Chartered’s Nicholas Chia then said he expected the RBA “to lift the cash rate to 4.85% in Q4”, after third-quarter trimmed mean inflation of 1.0% beat the RBA’s 0.8% projection. ¹¹

That data pushed AUD/USD to 0.7050, a one-month high, on 28 October. ¹¹ From there to the post-decision level near 0.6975, the pair gave back about 1.06% in under a week. In other words, the rally happened on the inflation print; the hike just collected the invoice.

The statement itself was hawkish on inflation. The Board said it expects inflation to “remain above 3 per cent for the coming year” and pushed its return to the top of the 2% to 3% band out to late 2027. ¹ What it didn’t do was promise more, saying only that it would stay attentive to the data. Governor Michele Bullock kept to that wait-and-see tone at her 12:30 (GMT+8) press conference, according to Bloomberg. ¹²

Markets heard that loud and clear. Pricing for a further hike to 5.10% fell to roughly 24% from 40%, Reuters reported, and Capital Economics’ Marcel Thieliant told the agency: “we believe that the Bank is now done tightening”. ³ If you follow interest rate news closely, that’s the line that moved the currency, not the 25 basis points.

The RBA delivered the hike markets had priced, and pricing for the next one fell from 40% to 24%.

Bonds agreed. Australian three-year bond futures rose three ticks to 95.20. ³ Subtract that from 100 and you get an implied three-year yield of about 4.80%, a touch below the new 4.85% cash rate. The RBA’s own projections lean the same way: FXStreet’s summary of the November Statement on Monetary Policy shows a cash rate assumption averaging 4.9% in mid-2027 and 4.8% by late 2027. ¹³

That explains the Australian half of the pair. The other half is being written in Washington.

AUD vs USD: The Rate Gap Markets Trade

The obvious explanation, that the RBA disappointed, doesn’t survive the statement: inflation forecasts went up, not down. ¹ The more useful variable sits across the Pacific. The US Federal Reserve held its rate at 3.75% to 4.00% in October after a quarter-point hike in September, ⁵ and the Federal Reserve news flow has kept December alive.

CME FedWatch put the odds of a December US hike at roughly 75% on 2 November, down from 80% a week earlier. ⁷ Zaner Metals’ Peter Grant summed up the mood: “the market is still expecting a December rate hike from the Fed”. ⁷ Meanwhile the US Dollar Index held near 102.00 ahead of the midterms. ¹⁴

Now the back-of-envelope maths. The gap between Australia’s 4.85% cash rate and the top of the Fed’s range is 0.85 percentage points today. If the Fed moves in December and the RBA doesn’t, it shrinks to 0.60. AUD vs USD appeared to trade the gap markets expect, not the one on today’s screen. For the longer version of that mechanism, see our guide on how central banks affect forex.

Fair warning, this is a simplification. The Aussie also moves with risk appetite, commodity prices, and Chinese demand, and two policy rates capture none of that. The RBA itself noted that AI-related investment had lifted growth in Australia’s major trading partners by more than expected. ¹

And here’s the bit that made us sit up. On 29 September, after the RBA hiked to 4.60%, AUD/USD fell to 0.6978 while the US dollar stayed firm on Fed tightening expectations. ¹⁵ Five weeks later, after the hike to 4.85%, it was reported near 0.6975. ² Two hikes, two lows within a few pips of each other. That rhymes; it doesn’t repeat on schedule, and it says nothing about December.

It also explains the morning chart. Reuters reported that the Aussie had already slipped 0.5% overnight as short-term positioning was trimmed, partly on worry that the RBA might pause, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had the week before. ³ Those three knocks at 0.7000 look a lot like positions being cut before the event.

AUDUSD Trend: Levels Traders Are Watching

Here’s how the AUDUSD trend looked across the morning chart and the post-decision reports. These are reference points, not trade signals.

