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Crude Oil Prices Slip After Russia Sanctions Waiver: Brent and WTI Analysis
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Updated Tue, 2026 October 20 02:05
- Vantage UKOUSD CFD traded at 109.61 and Vantage USOUSD CFD at 98.61 as of 01:44 (UTC) / 09:44 (GMT+8) on 19 October 2026, below Friday’s highs near 112.25 and 100.45.
- WTI crude futures rose 10.41% in the week to 16 October, against 4.91% for Brent crude futures.4
- A US order waiving new Russia sanctions and tariffs, signed late on 16 October, came before Monday’s softer open.2
Brent crude slipped to 109.61 on Vantage UKOUSD CFD as of 01:44 (UTC) / 09:44 (GMT+8) on 19 October 2026, even though Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Saturday that two tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz.1 WTI crude eased to 98.61 on Vantage USOUSD CFD, hours after trading above $100 on Friday. The weekend’s other headline came from Washington: late on Friday, President Donald Trump signed an order waiving new sanctions on Russia and tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil.2
The gap between those two headlines is what this piece unpacks: which one crude oil prices appeared to weigh at the open, why WTI travelled further than Brent all week, and what that changes about the risk picture into Wednesday’s US inventory report.
For CFD holders, the weekend mattered twice. Both instruments opened Monday below Friday’s last prices, and positions carried through Friday’s spike absorbed the retracement before Asia’s first hour was out.
As of 09:44 (GMT+8) on 19 October 2026, Vantage UKOUSD CFD traded about 2.35% below its Friday high at 109.61, and Vantage USOUSD CFD about 1.79% below its own at 98.61. Over the past 52 weeks, front-month WTI futures ranged from 54.98 to 117.63,10 and Brent futures from 58.72 to 126.41.11
Brent and WTI Gave Back Friday’s Spike
Both charts tell the same story for the last 48 hours. Vantage UKOUSD CFD climbed from the 107.50 area to a high near 112.25 during the US session on 16 October, then traded at 109.61 by the cut-off. That took Brent back through its earlier-week high near 110.40, and back below it by Monday morning.
On the one-hour chart, Brent held above its 50-period moving average (MA) at 108.29 and its 200-period MA at 107.36, both still rising. The relative strength index (RSI), from the TradingView setup used for this analysis, peaked near 76 on Friday and stood at 52.51 at the cut-off, below its signal line at 62.36. Momentum went from stretched to ordinary in about four hourly candles.
WTI’s chart has more shape to it. Vantage USOUSD CFD set higher lows all week, near 90.10 on 12 October, 93.60 on 15 October, and 96.40 on 16 October, before topping out near 100.45. At 98.61, it sat above its 50-period MA at 96.70 and clear of its 200-period MA at 93.59; the 50-period line crossed above the 200-period line early in the week. RSI read 57.06 against a signal of 65.36, after peaking near 78.
The chart shows two benchmarks moving together on Friday. It does not show why one of them had gained twice as much by the close.
Supply Risks Lifted Both Benchmarks
Friday’s rally lined up with fresh pressure on the routes that carry crude around the Strait of Hormuz. A ballistic missile aimed at Yanbu, the Saudi Red Sea port used to export crude without crossing Hormuz, was intercepted, with early reports pointing to no damage.4 Yanbu matters because Kpler data showed every Saudi seaborne crude cargo in April and May left from that port.6
Russia added a second strand. A Ukrainian strike on the Ryazan refinery forced a primary crude distillation unit offline, adding to doubts over Russian diesel supply.5 Bloomberg reported fading confidence that the US-Russia diesel deal would deliver, after US lawmakers introduced a bill on Friday to block it.8
Brent crude futures settled at $109.86, their highest close since 19 May, and WTI futures at $101.41, their highest since 17 September.5 Emergency supply did not change Friday’s direction: the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release more than 20 million barrels of fuel, and the US invited proposals to exchange up to 17 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).5
In plain terms, the routes around Hormuz carried as much headline risk this week as the strait itself. That explains why both benchmarks rose. It does not explain why US crude outran the global one.
