Key Takeaways

• At the 10:11 (GMT+8) cut-off on 6 November 2026, EURUSD stood 0.56% below its 4 November high near 1.1273, but 0.44% above its 30 October close.
• Euro-area inflation rose to 4.0% in October, while US initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 in the week to 31 October.
• Price sat between the 50-period (1.12364) and 200-period (1.11844) hourly moving averages, with RSI (14) at 39.87.

EUR/USD traded at 1.12095 at 10:11 (GMT+8) on 6 November 2026, roughly 64 pips below Wednesday’s high of 1.1273. ¹ Here’s the odd part: euro-area inflation had just climbed to 4.0%, ² the sort of number that tends to firm up bets on European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes.

So why did the midweek pop fade? This EURUSD analysis today unpacks how a steadier dollar and euro-specific strains capped the EURUSD price, and what that means for the risk picture into US payrolls at 21:30 (GMT+8) tonight.

Two of the week’s sharpest hourly moves came on US news, and the next big release lands after dinner across most of Asia.

Why Did EUR/USD Slip From Its Midweek High?

EUR/USD slipped from its 1.1273 high as the dollar’s post-election slide stalled. Euro-specific strains weighed in European hours, lower-than-expected US jobless claims then added pressure, and with the Fed and ECB both leaning towards December hikes, the rate gap gave the euro very little lift.

Measure	Federal Reserve	European Central Bank
Policy Rate	3.75% to 4.00% (held on 28 October) 3	Deposit rate 2.50% (held on 29 October) 4
Latest Inflation	US CPI 3.7% (September) 5	Euro-area HICP 4.0% (October flash) 2
December Pricing	74.5% chance of a hike of at least 25 bp, down from 79.9% a week earlier 5	Hike widely expected after the October hold 6
Next Decision	9 December 2026 7	17 December 2026 8

Table 1: Fed and ECB policy settings as of 5 to 6 November 2026. Sources: Federal Reserve, FXStreet, Investing.com, Eurostat, investingLive, FinanceCalendar. Indicative only.

EURUSD Chart: Momentum Faded Before Price

What caught our eye on the EURUSD chart was how tired the rally looked before it turned. On the Vantage H1 feed, the pair climbed from near 1.1185 to the 1.1265 area on the morning of 4 November (GMT+8), topped near 1.1273 around 20:00 (GMT+8), then managed only 1.1268 around 13:00 (GMT+8) on 5 November. It dipped to 1.1203 around the US claims release, bounced to about 1.1243, then eased through Friday’s Asia session.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis peaked near 77, then reached about 69 at the 1.1273 high and 64 at the second. Price nearly repeated itself; momentum didn’t, a gap often read as thinning buying pressure.

At the cut-off, RSI (14) sat at 39.87, below its 44.52 average and the 50 midline, with price about 27 pips under the 50-period average and 25 above the 200-period one. In EURUSD technical analysis terms, that’s dead centre: a tidy place to wait for a jobs report.

For the why, look beyond the chart.

EURUSD News Today: The Dollar Found Its Feet

Most of this week’s EURUSD news came from the US side. After US midterm results showed Democrats winning control of both chambers of Congress, the US dollar index fell below 101.50 on 4 November. ⁹ Most of Wednesday’s climb came as results arrived, hours before Eurostat’s inflation print. The ECB’s daily reference rate traced the round trip: 1.1179 on 3 November, 1.1267 on 4 November, and 1.1224 on 5 November. ¹⁰ That last fix came before the US claims data, so much of Thursday’s slide happened in European hours.

On Thursday, Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke wrote, “It is therefore possible that this week will ultimately belong to the euro”. ¹¹

Then the US data landed. Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 against expectations of 196,000, and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials reinforced expectations of a December hike. ¹² Itai Smidt, writing on Investing.com, put it plainly: “The euro’s post-election pop against the dollar lasted barely a day”. ⁵

The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52% on 5 November, its worst session since April 2025. ¹³ and Investing.com noted safe-haven dollar demand picking up at the margin. ⁵

The dollar did much of the steering this week, though France kept a foot near the brake.

The harder question is why 4.0% inflation couldn’t hold the euro’s gains.

Why 4.0% Inflation Didn’t Hold the Euro

On inflation alone, Europe had the stronger case for higher rates: Eurostat’s flash estimate put October inflation at 4.0%, up from 3.8%. ² The European Central Bank (ECB) held its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October, ⁴ and that day JPMorgan’s Greg Fuzesi pointed to “the expectation that an interest rate hike will follow in December”. ⁶

Here’s the catch: the Fed is in a hiking cycle too, and two policymakers voted for another hike in October. ³ The top of the Fed’s range sits 150 basis points above the ECB deposit rate, so matching December hikes would leave that gap exactly where it is. ⁵ That’s a lot of hiking to stand still.

With both central banks leaning towards hikes, the rate gap is standing still, so headlines, not policy, have been moving EUR/USD.

With the rate gap frozen, surprises move the pair, and Europe supplied some for the euro: France’s National Assembly rejected the 2027 budget on 4 November and a nationwide strike followed on Thursday, per Investing.com contributor analysis Vantage has not independently verified. ⁵

Here’s where the chart stood going into the data.

EURUSD Support and Resistance Into Payrolls

There’s no EURUSD signal here, and no EURUSD prediction or EURUSD price forecast either. Think of this table as a map, not directions.

