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Key Takeaways

• Vantage USDX traded at 101.786 as of 09:47 (GMT+8) on 5 October 2026, about 3.39% above its 10 September low near 98.45 on the four-hour chart.
• US nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 in September, and futures-implied odds of an October Fed hike fell to 22% from 64% a week earlier.
• The US 10-year Treasury yield stood near 5.26% in Monday’s Asia session, after reaching its highest level since 2002 last week.

The US Dollar Index (USDX) had a perfectly good excuse to fall on Friday, and it mostly declined the offer. Vantage USDX CFD traded at 101.786 as of 09:47 (GMT+8) on 5 October 2026, close to the cash index’s highest level in about 18 months, ¹ one session after US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September against a 90,000 forecast. ²

Odds of an October Fed hike dropped to 22% from 64% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters. ³ Yet the cash US Dollar Index (DXY) gave back only 0.16%. ⁴ Weekend USD holders opened Monday to a near-identical chart.

US Dollar Index current level: Vantage USDX at 101.786, up 0.14% on the four-hour candle as of 09:47 (GMT+8) on 5 October 2026; the cash index’s 52-week range is 95.55 to 102.21. ⁴ The index has quoted about 0.25 points below cash DXY this past week, so chart levels below are index levels.

That gap between a soft labour print and a firm dollar is what I want to unpack: why the miss moved the timing of the next Fed hike but barely moved Treasury yields, and what the USDX chart says about momentum into the FOMC minutes.

Why Did the US Dollar Index Hold Firm?

Vantage USDX held near 101.79 on 5 October 2026 as weak payrolls appeared to shift when markets expect the next Fed hike, not whether it comes. December hike odds stayed above 75%, 10-year yields held above 5%, and the euro sat near 17-month lows.

Weak Payrolls Barely Dented the Dollar

The September jobs report was soft on most headline measures. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, ⁵ largely reflecting more people joining the labour force, ⁶ and July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs. ² Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, summed it up: “The headline readings suggest a bit of softness”. ⁷

The dollar shrugged rather than slid. The DXY index dipped to a session low under 101.70 after the release, then recovered to near 101.90, ² a day after touching 102.21, ⁴ the cash index’s highest level in about 18 months. ¹

Monday’s Asia session added little. Holidays in China, South Korea, and Australia’s New South Wales thinned trading, the euro bounced from a 17-month low to $1.1243, and USDJPY eased to 157.81. ³ Thin holiday liquidity flatters a chart, so I wouldn’t read much into a quiet open. Our USDX News and NFP News feeds carry the week’s US Dollar Index news as it lands.

That explains why hike odds fell. It doesn’t explain why the index gave back so little.

Treasury Yields Kept the Dollar Firm

The answer appears to sit in the bond market. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, unanimously, and the median projection put the policy rate at 4.1% by end-2026, one more hike. ⁸

Friday’s data dented that path rather than erasing it. FedWatch still showed odds above 75% for a December hike, ⁹ and Treasury yields, after dipping on the release, closed higher on Friday as the report didn’t rule out further hikes. ³ The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.29% on 30 September, ¹⁰ in a week when yields hit their highest since 2002, ¹ before easing to near 5.26% on Monday. ³ Our Bond Market News page tracks the climb.

In plain terms, the payrolls miss mostly moved the date of the next hike, not the destination. A dollar priced off 5%-plus yields had little reason to reprice on a calendar change.

The payrolls miss mostly moved the date of the next Fed hike, not the destination.

Not everyone agrees on where that destination is. Futures price more tightening than the Fed’s median of one more hike, and Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said the Fed “can’t hike another 100 basis points from here,” which he said the curve is pricing. ³ Before the data, Ebury’s Global Head of Market Strategy Matthew Ryan wrote that the dollar “seems to have found its footing”. ¹¹ Our Federal Reserve News feed follows the officials.

The euro carries 57.6% of the USDX index’s weight, ¹² which makes the DXY index a euro story with five supporting currencies. With the euro touching a 17-month low before Monday’s bounce, ³ part of the dollar’s strength appears to be euro weakness, a thread our EURUSD News page follows.

If that macro read holds, the USDX chart should reflect it. On price, it does. On momentum, the picture is less tidy.

USDX Chart: Price Held, Momentum Cooled

Vantage USDX CFD bottomed near 98.45 on 10 September, pushed through 100.00 on the 16 September Fed-decision candle, and reached a high near 101.95 on 1 October.

The 50-period moving average crossed above the 200-period near 99.30 around 21 September. As of the cut-off, they sat at 101.09 and 99.69, and price has closed above the 50-period line on every four-hour candle since mid-September.

Momentum is where I get more cautious. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) peaked near 79 on 1 October, roughly level with its peak near 80 on the 16 September Fed-decision candle, though price was almost two points higher. As of the cut-off, the RSI read 66.73, below its 68.93 average, according to the TradingView setup used for this analysis.

The RSI did more travelling in September than most of us, from below 30 on 9 September to near 80 a week later. I read the flat peak as a slower pace of gains, not a change in direction; price still sits above both averages.

That leaves a short list of levels and dates to test the read.