AUD/USD Levels as of 10:14 (GMT+8), 3 November 2026

Level	Price	Source and Time
Daily 200-Day Moving Average	0.7058	Reuters, after the decision 3
Asia-Morning High (Level 1 Resistance)	0.70035	Vantage feed, 08:24 to 08:37 (GMT+8)
Round Number, Three Rejections	0.7000	Vantage feed, 08:24 to 09:15 (GMT+8)
Last Price at Cut-Off	0.69946	Vantage feed, 10:14 (GMT+8)
Asia-Morning Low (Level 1 Support)	0.69880	Vantage feed, 08:43 (GMT+8)
Reported Post-Decision Low (Level 2 Support)	Near 0.6975	FXStreet, after 11:30 (GMT+8) 2

Table 2: Levels as of 10:14 (GMT+8) on 3 November 2026 unless stated. Sources: Vantage AUDUSD feed via TradingView, Reuters, and FXStreet. Indicative only, not trade signals.

One detail jumps out: the post-decision low near 0.6975 sat below the morning floor of 0.69880, so that floor had already given way by the afternoon. ² Reuters’ technical read put the daily 200-day average at 0.7058 and flagged 0.6895 as the next lower reference point. ³

What would change the read? A sustained move back above 0.7000 and the 0.7058 average, or Australian pricing for a 5.10% cash rate drifting back toward the 40% seen before the statement. The read holds while a US December hike stays priced near 75% and Australian pricing sits near 24%.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: What Markets Are Pricing Instead

Type “AUD USD forecast”, “AUDUSD forecast”, “AUD/USD price forecast” “AUD to USD prediction” or “currency forecast AUD to USD” into a search bar this week and you’ll find no shortage of numbers. We don’t publish a price call, and honestly, the inputs are more useful than any single number anyway.

The two that matter are already in Table 1: roughly 24% odds of an RBA move to 5.10%, and roughly 75% odds of a December US hike. ^3,7 The RBA’s own projections add a third, with CPI inflation at 4.5% at the end of 2026 and unemployment rising to 4.7%. ¹³ Any Australian dollar forecast, AUD to USD forecast, AUD in USD forecast or AUDUSD prediction is, at heart, a view on how those three numbers move.

What to Watch: Midterms, Payrolls, CPI

All times are GMT+8.

• US Midterm Election Results, 4 November (Asia Session): Results land during Asian trading hours, when the AUD dollar pair is in full swing, and FXStreet noted they could add short-term volatility to USD pairs. ¹⁶
• US JOLTS (September), 3 November, 23:00: Job openings data arrives the same evening as the vote. ¹⁷
• US Nonfarm Payrolls (October), 6 November, 21:30: The first big US labour print since the Fed’s October hold; past releases sit under NFP news. ¹⁸
• US CPI (October), 10 November, 21:30: A central inflation input before the Fed’s December meeting. ¹⁸
• Australia Monthly CPI (October), 25 November, 08:30: The last monthly inflation read before the RBA meets again; follow it under CPI news. ¹⁹
• RBA Decision, 8 December, 11:30: The Board’s final call of 2026. ⁸

AUD to USD FAQ

What Is the AUD to USD Conversion Rate Today?

As of 10:14 (GMT+8) on 3 November 2026, AUD/USD traded at 0.69946 on the Vantage feed, so one Australian dollar was worth about USD0.70, which is the AUD in USD figure most people are after. Flip it and the USD AUD rate works out at about 1.4297. A trading quote includes a spread, so it isn’t the rate a bank will give you at the counter.

Will the RBA Hike Again in December?

Markets don’t think it’s likely: pricing for a move to 5.10% fell to about 24% after the decision, and Capital Economics now sees the RBA as finished tightening. ³ Governor Bullock offered no guidance either way. ¹²

Midterm Gap Risk and Position Size

We started with a puzzle: a currency falling on a rate hike. The evidence points to a simple answer. The hike was already in the price, the split vote and missing guidance cut the odds of the next one from 40% to 24%, and the US side kept its own hike priced. The Vantage chart showed that repricing starting at 0.7000 more than an hour before the statement.

