• The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded at 101.541 as of 09:39 (GMT+8) on 10 November 2026, below both four-hour moving averages at 101.644 and 101.657.
• The index gave back about 0.66% from its post-payrolls high near 102.20 as Brent crude fell 5.85% and the S&P 500 rose 2.35% on Monday. ¹
• Fed funds futures priced an 84% chance of a December rate hike after Monday’s session, up from about 71% before Friday’s jobs report. ^1,2

The dollar index today traded at 101.541 as of 09:39 (GMT+8) on 10 November 2026, about 0.66% below Friday’s high near 102.20, even after markets lifted the odds of a December Federal Reserve rate hike to 84%. ¹ The rate case for the greenback got stronger, and the greenback got weaker anyway. That is not how the textbook draws it.

So what happened between Friday’s payrolls party and Tuesday morning in Asia? This dollar index analysis shows which of Friday’s two supports gave way, where the US dollar index chart sits against its averages, and what tonight’s October consumer price index (CPI) report puts on the line.

Timing is the awkward part for anyone holding US dollar exposure into the print. Finimize, citing Reuters, noted that positioning already leaned towards owning dollars, and Westpac’s Imre Speizer saw limited room to add December hike pricing, so a soft print meets a crowded trade. ⁶

As of 09:39 (GMT+8) on 10 November 2026, Vantage USDX CFD traded 0.01% higher on the current four-hour candle at 101.541. The dollar index value as of today sits inside a chart-window range of about 101.05 to 102.70, measured from 8 October.

The Quick Answer on DXY Today

The dollar index fell on Monday because sliding oil prices and an equity rebound drained the safe-haven demand that lifted it after Friday’s jobs report. December hike odds rose to 84%, but that was largely priced, leaving USDX below its 101.64 to 101.66 average band.

Dollar Index at a Glance, as of 09:39 (GMT+8) on 10 November 2026

Measure	Reading	Source
Dollar index price (USDX)	101.541	Vantage four-hour chart
Move from post-payrolls high	About -0.66% from near 102.20	Vantage four-hour chart
50- and 200-period moving averages	101.644 and 101.657	TradingView setup used for this analysis
RSI (14)	44.91, signal line 55.52	TradingView setup used for this analysis
December Fed hike odds	84%	Fed funds futures, via Reuters 1
Next catalyst	October CPI, 21:30 (GMT+8), 10 November 2026	Kiplinger 8

Friday’s Rally Unwound Below the Averages

Pull up the USDX chart on four-hour candles and the past month reads like a range with one bad habit: jumping, then apologising. Since 8 October, the index has traded between roughly 101.05 and 102.70, with the top set by a 14 October spike that faded within a session.

The latest swing ran from the 4 to 5 November lows near 101.05 to a high near 102.20 after Friday’s jobs data, the index’s largest single-session advance since September, according to Investing.com. ⁵ Three sessions of mostly lower four-hour candles then walked it back to 101.541 by our cut-off.

That pullback put price under both moving averages on the TradingView setup used for this dollar index technical analysis. The 200-period average, the smoother line on the dollar index graph, climbed from near 100.00 at the start of the window and now sits beside the flatter 50-period average.

At the cut-off the two read 101.644 and 101.657, close enough to share a label on the chart. Averages packed that tightly tend to mark a pivot area more than a trend signal, so the 101.64 to 101.66 band matters more than either line alone.

Momentum cooled faster than price. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) read 44.91 at the cut-off, below its signal line at 55.52, after peaking near 66 during the payrolls rally. It touched 30 at the 4 November low, so the current reading sits in neutral territory, not oversold. Anyone watching the dollar index live, or the US dollar index live on a dollar index TradingView layout, will see the same readings with these settings.

The chart shows the rally fading. It does not explain why it faded on a day when the rate case for the dollar got stronger.

