Key Takeaways

• USD/JPY traded at 157.898 at 10:14 (GMT+8) on 3 November 2026, after an Asia morning that ran from about 157.79 to 157.96 on Japan’s Culture Day holiday.¹
• The Bank of Japan held at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote on 30 October; the Federal Reserve held at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote on 28 October.^2,3
• Reported December hike odds ranged from about 78% to 85% for the Fed after its meeting, against about 80% for the Bank of Japan going into its own.^4,5,6

USD/JPY traded at 157.898 at 10:14 (GMT+8) on 3 November 2026, after an Asia morning spanning just 17 pips on the Vantage feed. Japan was out for Culture Day,¹ and the pair, it seems, took the day off too.

That calm is the odd part. On Friday the Bank of Japan (BoJ) said underlying inflation had reached its 2% goal.⁷ USD/JPY dipped below 157.00 after the decision, then climbed back, and the USD to JPY exchange rate rose 0.23% on Monday.^8,9

So why did a hawkish central bank barely dent the dollar? For anyone checking USD to JPY today, that question matters more than the price, especially into the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision, the US midterms, and Friday’s payrolls.

Instrument Snapshot: At 10:14 (GMT+8) on 3 November 2026, the Vantage USDJPY feed showed 157.898, about 0.01% below Monday’s close;⁹ Investing.com lists the USD/JPY 52-week high and low at 164.00 and 152.09.¹⁰

USD/JPY Analysis Today: The Short Answer

USD/JPY traded at 157.898 at 10:14 (GMT+8) on 3 November 2026, inside a 17-pip Tokyo-holiday range. Its wider 156 to 159 range has held for six weeks as markets price December hikes from both the Fed and the BoJ, keeping the expected gap at 2.75.

USD/JPY Today at a Glance, as of 10:14 (GMT+8), 3 November 2026

Measure	Reading
USD/JPY Rate (Vantage Feed)	157.898
Asia Session Range	About 157.79 to 157.96 (roughly 17 pips)
52-Week High / Low	164.00 / 152.09 10
Fed Funds Range	3.75% to 4.00% 3
BoJ Policy Rate	1.25% 2
December Hike Odds	Fed about 78% to 85% (28 to 29 October); BoJ about 80% (before 30 October) 4,5,6
Policy Gap (Fed Top Minus BoJ)	2.75 percentage points

The data for the table above is referenced from the Vantage USDJPY feed, Investing.com, the Federal Reserve, Reuters, Finimize, and investingLive. Odds were measured on different days and are indicative only.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis Today: A Morning of Two Halves

The 1-minute USD/JPY candlestick chart splits the morning neatly in two. The pair opened near 157.91 at 08:00 (GMT+8), slid to about 157.79 by 08:23 and leaned on that floor again at 08:38. Then came the only real burst: 12 pips in 4 minutes, to 157.93.

The high, near 157.96, came around 09:30. The live USD/JPY price then settled into a 157.87 to 157.93 band, ending a hair under the two moving averages at 157.901 and 157.911, which were about as close as two lines get without merging.

Momentum did the travelling. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis fell to about 22 near 08:23, then hit about 72 by 08:43, before reading 47.99 at the cut-off.

An oscillator swinging end to end while price moves 14 pips is what a thin holiday tape looks like, so this chart says more about liquidity than about the broader USD/JPY trend.

Seventeen pips is mostly a holiday effect. The bigger puzzle, why USD/JPY has spent six weeks boxed between 156 and 159, sits in last week’s central bank calendar.

