Key Takeaways

• USD/CAD has traded between 1.3930 and 1.4010 since 29 October, below its 28 October level near 1.4060.
• The Bank of Canada lifted its policy rate to 2.50% on 28 October, while the Federal Reserve held at 3.75% to 4.00% the same day. ^3,4
• Canada’s September trade surplus reached CAD5.35B, the largest since May 2022, even as export volumes fell 4%. ²

USD/CAD fell to 1.3930 on Wednesday, the Canadian dollar’s strongest level since 16 September, on the same day Brent crude dropped 8.90% to $94.29 a barrel. ^1,2 The old “oil up, loonie up” rule had a confusing afternoon; we checked the oil screen twice.

As of 10:05 (GMT+8) on 5 November 2026, the USDCAD rate stood at 1.3955 on Vantage’s price feed, about 0.75% below the 1.4060 area where the pair sat on 28 October.

So what carried the loonie while crude fell? This USDCAD analysis traces it to a softer US dollar and a hawkish Bank of Canada (BoC), then sets out what that changes about risk into Friday’s twin jobs reports.

Why Did USD/CAD Fall This Week?

USD/CAD fell to 1.3930 on 4 November 2026, its lowest since 16 September, as a US dollar slide after the midterm elections and the Bank of Canada’s first rate hike since July 2023 outweighed an 8.90% drop in Brent crude, which normally pressures the loonie.

USD/CAD Drivers at a Glance (as of 10:05 (GMT+8), 5 November 2026)

Driver	What Happened	How It Lined Up With USD/CAD
US Midterm Elections	Democrats won both chambers of Congress; the US dollar retreated broadly 2	Coincided with the fall to 1.3930 on 4 November
Bank of Canada	Hiked to 2.50% on 28 October and flagged that more increases could follow 3	Pair dropped below 1.4000 on decision day
Federal Reserve	Held at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October after a September hike 4	Policy-rate gap narrowed to 125 to 150 basis points
Canada Trade Data	CAD5.35B September surplus against CAD4.10B expected 2	Added support on 4 November
Oil	Brent fell 8.90% to $94.29, lowest since 4 September 1	Usually a drag on the loonie; outweighed this time

Sources: Reuters via Business Day, Investing.com, investingLive, Fox Business, as of 5 November 2026.

USD/CAD Chart: Lower Low, Softer Momentum

The USD/CAD technical analysis in one breath: a sharp drop, then a narrow box. On the H1 USD CAD chart, the pair fell from near 1.4060 to below 1.4000 on BoC decision day, then traded mostly between 1.3945 and 1.4010.

Both moving averages (MAs) sit overhead: the 50-period at 1.3973 and the 200-period at 1.3996 at the cut-off, the latter sloping lower all week. The only spell above it came on 3 November, US election day, near 1.4010. Wednesday’s bounce from 1.3930 then stalled near the 50-period MA around 1.3978.

Momentum is quieter. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis read 45.01, under its 47.96 signal. It bottomed near 31 at Wednesday’s lower low, above the sub-30 reading of 28 October, so the newer low came with less force. A mid-40s RSI is the indicator’s polite way of saying “ask me later”.

The chart shows a firmer loonie. It does not show why.

The US Dollar Did the Heavy Lifting

Most of the move came from the US dollar. Democrats won both chambers of Congress in Tuesday’s midterms, and the greenback retreated broadly on the added political uncertainty, ² a story our USD news page tracks. George Davis, chief technical strategist at RBC Capital Markets, linked part of the loonie’s gain to that reaction. ¹⁰

The same result pulled crude to its lowest since 4 September, as traders weighed possible US policy shifts on the Middle East conflict; ¹ our oil price news today feed has the detail. Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial said Democratic control could “further heighten the possibility of a peace deal sooner than later”. ¹

Rate differentials did the rest. A quick bit of USD CAD history: the BoC’s move to 2.50% was its first hike since July 2023, and it flagged that more could follow. ³ The Federal Reserve (Fed) held at 3.75% to 4.00%. ⁴ “The Fed is still taking back some of last year’s rate cuts,” said Seema Shah of Principal Asset Management. ⁴ The policy-rate gap has narrowed to 125 to 150 basis points.

Canada’s September trade surplus, at CAD5.35B against a CAD4.10B consensus, added a final push. ²

On paper, a neat case. The fine print is less neat.

Why Oil Mattered Less This Time

Here is the twist we keep coming back to: the loonie’s oil link has been fading. Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, says the Canadian dollar “doesn’t respond to changes in the price of oil” as it once did. ⁵ Société Générale’s Kit Juckes prefers the two-year rate differential as a gauge. ⁵

The surplus was also thinner than its headline: export volumes fell 4% and services activity contracted for a fifth straight month. ² Headlines read the surplus; the footnotes read the volumes.

The bigger tension sits in the BoC’s reasoning. It tied the hike to energy, noting inflation excluding gasoline was 2.2% and core measures near 2%. ³ As of 4 November, money markets priced 15 basis points of BoC tightening for 9 December and 40 by March 2027. ⁵

The oil slide the loonie ignored on Wednesday is the same input the Bank of Canada cited when it raised rates a week earlier.

So oil sits on both sides of the ledger. In one session it coincided with a firmer loonie via the dollar; over weeks, lower crude, if sustained, would weaken the case behind those priced-in hikes. The softer momentum at 1.3930 fits that read without confirming it.

The next releases matter for which driver they touch.

USD/CAD Levels Traders Are Watching

Here is where the USDCAD price sat against the chart’s reference points: a map, not directions.