Level	Price	What It Marks on the H1 Chart
Resistance 2	1.1273	4 November high
Resistance 1	1.1236	50-period moving average (1.12364)
Current Price	1.12095	EURUSD on the Vantage feed at the cut-off
Support 1	1.1203	5 November low, set around the US jobless claims release
Support 2	1.1184	200-period moving average (1.11844) and the 3 to 4 November base
Support 3	1.1105	29 October low

Table 2: EURUSD H1 levels as of 10:11 (GMT+8), 6 November 2026. Source: Vantage feed on TradingView, levels read from the chart. Indicative only.

The range read holds while price sits between the two averages; a sustained hourly close outside either, with RSI agreeing, would change it.

Pre-Payrolls Checklist

• Headline payrolls against the 65,000 consensus ⁵
• Unemployment rate against the 4.2% forecast ⁵
• Revisions to the previous two months
• Where price sits relative to 1.1236 and 1.1184 at 21:30 (GMT+8)
• Whether RSI (14) reclaims 50 or stays below it

What to Watch

Looking for a EURUSD forecast today? The calendar matters more than any EURUSD outlook we could write; follow each release in our forex news today coverage.

• US Non-Farm Payrolls, 6 November, 21:30 (GMT+8): October jobs report, the next big US input. ⁷
• Eurostat Final HICP, 18 November: confirms or revises the 4.0% flash estimate. ²
• Fed Decision, 9 December, and ECB Decision, 17 December: the two meetings that decide whether the rate gap stays frozen. ^7,8

EURUSD FAQs: Rate, Pips, and Strategy

What Is the EURUSD Rate Today?

For anyone checking EURUSD today, the EURUSD current price on the Vantage feed was 1.12095 at 10:11 (GMT+8) on 6 November 2026. The EURUSD exchange rate moves tick by tick; check the EURUSD live chart and EURUSD live rate for the latest EURUSD price. EURUSD chart live, EURUSD live price, or live EURUSD price: it’s the same feed.

What Is the EURUSD Pip Value?

One pip is 0.0001, so a standard lot of 100,000 euros moves USD10 per pip (0.0001 × 100,000), a mini lot USD1, and a micro lot USD0.10. A EURUSD pip calculator runs the same sum for any size.

How Do You Trade EURUSD Around Payrolls?

Anyone working out how to trade EURUSD around a jobs report weighs volatility, spreads, and position size; most EURUSD trading strategies build in all three. For CFD traders, leverage magnifies losses as well as gains.

Payrolls Volatility and Your Risk Picture

We started with a puzzle: the euro had the firmer inflation data and a fading rally. With both central banks leaning towards hikes, the rate gap stood still, so French politics and US data did the moving. RSI was below 50 going into payrolls.

Jobs reports can widen spreads and move EURUSD tens of pips in minutes. A Stop Loss is designed to limit losses to a planned size, but in fast markets it may fill at a worse price than the level set, and it doesn’t remove the risk of loss.

Leverage cuts both ways. At 1:30, a 1% move in EURUSD changes a CFD position’s value by about 30% of the margin behind it, whether the move is for or against the position. Sizing positions as a share of account equity is one way traders frame that exposure.

Related Reading

• EURUSD News
• Federal Reserve News
• ECB News

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

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[2] “Euro area annual inflation up to 4.0% – Eurostat” https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-04112026-ap Accessed on 6 November 2026.

[3] “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, 28 October 2026 – Federal Reserve” https://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm Accessed on 6 November 2026.

[4] “ECB review: A no-hike decision – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ecb-review-a-no-hike-decision-202610291544 Accessed on 6 November 2026.

[5] “EUR/USD Range Tightens as Fed and ECB Hikes Cancel Out – Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/analysis/eurusd-range-tightens-as-fed-and-ecb-hikes-cancel-out-200690963 Accessed on 6 November 2026.

[6] “European stocks rally after ECB and Fed holds – AOL” https://www.aol.co.uk/articles/european-stocks-rally-ecb-fed-172235000.html Accessed on 6 November 2026.

[7] “US Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) November 2026 – FinanceCalendar” https://www.financecalendar.com/?p=1293 Accessed on 6 November 2026.

[8] “Economic and event calendar in Asia, 21 October 2026: ECB Lane speaking – investingLive” https://investinglive.com/central-banks/economic-and-event-calendar-in-asia-wednesday-october-21-2026-ecb-lane-speaking/ Accessed on 6 November 2026.

[9] “The Euro has spread its wings – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-euro-has-spread-its-wings-202611051052 Accessed on 6 November 2026.

[10] “US dollar (USD): ECB euro reference exchange rate – European Central Bank” https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-usd.en.html Accessed on 6 November 2026.

[11] “Euro: Supported by ECB hike prospects – Commerzbank – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-supported-by-ecb-hike-prospects-commerzbank-202611051402 Accessed on 6 November 2026.

[12] “Euro loses momentum as US Dollar regains footing after election-led volatility – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-loses-momentum-as-us-dollar-regains-footing-after-election-led-volatility-202611051519 Accessed on 6 November 2026.

[13] “Nasdaq 100 suffers worst day since 2020 – investingLive” https://investinglive.com/stocks/nasdaq-100-suffers-worst-day-since-2020/ Accessed on 6 November 2026.