USD/JPY News Today: A Hawkish Bank of Japan, a Shrugging Yen

On 30 October the BoJ held at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote, with Hajime Takata pushing for 1.50%, and nudged up its inflation forecast, according to a Reuters report carried on Yahoo Finance.² Governor Kazuo Ueda added that rate rises would continue.⁷

Analysts heard a change of gear. Shoki Omori of Deutsche Securities said the shift moves the debate “from when the next hike comes to where the policy rate stops”.¹¹ Nomura’s Mari Iwashita said the bank “probably still thinks its policy rate is some distance away from neutral”.¹²

So far, so yen-friendly. But markets had already priced about an 80% chance of a December BoJ hike before the meeting,⁶ and even Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama restating Tokyo’s support on Monday¹³ did not stop USD/JPY touching 158.00, its highest since 29 October.¹⁴

Not every reading was hawkish, though. Fukuoka Financial Group’s Tohru Sasaki, a former BoJ official, said the wording sounded slightly softer than markets expected, while Gaitame.com’s Shuhei Uehara said the dissent and higher price outlook were largely anticipated.¹¹ Our read: most of the message was in the price before Ueda said it. The rest of the USD/JPY news story sits on the other side of the pair.

USD vs JPY Today Is Really Fed vs Bank of Japan

On 28 October the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanting a quarter-point hike.³ After Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, CME FedWatch priced a December Fed hike at about 78%, Finimize reported, citing Reuters; FXStreet put futures pricing nearer 85% a day later.^4,5

Put the two side by side and the arithmetic is almost boring: 4.00% minus 1.25% is a 2.75-point gap, and adding a quarter point to both leaves it at 2.75. Boring, here, is the point.

It has happened before. Both central banks hiked by a quarter point in September, leaving the USD/JPY rate gap exactly where it was.⁵ ING’s economists flagged weaker-yen risks for the BoJ “should it not track the Fed and ECB with a rate hike in December”.¹⁵

When both central banks lean the same way by the same amount, the gap between them stays put, and so, mostly, does USD/JPY.

That fits the bigger picture: USD/JPY has held between just above 156.00 and near 159.00 since late September.¹⁴ It is a simplification; bond yields, oil, risk appetite, and intervention risk matter too, and the two odds were measured on different days.^4,6

If the gap is priced to stand still, the edges of the range do the talking.

USD/JPY Levels and Dates to Watch

USD/JPY Levels Traders Are Watching, as of 10:14 (GMT+8), 3 November 2026

Level	Price	Where It Comes From
Upper Range Reference	Near 159.00	Top of the range since late September 14
Recent High	158.00	Monday’s high, the highest since 29 October 14
Session High	About 157.96	Asia high near 09:30 (GMT+8), Vantage feed
Session Low	About 157.79	Asia low near 08:23 (GMT+8), Vantage feed
Lower Range Reference	Just above 156.00	Bottom of the range since late September 14

The data for the table above is referenced from the Vantage USDJPY feed and FXStreet, as of 10:14 (GMT+8) on 3 November 2026.

What Would Change the Read: A December hike from one bank without the other would move the gap; action by Tokyo in the currency market would be a separate shock altogether.

Dates to Watch (GMT+8): Each release is tracked live on our Forex News Today feed.

– RBA Decision, 3 November: Due at 11:30, with a rise to 4.85% widely expected.^8,16

– US Midterm Results, 4 November: Polls close in Wednesday’s Asia session. ¹⁶

– US JOLTS, 3 November: September job openings due at 23:00.⁸

– US Nonfarm Payrolls, 6 November: October payrolls at 21:30, the week’s big test for Fed pricing.¹⁶

– Fed and BoJ Decisions, 9 and 18 December: Where the priced hikes either arrive together or do not.¹⁴

USD/JPY FAQs

How Do You Calculate USD/JPY Pips?

A USD/JPY pip is the second decimal place, 0.01, so 157.79 to 157.96 is 17 pips; the third decimal on a quote like 157.898 is a fraction of a pip, not a typo. On a USD100,000 lot, one pip is JPY1,000, or about USD6.33 at 157.898.

When Is the Best Time to Trade USD/JPY?

