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• Vantage USDMXN CFD traded near 18.32 as of 09:44 (GMT+8) on 2 October 2026, after touching near 18.43 on 1 October.
• The pair climbed roughly 5% from near 17.50 on 24 September.
• The Fed hiked to a 3.75% to 4.00% range on 16 September; Banxico held at 6.50% on 24 September.^1,2

The Mexican peso lost about 6% against the US dollar in September, the worst of any currency that month on Bloomberg data cited by El Financiero.³ October opened with another leg: Vantage USDMXN CFD touched near 18.43 on 1 October, the peso’s weakest since late 2025,⁴ and traded near 18.32 as of 09:44 (GMT+8) / 01:44 (UTC) on 2 October 2026.

A shrinking rate gap explains the direction of that move, but not its size. This USDMXN analysis unpacks that difference and what the hourly chart shows before tonight’s US payrolls. (A higher USDMXN reading means a weaker peso, or a lower MXN/USD.)

USDMXN Technical Analysis: A 5% Climb as Momentum Cooled

The hourly chart shows a steady staircase from near 17.50 on 24 September to near 18.43 on 1 October, about 5% in just over a week.

Price stayed above the 50-hour moving average (MA) for most of the run. The one break came on 30 September, when a dip to near 17.94 slipped under it for a few hours before recovering. At the cut-off, the 50-hour MA read 18.15 and the 200-hour MA 17.75.

Momentum tells a quieter story. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis peaked above 80 on 29 September with price near 18.00. At the 1 October high, it topped out close to 71. Price made the higher high. RSI did not. As of the cut-off, RSI stood at 60.01.

The chart shows how far the pair travelled. The policy calendar shows why.

USDMXN News: The Fed Hiked, Banxico Held, and the Carry Cushion Thinned

The trigger came from Washington. The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75% to 4.00% range on 16 September, in a 12 to 0 vote.¹ Eight days later, Banco de México (Banxico) held at 6.50% for a third straight meeting, and the peso slipped about 1.2% straight after.²

That cut the policy-rate gap to about 2.5 percentage points, thinning the interest rate cushion behind the peso carry trade, where investors borrow cheaply to hold higher-yielding pesos.

Strong US data on 30 September then lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.29%.⁵ On 1 October, Banxico’s figures showed the USD to MXN rate closing near 18.29, a 1.17% peso loss on the day.³

Yet if the gap explains the move, why did the peso trail every other currency in September?

Why the Rate Gap Explains Only Part of the USD/MXN Move

Commerzbank estimated that a firm dollar and wider risk aversion account for only around a third of the peso’s 4%-plus drop since 22 September, linking the rest to positioning and renewed concern over the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) after a negotiating round was postponed.⁶

That fits the hourly chart, where momentum faded as price kept climbing, a pattern that can appear when repositioning rather than fresh rate news does the work. Mexico’s 10-year bond still yielded about 9.63% against 5.31% for the US equivalent on 1 October,³ so the carry has not vanished. What appears to have changed is how much risk investors are willing to hold against it.

The rate gap explains the direction of the peso’s slide. It does not explain its size.

Specific levels and dates now test that read, all tracked in our USDMXN news coverage.

USDMXN Levels Traders Are Watching Into US Payrolls

These are levels traders are watching on the USD to MXN chart, not trade signals.

Table 1: USDMXN reference levels as of 09:44 (GMT+8) on 2 October 2026. Sources: TradingView chart used for this analysis, The Rio Times. Indicative only.

Dates relevant to USD/MXN:

• US Nonfarm Payrolls, 2 October 2026: September jobs data at 20:30 (GMT+8).⁷ See NFP news.
• US CPI, 14 October 2026: September inflation data.⁷
• FOMC Decision, 28 October 2026: The meeting runs 27 to 28 October.⁸
• Banxico Decision, 5 November 2026: As of 28 September, money markets priced a 92% chance of a hold, FXStreet reported.⁹

The slide began with a rate decision, yet momentum cooled at the latest high. No chart settles a USD to MXN forecast. At the cut-off, the pair held above both moving averages with RSI near 60, and tonight’s payrolls are the first test, covered in forex news today.

USDMXN moved more than 1% in a single session at least twice in the past week,^3,9 and US releases can widen spreads and gap prices. A Stop Loss can limit a loss to a planned size, although fast markets may fill it at a worse price.

Leverage on forex CFDs magnifies gains and losses in equal measure. Position size set as a share of account equity, rather than conviction about one print, can keep a single release from dominating an account balance.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, 16 September 2026 – Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[2] “Central bank holds interest rates steady as peso slips toward its worst week since March – Mexico News Daily” https://mexiconewsdaily.com/business/banxico-interest-rates-steady-super-peso/ Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[3] “Peso arranca octubre con caída de 21 centavos – El Financiero” https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/mercados/2026/10/01/peso-dolar-precio-hoy-1-de-octubre-de-2026/ Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[4] “Peso se hunde a niveles no vistos desde 2025: precio del dólar hoy 1 de octubre de 2026 – Excélsior” https://www.excelsior.com.mx/finanzas/precio-dolar-hoy-tipo-cambio-bancos-mexico-1-octubre-2026 Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[5] “Mexico Markets: IPC and the Peso, October 1, 2026 – The Rio Times” https://www.riotimesonline.com/mexico-markets-ipc-peso-thursday-october-1-2026/ Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[6] “Mexican Peso: Weakness and USMCA risk repricing, Commerzbank – TMGM” https://www.tmgm.com/en/analysis/market-news/article/mexican-peso-weakness-and-usmca-risk-repricing-commerzbank-202610010830 Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[7] “Schedule of Releases for October 2026 – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched_list.htm Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[8] “Meeting calendars and information – Federal Reserve” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[9] “Mexican Peso plunges as US-Mexico interest rate differential reduces – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-plunges-as-us-mexico-interest-rate-differential-reduces-202609282252 Accessed on 2 October 2026.