This week stays busy, with midterm results on 4 November and payrolls on 6 November. This morning’s 15-pip drop between 08:38 and 08:44 (GMT+8) equalled about 0.22% of price, delivered in roughly six minutes.

A Stop Loss order is designed to close a position at a pre-set level and can limit losses to a planned size in normal conditions. Around events such as election results, prices can gap past a set level, and a standard Stop Loss may then be filled at a worse price than intended. Exposure across several USD pairs can also compound in a gap, because one US headline can move them together.

Leverage in forex magnifies the effect of price moves on an account balance in both directions, so it can deepen losses as readily as it amplifies gains. In proportional terms, at 1:10 leverage a 1% move in AUD/USD changes a position’s value by an amount equal to 10% of the margin posted, and this morning’s 0.22% drop would equal about 2.2% of that margin. Position size relative to account equity, rather than the leverage available, sets how much of an account a given move puts at risk.

Trading on margin carries a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision – Reserve Bank of Australia” https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-30.html Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[2] “Australian Dollar declines after RBA hikes rates by 25 bps to 4.85% – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-declines-after-rba-hikes-rates-by-25-bps-to-485-202611030407 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[3] “Australian dollar slips as RBA hikes rates in a split decision (Reuters) – Business Recorder” https://www.brecorder.com/news/40447182/australian-dollar-slips-as-rba-hikes-rates-in-a-split-decision Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[4] “RBA lifts interest rates to highest level in 18 years to try to dampen inflation – ABC News” https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-03/rba-lifts-interest-rates-november-2026-highest-rate-in-18-years/107340050 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[5] “Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady as midterm elections loom – ABC News” https://abcnews.com/Business/federal-reserve-set-issue-interest-rate-decision-midterm/story?id=137599228 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[6] “Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, but two officials dissented in favor of a rate hike – CNN” https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/28/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-october Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[7] “Gold rises from one-year low on softer oil prices; U.S. midterms in focus – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/gold-rises-on-softer-oil-markets-parse-fed-signals.html Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[8] “When will the RBA meet in 2026? – The Adviser” https://www.theadviser.com.au/borrower/47930-when-will-the-rba-meet-in-2026 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[9] “Australian Dollar: RBA hike mostly priced, risks of disappointment – DBS – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rba-hike-mostly-priced-risks-of-disappointment-dbs-202611021505 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[10] “Consumer Price Index, Australia, September 2026 – Australian Bureau of Statistics” https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/sep-2026 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[11] “Australian Dollar: RBA may hike again as inflation persists – Standard Chartered – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rba-may-hike-again-as-inflation-persists-standard-chartered-202610281220 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[12] “RBA’s Bullock Signals Policy Pause After Split Decision to Hike – Bloomberg” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-03/australia-raises-key-rate-to-18-year-high-in-split-decision Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[13] “RBA lifts interest rate by 25 bps to 4.85% in November, as expected – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rba-expected-to-raise-interest-rate-to-485-202611022330 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[14] “United States Dollar Index holds steady near 102.00 ahead of US midterm elections – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-holds-steady-near-10200-ahead-of-us-midterm-elections-202611030314 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[15] “Australian Dollar dips to fresh lows sub-0.7000 despite hawkish RBA Bullock – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-dips-to-fresh-lows-sub-07000-despite-hawkish-rba-bullock-202609290622 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[16] “Euro remains on defensive below 1.1200 as USD stabilizes ahead of US midterm elections – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-on-defensive-below-11200-as-usd-stabilizes-ahead-of-us-midterm-elections-202611030144 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[17] “Gold rebounds toward $4,000 as Iran peace hopes sink Oil, US Dollar – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rebounds-toward-4-000-as-iran-peace-hopes-sink-oil-us-dollar-202611021838 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[18] “CES News Release Schedule – US Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/ces/publications/news-release-schedule.htm Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[19] “Consumer Price Index, Australia, August 2026 (release schedule) – Australian Bureau of Statistics” https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/aug-2026 Accessed on 3 November 2026.