Why WTI Outran Brent
WTI futures gained 10.41% in the week to 16 October, while Brent futures added 4.91%.4 The extra lift for US crude appeared to come from home. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an 8.6 million-barrel fall in US crude inventories to 415.6 million barrels in the week ending 9 October, a draw linked to hurricane-related disruption to production and imports.4
WTI gained 10.41% last week, more than double Brent’s 4.91%, and the discount on US crude narrowed with it.
The spread tells the same story. EnergyNow put Brent’s premium over WTI near $8.45 at Friday’s settlement, from $12.87 a week earlier, though those figures compare November WTI with December Brent.4 On the Vantage CFD charts, the cash gap measured about 15.30 at the 12 October lows and 11.01 at the cut-off. Different contract months give different numbers; the direction matched.
For anyone holding both benchmarks, the week changed the relationship as much as the level. A narrower Brent premium means the two contracts behaved less like the same trade. Whether that persists appears to rest on one question EnergyNow also flagged: was the inventory draw a storm effect, or the start of tighter US supply? 4
The spread compressed on US data. The weekend then tested whether the global headlines still had the upper hand.
Two Weekend Headlines, One Direction
On Saturday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines while crossing the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Iranian news agency IRNA as reported by Reuters.1 There was no independent confirmation, and Vantage has not independently verified the report.
Late on Friday, Trump had waived new Russia sanctions and tariffs on top buyers of Russian oil and gas that were due to take effect under the Graham Act, while keeping earlier sanctions in place.2 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the decision wrong;2 Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump wanted time to assess what the sanctions and tariffs would mean for the global economy.7
Crude oil futures fell in early Asian trade, with Brent down 1.4% at $108.35 by 23:43 (UTC) on Sunday, 07:43 (GMT+8) on Monday, as markets positioned for improving supply.3 The read: at the open, markets appeared to price the measurable supply change ahead of the unconfirmed one. That describes Monday morning, not the week ahead.
Asia felt it too. Saxo noted pressure on the Nikkei 225 and Singapore’s Straits Times Index from the AI-led tech sell-off and elevated oil prices.12 With both weekend stories still live, the levels on the chart carry more weight than usual.
Levels and Dates Traders Are Watching
Table 1: Levels traders are watching as of 01:44 (UTC) / 09:44 (GMT+8), 19 October 2026
| Level | Brent (UKOUSD) | WTI (USOUSD) | What it marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level 1 resistance | near 112.25 | near 100.45 | 16 October spike high |
| Level 2 resistance | near 110.40 | near 97.90 | Earlier-week high before Friday |
| Cut-off price | 109.61 | 98.61 | 09:44 (GMT+8), 19 October |
| Level 1 support | 108.29 | 96.70 | Rising 50-period MA |
| Level 2 support | 107.36 | 93.59 | Rising 200-period MA |
| Level 3 support | near 105.90 | near 93.60 | 15 October pullback low |
Source: Vantage UKOUSD and USOUSD CFD one-hour charts via TradingView, read on 19 October 2026. Levels approximate; data indicative.
- EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, 21 October 2026: Standard release after 10:30 a.m. eastern time, which is 14:30 (UTC) / 22:30 (GMT+8).9 It shows whether last week’s 8.6 million-barrel draw repeated or reversed.
- Russia diesel deal bill, from 16 October 2026: Progress on the measure US lawmakers introduced to block the diesel transaction.8
- Hormuz and Red Sea shipping reports, daily: Any confirmation or denial of the weekend mine reports, and any further strikes near Yanbu.1,4
The read that US supply drove the narrower spread weakens if Wednesday’s EIA data shows stocks rebuilding as hurricane disruption fades. The read that the waiver outweighed Gulf risk at the open weakens if the mine reports are confirmed.