Hike Bets Rose, the Dollar Fell

Friday’s jobs report gave the hawks plenty to work with. Payrolls rose by 165,000 in October against a 65,000 forecast, and unemployment edged down to 4.1%. ² December hike odds moved to about 81% from 71%, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said further hikes may still be needed. ²

That lands on a Federal Reserve already in tightening mode. It raised rates in mid-September for the first time in three years, then paused in late October. ⁸

Monday added to the rate story rather than taking from it. Fed funds futures traders lifted December hike odds to 84%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.48 basis points to 4.874% ahead of the CPI report. ¹

Price went the other way. Investing.com recorded a 0.6% fall in the US dollar index to 101.68 on Monday, with the euro up 0.7% at $1.1224. ⁴ That is the dollar index news in one line: better rate support, weaker dollar. Something else was doing the pulling.

The Haven Bid Left First

Our read is that Friday’s rally ran on two engines, not one. Alongside the hike repricing, Trading Economics reported that the dollar drew safe-haven demand during a global equity selloff tied to worries over AI valuations and tighter regulation. ³

Monday switched off the second engine. Brent crude fell 5.85% to $92.57 after US President Donald Trump said he was unlikely to order fresh strikes on Iran while talks progressed, and the S&P 500 rose 2.35%. ¹ Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments, described the prior stock rout as a “very steep and exaggerated selloff in the market”. ¹ Once shelter looked less necessary, the shelter trade got lighter.

The basket shows where the selling landed. The euro carries 57.6% of the ICE US Dollar Index, ⁷ so its roughly 0.7% gain on Monday ⁴ alone accounts for about 0.4% of the index decline (0.576 multiplied by 0.7%), or roughly two-thirds of the 0.6% fall.

That is an approximation, since the DXY index is a geometric average of six exchange rates. Still, for what moved the DXY dollar index on Monday, EUR/USD is the first place to look.

Monday showed the dollar index can lose its haven bid faster than it gains a rate bid.

A slower thread runs underneath. Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman argued that Democratic midterm gains could bring rules that slow US data centre expansion in 2027, a growth drag he said “helps put a top in for the USD”. ⁴

What Tonight’s CPI Puts on the Line

Economists polled by Reuters expect October CPI to show headline prices up 0.3% on the month and core up 0.2%. ¹ There is a twist. Because October 2025 prices were never collected during the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish year-over-year CPI this month, which puts the monthly figures centre stage. ⁸

Bank economists disagree on how warm the print runs. Wells Fargo expects core to cool to about 0.21% yet still sees a December hike, as does Barclays’ Pooja Sriram. ⁸ RBC’s Michael Reid leans hotter, flagging “inflation risks skewed heavily to the upside”. ⁸

That is why this page carries no dollar index forecast. Searches for a DXY forecast or a dollar index prediction jump before every CPI release, but the more useful question is what the market has already priced, and fed funds futures say most of December. ¹

Dollar Index Levels in View Before CPI

USDX levels traders are watching, as of 09:39 (GMT+8) on 10 November 2026

Level	Area	What the Chart Shows
Level 3 resistance	102.70	14 October spike high, the top of the chart window
Level 2 resistance	102.20 to 102.30	Post-payrolls high and the 28 October high
Level 1 resistance	101.64 to 101.66	50- and 200-period moving averages, now above price
Cut-off price	101.541	USDX at 09:39 (GMT+8)
Level 1 support	101.30	Floor of the 16 to 23 October range
Level 2 support	101.05 to 101.10	4 to 5 November lows, the bottom of the chart window

Levels read from the Vantage USDX four-hour chart on TradingView as of 09:39 (GMT+8) on 10 November 2026. Indicative only.

The read of a fading rally holds while price stays under the 101.64 to 101.66 band. It weakens if four-hour candles close back above that band, which would put the index over both averages again. A close under 101.05 would take it below the lowest point on this chart, last tested on 5 November.