Table 1: USD/CAD H1 Levels as of 10:05 (GMT+8) on 5 November 2026

Level	USD/CAD Rate	What the Chart Shows
Level 2 Resistance	1.4060 area	Where the pair sat on 28 October before the BoC-day drop
Level 1 Resistance	1.3996 to 1.4010	200-period MA and the 3 November spike high
Pivot	1.3973	50-period MA, which capped the 4 November bounce
Cut-Off Price	1.3955	Vantage price feed at 10:05 (GMT+8)
Level 1 Support	1.3945 to 1.3950	Floor of the 29 October to 3 November range
Level 2 Support	1.3930	4 November low, the loonie’s strongest level since 16 September

Levels read from the USD/CAD H1 chart on TradingView, as of 10:05 (GMT+8) on 5 November 2026; 1.3930 low confirmed by Investing.com ^[2]. Indicative only.

The read weakens if USD/CAD trades back above the 1.3996 MA, and firms if a low below 1.3930 arrives with RSI confirming. This is a snapshot, not a USD CAD live feed, so the USD CAD rate may have moved.

What to Watch

Each lands on our forex news today feed.

• Canadian Federal Budget, 5 November: Tabled today, with small-business tax incentives expected. ⁶
• Canada Labour Force Survey, 6 November, 21:30 (GMT+8): Economists expect 18,000 jobs and 6.50% unemployment after a 68,000 drop in September. ^5,7
• US Non-Farm Payrolls, 6 November, 21:30 (GMT+8): Same minute as Canada’s report: efficient for the calendar, less so for spreads, which can widen as both sides reprice.
• US Consumer Price Index (CPI), 10 November, 21:30 (GMT+8): Feeds the Fed’s December decision. ⁴
• Canada CPI, 16 November: Tests whether energy costs are spreading, the BoC’s stated risk. ^3,8
• BoC and Fed Decisions, 9 December: Both central banks decide on the same day. ^4,9

USD/CAD FAQ

What Is the USD CAD Exchange Rate Today?

At 10:05 (GMT+8) on 5 November 2026, one US dollar bought about 1.3955 Canadian dollars, leaving USD CAD today just above Wednesday’s 1.3930 low. Our USDCAD news page collects each USD CAD news update.

Is There a USD CAD Prediction for 2026?

Vantage does not publish USDCAD predictions or a USDCAD forecast. What we can show is market pricing: 15 basis points of BoC tightening for 9 December, which Friday’s jobs data will test. ⁵ Any USD CAD forecast, Canadian dollar forecast, or USD CAD outlook elsewhere leans on that same rate path.

How Do You Read the USD CAD TradingView Chart for USD vs CAD?

The USDCAD rate shows how many Canadian dollars one US dollar buys, so a falling line means a stronger loonie. In this USDCAD technical analysis, both MAs sat above price at the cut-off. Our currency trading news adds context for anyone following forex USDCAD in Asia hours.

Risk Picture Around the Twin Jobs Reports

The loonie set its seven-week high on a day oil fell almost 9%, and the evidence points to the US dollar and the BoC’s rate path doing the lifting. Those drivers run on different clocks: jobs on Friday, inflation within a fortnight, oil at any hour. We will refresh this USD CAD analysis after Friday’s data.

With both jobs reports in the same minute, USD/CAD can gap or reverse quickly. A Stop Loss is one tool traders use to limit losses to a planned size, though in fast markets it can fill at a worse price than set.

Leverage magnifies both gains and losses, most of all around scheduled data. At 1:30, a 0.50% move in USD/CAD against a position equals roughly 15% of the margin committed, which is why position size relative to account equity shapes how one release affects an account balance.

Related Reading

• USDCAD News
• Forex News Today
• Oil Price News Today

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References

[1] “Oil prices plunge as Trump’s midterm defeat raises hopes of peace – Business Day (Reuters)” https://www.businessday.co.za/markets/2026-11-04-oil-prices-plunge-as-trumps-midterm-defeat-raises-hopes-of-peace/ Accessed on 5 November 2026.

[2] “Canadian dollar hits seven-week high as trade surplus widens, U.S. dollar slides – Investing.com” https://ca.investing.com/news/forex-news/canadian-dollar-advances-as-greenback-slides-on-us-election-fallout-4929885 Accessed on 5 November 2026.

[3] “The full statement from the Bank of Canada rate decision for October 2026 – investingLive” https://investinglive.com/central-banks/the-full-statement-from-the-bank-of-canada-rate-decision-for-october-2026-hikes-by-25-basis-points/ Accessed on 5 November 2026.

[4] “Federal Reserve makes interest rate decision ahead of midterms – Fox Business” https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-october-28-2026 Accessed on 5 November 2026.

[5] “Canadian Dollar Has Lost its Oil-Currency Status – Pound Sterling Live” https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/cad/23838-canadian-dollar-forecast-oil-link-fades-pound-to-canadian-dollar Accessed on 5 November 2026.

[6] “Bank of Canada maintains stance on rate hike ahead of Nov. 5 budget release – Global News” https://globalnews.ca/news/12134506/bank-of-canada-interest-rates-budget/ Accessed on 5 November 2026.

[7] “Canada Labour Force Survey November 2026 – Finance Calendar” https://www.financecalendar.com/event/canada-labour-force-survey-november-2026/ Accessed on 5 November 2026.

[8] “Report Release Dates 2026-27 – Government of Saskatchewan” https://publications.saskatchewan.ca/api/v1/products/86689/formats/156260/download Accessed on 5 November 2026.

[9] “Bank of Canada raises interest rate to 2.5%: how will it affect you? – MoneySense” https://www.moneysense.ca/news/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-decision-announcement-october-28/ Accessed on 5 November 2026.

[10] “Canadian dollar climbs to seven-week high as US election results shake markets – Philippine Canadian Inquirer” https://canadianinquirer.net/2026/11/05/canadian-dollar-climbs-to-seven-week-high-as-us-election-results-shake-markets/ Accessed on 5 November 2026.