The weekend offered crude oil prices one reason to rise and one reason to fall. By 09:44 (GMT+8), Brent and WTI had both leaned towards the second while keeping most of a strong week. The mine reports remain unconfirmed; Wednesday’s EIA print is the first hard data on the other half of the story.
Both instruments opened Monday below Friday’s last prices, and a CFD position held through a weekend absorbs that kind of gap in full. A Stop Loss can limit losses to a planned size, although in a fast or gapping market it may be filled at a worse price than the level set.
Leverage amplifies gains and losses alike on oil CFDs, so a move of about 2%, like Brent’s slide from Friday’s high, weighs more heavily as leverage rises. Sizing positions as a share of account equity, rather than around a view on one headline, can stop a single session from carrying outsized weight.
Crude Oil FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
As of 09:44 (GMT+8) on 19 October 2026, Vantage UKOUSD CFD traded at 109.61, after a Friday high near 112.25 on the same chart. Brent crude futures settled at $109.86 on 16 October.5
Why did the WTI crude oil price rise more than Brent last week?
WTI futures gained 10.41% against Brent’s 4.91% in the week to 16 October, alongside an 8.6 million-barrel fall in US crude stocks linked to hurricane disruption.4
Why did crude oil prices fall on Monday?
Crude oil futures slipped in early Asian trade after the US waived new Russia sanctions and tariffs, as markets positioned for improving supply.3
Related Reading
- Oil Prices Today: WTI Leads as Brent Stalls Amid a US Stock Draw and Hormuz Risk
- Oil CFDs: How They Track Brent and WTI
- Crude Oil News Today
RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.
Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
References
[1] “Iran’s Guards Say Two Tankers Hit Mines in Strait of Hormuz – EnergyNow (Reuters)” https://energynow.com/2026/10/irans-guards-say-two-tankers-hit-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz/ Accessed on 19 October 2026.
[2] “Trump waives broad new Russia sanctions, Zelenskyy condemns it as ‘wrong’ – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/17/trump-waives-russia-related-sanctions-tariffs-before-they-take-effect-.html Accessed on 19 October 2026.
[3] “Oil prices slide as Trump waives Russia sanctions – Yahoo Finance (Investing.com)” https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/oil-prices-slide-trump-waives-004424276.html Accessed on 19 October 2026.
[4] “Oil Surges as Middle East Supply Fears Push Brent Near $110 and WTI Above $100 – EnergyNow” https://energynow.com/2026/10/oil-surges-as-middle-east-supply-fears-push-brent-near-110-and-wti-above-100-both-post-strong-weekly-gains/ Accessed on 19 October 2026.
[5] “Petroleum Daily Report 10-16-2026 – PFL Petroleum Services” https://pflpetroleum.com/reports/petroleum-daily-report-10-16-2026/ Accessed on 19 October 2026.
[6] “Red Sea shipping lanes in crosshairs as Houthis target Yanbu exports – Gulf News” https://gulfnews.com/world/yemens-houthis-say-attacked-saudi-oil-tanker-in-the-red-sea-1.500631157 Accessed on 19 October 2026.
[7] “Trump team defends Russia energy moves but offers contradictory reasons – Axios” https://www.axios.com/2026/10/18/trump-russia-diesel-deal-rubio-wright-sanctions Accessed on 19 October 2026.
[8] “Oil Advances Amid Fresh Doubt Over Trump’s Russian Diesel Deal – Bloomberg” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-15/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-oct-16 Accessed on 19 October 2026.
[9] “Weekly Petroleum Status Report Schedule – U.S. Energy Information Administration” https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.php Accessed on 19 October 2026.
[10] “Crude Oil WTI Futures Historical Prices – Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-historical-data Accessed on 19 October 2026.
[11] “Brent Oil Futures Historical Prices – Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-historical-data Accessed on 19 October 2026.
[12] “Asia Market Quick Take – 19 October, 2026 – Saxo” https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/content/articles/macro/asia-market-quick-take–october-19-2026-19102026 Accessed on 19 October 2026.
The information has been prepared as of the date published and is subject to change thereafter. The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