Pre-CPI dollar index checklist:

• Monthly core CPI against the 0.2% consensus, since no official annual rate will be published. ⁸
• December hike odds against the 84% already priced. ¹
• Four-hour closes relative to the 101.64 to 101.66 moving-average band.
• EUR/USD first, because the euro makes up 57.6% of the basket. ⁷
• Position size as a share of account equity, set before the release rather than after it.

What to watch next:

• US CPI (October), 10 November, 21:30 (GMT+8): Monthly headline and core readings against the 0.3% and 0.2% consensus. ^1,8
• US PPI (October), 13 November: Producer prices close out the week’s inflation data. ⁴
• AI-Linked Earnings, This Week: CoreWeave, Applied Materials, and Cisco Systems report, a test of the equity mood behind last week’s haven demand. ¹
• FOMC Decision, 9 December: The Fed issues its final policy decision of 2026. ⁸

Dollar Index Questions Traders Ask

What is the dollar index?

The US Dollar Index, quoted as DXY or USDX, measures the dollar against six currencies weighted 57.6% euro, 13.6% yen, 11.9% sterling, 9.1% Canadian dollar, 4.2% Swedish krona, and 3.6% Swiss franc. ⁷ Dollar index USDX, USDX index, or US dollar index DXY: a higher reading means the dollar gained against that basket.

How does gold relate to the dollar index?

Gold is priced in US dollars, so the gold dollar index relationship has often run in opposite directions, though it loosens when both draw haven demand. Compare Gold (XAUUSD) with the dollar index chart around tonight’s CPI.

Where do dollar index futures fit in?

Dollar index futures trade on ICE Futures U.S. and ICE Futures Singapore. ⁷ The chart here is the Vantage USDX price on TradingView, so its levels can differ slightly from futures and other DXY today feeds.

Volatility Risk Around the CPI Release

Monday’s contradiction resolved in one direction: the rate bid stayed and the haven bid left. Tonight’s CPI is the first test of whether the rate bid alone carries the dollar index back above its averages, or whether the 101.64 to 101.66 band keeps acting as a ceiling.

Data releases such as CPI can move the dollar index sharply within minutes, widen spreads, and make prices gap past a planned exit. A Stop Loss order closes a position at a level set in advance, which limits losses to a planned size in normal conditions but cannot guarantee that level in a fast or gapping market.

Leverage magnifies gains and losses alike: a 1% move against a position held at 1:10 equals a 10% change in the margin committed to it, and higher leverage leaves less room for a data surprise before a margin call. Position size, as a share of account equity, decides how much of any move reaches the account balance.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

1. “Stocks jump as oil tumbles, Nvidia falls amid internal probe – The Star (Reuters)” https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2026/11/10/stocks-jump-as-oil-tumbles-nvidia-falls-amid-internal-probe Accessed on 10 November 2026.
2. “Dollar Holds Firm on Strong Jobs Report – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency/news/599336 Accessed on 10 November 2026.
3. “Dollar Index Rebounds – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency/news/599090 Accessed on 10 November 2026.
4. “Dollar slips, taking a breather after last week’s advance a day ahead of CPI test – Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/asia-fx-gains-as-dollar-steadies-after-strong-us-jobs-data-china-cpi-in-focus-5010449 Accessed on 10 November 2026.
5. “Dollar retreats from post-jobs spike as traders brace for U.S. CPI test – Yahoo Finance” https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/asia-fx-gains-dollar-steadies-050325590.html Accessed on 10 November 2026.
6. “Dollar Steadies As Traders Wait On US CPI – Finimize” https://finimize.com/content/dollar-steadies-as-traders-wait-on-us-cpi Accessed on 10 November 2026.
7. “Managing US Dollar Risk in Uncertain Times – ICE” https://www.ice.com/insights/indexation-and-etfs/managing-us-dollar-risk-in-uncertain_times Accessed on 10 November 2026.
8. “October CPI Report: What the Inflation Data Is Expected to Show – Kiplinger” https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/october-2026-cpi-report-what-to-expect Accessed on 10 November 2026.