Liquidity tends to be deepest in Tokyo hours (about 08:00 to 17:00 GMT+8) and the London and New York overlap (about 21:00 to 00:00 GMT+8). Holidays thin the Tokyo window, as this morning showed.¹

Is This a USD/JPY Forecast for Tomorrow, or a Buy or Sell Signal?

No. A USD/JPY forecast today, a buy or sell call, or a forex signal all promise a prediction; this analysis offers timestamped levels, market pricing, and what would change the read instead.

Risk on a Holiday-Thin Tape

Seventeen pips was the quiet part. It was roughly 30% of Monday’s 157.44 to 158.00 range,¹⁰ on a day Tokyo was shut and both central banks were priced the same way. The read holds while that balance holds, and weakens if December pricing for either bank moves on its own.

Thin sessions and scheduled events like this week’s can widen spreads and cause gaps, where price jumps past a level without trading at it. A Stop Loss order is designed to limit losses to a planned size, but in a gap it may fill at a worse price.

Leverage is double-edged: trading on margin magnifies losses as well as gains, and a few pips in USD/JPY can be a large share of the margin posted. Framing position size and leverage as a percentage of account equity shows in advance how far a given move would affect an account balance.

Related Reading

• USDJPY News
• Federal Reserve News
• Forex News Today

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References

[1] “Holiday Trading – Japan Exchange Group” https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/derivatives/rules/holidaytrading/index.html Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[2] “BOJ keeps interest rates steady, signals further rate hikes – Yahoo Finance (Reuters)” https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/boj-keeps-interest-rates-steady-031548283.html Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[3] “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement – Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System” https://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[4] “The dollar held steady after the Fed kept rates on hold – Finimize” https://finimize.com/content/the-dollar-held-steady-after-the-fed-kept-rates-on-hold Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[5] “Tokyo inflation and a BoJ rate decision come next for a flat Yen – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/tokyo-inflation-and-a-boj-rate-decision-come-next-for-a-flat-yen-202610292248 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[6] “BoJ keeps policy rate unchanged at 1.25%, as expected – investingLive” https://investinglive.com/central-banks/boj-keeps-policy-rate-unchanged-at-1-25-as-expected/ Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[7] “BOJ governor Ueda says will stick to rate hike path in response to latest macro developments – investingLive” https://investinglive.com/central-banks/boj-governor-ueda-says-will-stick-to-rate-hike-path-in-response-to-latest-macro-developments/ Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[8] “Forex Today: US Dollar retreats as US elections and RBA loom – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-the-us-dollar-retreats-as-us-elections-and-rba-loom-202611022041 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[9] “Japanese Yen – Quote – Chart – Historical Data – News – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[10] “USD/JPY – US Dollar Japanese Yen – Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[11] “Analysts react to BOJ decision to keep rates steady – AOL (Reuters)” https://www.aol.com/articles/instant-view-analysts-react-boj-032124000.html Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[12] “Analysis-BOJ locks in December hike, but neutral-rate uncertainty muddies outlook – Investing.com (Reuters)” https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/analysisboj-locks-in-december-hike-but-neutralrate-uncertainty-muddies-outlook-4989896 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[13] “Japanese Yen treads water despite moderate US Dollar weakness – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-treads-water-despite-moderate-us-dollar-weakness-202611020935 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[14] “Yen loses ground to the Dollar despite US-Iran deal hopes – FXStreet” https://fxstreet.com/news/yen-loses-ground-to-the-dollar-despite-us-iran-deal-hopes-202611022300 Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[15] “USD/JPY Forecast: Yen Recovery To Take Hold In Q2 2027 – ING – Exchange Rates UK” https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/47634/2026-11-01-usd-jpy-forecast-yen-recovery-to-take-hold-in-q2-2027-ing.html Accessed on 3 November 2026.

[16] “Dollar rangebound ahead of U.S. midterms; bitcoin reels from crypto heist – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/dollar-rangebound-ahead-of-us-midterms-bitcoin-reels-from-crypto-heist.html Accessed on 3 November 2026.