• Vantage EURUSD CFD traded near 1.1223 as of 09:41 (GMT+8) on 10 November 2026, about 0.8% above Friday’s post-payrolls low near 1.1131.
• US nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October; on Monday, futures priced around 82% odds of a Fed rate hike on 9 December, higher than a week earlier.
• October US CPI is due at 21:30 (GMT+8) today without a 12-month comparison, because no October 2025 index was published.

EURUSD traded near 1.1223 on Tuesday morning in Asia, back above the level it held just before Friday’s US jobs report gave the dollar its biggest one-day gain in nearly six months. ¹ The jobs data has not changed since Friday. The price has.

As of 09:41 (GMT+8) on 10 November 2026, Vantage EURUSD CFD traded at 1.12232, roughly 0.8% above Friday’s low near 1.1131; the pair’s 2026 range runs from 1.1105, set on 29 October, to 1.2081, set on 27 January. ²

That gap between the data and the chart is what this piece unpacks: why the euro clawed back Friday’s drop while rate pricing kept leaning towards the dollar, and what that leaves exposed for anyone holding EURUSD into tonight’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

Friday’s Drop, Monday’s Round Trip

The week had already produced one swing before Friday. The dollar fell on 4 November after Democrats’ sweeping midterm win, Reuters reported, ³ and EURUSD traded as high as 1.1273 this month, according to Exchange Rates UK. ⁴

Friday reversed that. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 165,000 in October, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% and August and September revised up by a combined 84,000. ⁵ Economists polled by LSEG had expected 65,000. ⁶

The euro fell 0.7% on Friday and touched 1.1132, close to the 1.1105 trough set a week earlier, its weakest level since May 2025, according to Reuters. ¹ On the Vantage EURUSD chart, the hourly candle that included the release, 21:00 to 22:00 (GMT+8) on 6 November, carried the pair to the week’s low near 1.1131.

Monday ran the other way. The dollar weakened against major currencies, including the euro, as easing concerns about escalation in the Middle East conflict drew investors back into risk assets after the previous week’s slide in AI-linked stocks, with Brent crude down 3.4% at $94.99 a barrel, Reuters reported. ⁷

By about 03:00 (GMT+8) on Tuesday, the pair was back near 1.1225. That is a lot of travel to finish roughly where Thursday ended.

That accounts for the price. It does not account for why rate pricing stayed where Friday left it.

Rate Bets Stayed With the Dollar

The Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 on 28 October to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00%. ⁸ Both dissenters, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Governor Lisa Cook, preferred a quarter-point hike. ⁹

Friday’s payrolls added to that pressure. On Monday, futures implied around 82% odds of a hike at the 9 December meeting, higher than a week earlier, according to Reuters, citing CME Group’s FedWatch tool. ⁷

The European Central Bank (ECB) has an inflation problem of its own. It held the deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October and said rising energy prices posed upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. ¹⁰

Eurostat’s flash estimate put October euro area inflation at 4.0%, up from 3.8% in September, with energy prices up 20.8% on the year. ¹¹ FXStreet reported on 4 November that markets expected both central banks to raise rates in December. ¹²

Read together, Monday’s rebound looks more like a mood story than a rate story. The higher Fed hike odds that Friday produced were still in place on Monday; what changed was oil, equities, and demand for the dollar as a shelter. The exchange rate made the round trip in two sessions; rate futures stayed at the destination.

Monday’s rebound erased Friday’s price move, not Friday’s rate repricing.

Bank research points to the same ceiling the chart shows. Scotiabank strategists flagged 1.1275 as a level capping the rebound, citing weak momentum, as reported by Exchange Rates UK. ⁴

If sentiment did the lifting, the hourly chart should look a little stretched. It does.

EURUSD Technical Analysis: RSI Near 70

On the one-hour EURUSD chart, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) read 70.49 as of 09:41 (GMT+8), against its signal line at 69.22, on the TradingView setup used for this analysis. The same indicator dipped close to 20 on Friday night after the payrolls release, so it crossed from one end of its usual range to the other in about two sessions.

Price sits above both moving averages on the same chart: the 200-period MA near 1.1192 and the faster 50-period MA near 1.1180. The 50-period line crossed below the 200-period line on Monday afternoon (GMT+8), in the middle of the rally, which says more about lag than about direction.

Since about 03:00 (GMT+8), EURUSD has held a 1.1215 to 1.1227 band, just under the 1.1227 to 1.1237 area that capped trade on 2 November and again early on 6 November. RSI has sat on the 70 line through the Asian morning while price moved sideways. The chart shows a pause; it does not show which way the pause resolves.

EURUSD Support and Resistance Levels Traders Are Watching, as of 09:41 (GMT+8), 10 November 2026

Level	Zone	What Sits There
Level 2 resistance	1.1268 to 1.1273	Highs of 4 and 5 November; Scotiabank’s 1.1275 reference just above
Level 1 resistance	1.1227 to 1.1237	Tuesday’s Asian-session ceiling and the 2 November high
Cut-off price	1.1223	Vantage EURUSD CFD at 09:41 (GMT+8)
Level 1 support	1.1192 to 1.1200	200-period MA (H1) and the round number
Level 2 support	1.1180	50-period MA (H1)
Level 3 support	1.1131 to 1.1105	Friday’s post-payrolls low and the 2026 low of 29 October

Table 1: Levels read from the Vantage EURUSD CFD H1 chart on TradingView, with the 2026 low from Pound Sterling Live and the 1.1275 reference from Exchange Rates UK (Scotiabank). Data as of 09:41 (GMT+8), 10 November 2026. Indicative only.

For scale, the distance from Friday’s low to the cut-off price is about 92 pips. On one standard lot of 100,000 euros, each EURUSD pip is worth USD10, so that distance equals roughly USD920 of account movement, and the arithmetic works the same in either direction.

Those levels matter more than usual today, because the next catalyst arrives with a gap in it.

Tonight’s CPI Arrives Without a Headline

The BLS publishes October CPI at 08:30 Eastern Time, which is 21:30 (GMT+8) today. ¹³ It issued no October 2025 CPI release because of that year’s federal government shutdown, ¹⁴ so tonight’s report will not include a 12-month change for headline or core prices, as Kiplinger’s preview noted. ¹⁵

The number most headlines lead with is missing, a leftover from a shutdown that ended a year ago. That leaves the monthly figure to carry the release, and a Reuters poll pointed to a 0.3% monthly rise. ⁷

What would change the read: A monthly print above the 0.3% consensus would sit alongside Friday’s payrolls in the case for a December Fed hike; a softer one would weaken that case. Either way, the rate gap that Monday’s move looked past returns to the centre of the chart. The view that sentiment carried the rebound would also weaken if oil and equities reversed Monday’s moves.

What to Watch

Times below are in GMT+8. The Vantage economic calendar carries the full schedule.

• US CPI, 10 November: October consumer prices at 21:30, monthly changes only. ¹³
• US PPI, 13 November: October producer prices at 21:30. ¹⁶
• Euro Area Inflation (Final), 18 November: Eurostat’s full October data after the 4.0% flash. ¹⁷
• US Payrolls, 4 December: The November jobs report at 21:30. ⁵
• Fed Decision, 10 December: The outcome of the 9 December meeting, around 03:00. ⁷
• ECB Decision, 17 December: The next euro area rate decision, around 21:15. ¹⁷

EURUSD Today: Quick Answers

What is moving EURUSD today?

As of 09:41 (GMT+8) on 10 November 2026, the pair was holding Monday’s recovery near 1.1223 ahead of the 21:30 (GMT+8) US CPI release. Monday’s gain coincided with broad dollar weakness as risk appetite improved. ⁷

What is the EURUSD pip value?

One pip is 0.0001. On a standard lot of 100,000 euros it is worth USD10, on a mini lot USD1, and on a micro lot USD0.10, so position size, not the pair, sets how far each pip moves an account.

Is this a EURUSD forecast?

No. This piece describes past price action, current positioning, and what markets are pricing; it does not project where the EURUSD exchange rate goes next.

Gap Risk Around Tonight’s Release

Friday’s payrolls gave the dollar its strongest session in nearly six months, and by Tuesday morning in Asia EURUSD had recovered the whole move. The rate pricing behind Friday’s move did not follow. Tonight’s monthly CPI figure is the next test of whether the chart or the rate futures had the better read.

Scheduled releases like CPI can move EURUSD sharply within minutes, as Friday’s payrolls hour showed on this chart, and spreads can widen around the print. A Stop Loss order is designed to limit losses to a planned size, but in a fast market it may be filled at a worse price than the level set, so a gap past it remains possible.

Leverage magnifies losses as well as potential returns. At 1:30, a 1% move in EURUSD equals a 30% change relative to the margin committed, in either direction. Position sizing in proportion to account equity is one way traders limit how much a single release can move the account balance.

Related Reading

• EURUSD news
• Federal Reserve News 
• ECB News and Rate Discussions

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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