USDX Levels, Dates, and Risk

Table 1: USDX Levels Traders Are Watching, as of 09:47 (GMT+8) on 5 October 2026

Level	Reading	What It Marks
Level 1 resistance	Near 101.95	1 October four-hour high
Level 1 support	Near 101.40	2 October post-payrolls low
Level 2 support	101.09	50-period moving average (4H)
Level 3 support	Near 100.60	25 to 28 September consolidation lows
Level 4 support	99.69	200-period moving average (4H)
Round number	100.00	Reclaimed on the 16 September Fed-decision candle

Levels read from the Vantage USDX four-hour chart on TradingView, as of 09:47 (GMT+8) on 5 October 2026. Indicative only, not trade signals.

Three dates speak directly to this read:

• FOMC Minutes, 8 October 2026: Lands at 02:00 (GMT+8), three weeks after the decision, ¹³ an hour few Asia-based traders choose on purpose. It records the debate behind the median projection of one more 2026 hike.
• US CPI, 14 October 2026: September Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 20:30 (GMT+8). ¹⁴
• FOMC Decision, 29 October 2026: Due at 02:00 (GMT+8); ¹³ hike pricing for it fell from 64% to 22% in a week. ³

The read weakens if the 10-year yield drops below 5.00% while the index holds, or if Vantage USDX closes four-hour candles below the 50-period average near 101.09. It holds while the index tracks yields and a December hike stays priced. Our USD News feed covers the wider picture.

So, back to Friday. The jobs data gave the US Dollar Index a reason to fall, and it gave back 0.16%. Rate pricing moved the date; yields kept the destination in view. CPI on 14 October is the first print to test the destination itself.

USD exposure tends to cluster: USDX, short EURUSD, and long USDJPY positions can all express one view on US yields, so a single surprise can move them together. A Stop Loss can limit losses to a planned size in normal conditions, but it doesn’t guarantee the exit price; releases at 02:00 (GMT+8) and thin holiday sessions like Monday’s can gap through a set level.

Leverage magnifies losses as well as gains. At 1:100, a 1% index move equals a 100% change in the margin committed, and this chart’s move from the 10 September low to the 1 October high was about 3.56%. Position size relative to account equity carries more weight in a month with two scheduled Fed events.

US Dollar Index FAQs

What Is the Ticker Symbol for the US Dollar Index?

Whether you search for the US dollar/USDX index, the DXY index, or the occasional DYX typo, it’s one benchmark with three tickers. TradingView quotes the cash index as DXY; ¹⁵ ICE calls it USDX and lists futures as DX, with a mini contract on ICE Futures Singapore. ¹²

Table 2: US Dollar Index Ticker Comparison

Name	Ticker	What It Is	Where You See It
US Dollar Index (cash)	DXY	Spot index of the USD against six currencies	Charting platforms and terminals
ICE U.S. Dollar Index	USDX	Official index name used by ICE	ICE Data Indices
US Dollar Index futures	DX	Exchange-traded futures contract	ICE Futures U.S.
Vantage USDX	USDX	Contract for Difference (CFD) on the index	Vantage platforms

Sources: ICE, TradingView, Vantage. Accessed on 5 October 2026.

What Are USDX Futures?

USDX futures trade on ICE Futures U.S.; one contract equals $1,000 times the index value, with March, June, September, and December expiries. ¹⁶

What Moves the US Dollar Index Today?

It is a geometric average of six currencies, with the euro at 57.6%. ¹² This month, Treasury yields and Fed pricing appear to have tracked it more closely than any single data print. Figure 1 is a snapshot; for a USDX chart live in real time, open the Vantage USDX on your trading platform.

Related Reading

• USDX News: US Dollar Index Analysis and CFD Coverage
• Federal Reserve News: FOMC Decisions and Policy Updates

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “United States Dollar – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[2] “US Payrolls Miss at 29K and the Dollar Index Drops Below 102.00 – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-payrolls-miss-at-29k-and-the-dollar-index-drops-below-10200-202610021607 Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[3] “Stocks Upbeat, Dollar Wobbles as Fed Hike Bets Recede – Reuters via Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/stocks-upbeat-dollar-wobbles-as-fed-hike-bets-recede-4930982 Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[4] “US Dollar Index Historical Data (DXY) – Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/indices/usdollar-historical-data Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[5] “The Employment Situation – September 2026 – US Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[6] “Labor Market Faltered in September as Jobs Increased by Just 29,000, Unemployment Rate Rose to 4.2% – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[7] “Lower Yields Boost Stocks Early on Soft Jobs Data – Charles Schwab” https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-market-update-open Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[8] “FOMC Statement: September 2026 – J.P. Morgan Asset Management” https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[9] “Traders Now See Little Chance of a Fed Rate Hike in October After Weak Jobs Report – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[10] “Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity (DGS10) – FRED” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/dgs10 Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[11] “Dollar ‘Seems to Have Found Its Footing’ – Ebury via FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-seems-to-have-found-its-footing-payrolls-could-tip-the-scale-towards-october-hike-202609281113 Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[12] “U.S. Dollar Index Futures – ICE” https://www.ice.com/forex/usdx Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[13] “Meeting Calendars, Statements, and Minutes (2021-2027) – Federal Reserve” https://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[14] “Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index – US Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[15] “DXY U.S. Dollar Index Chart – TradingView” https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/ Accessed on 5 October 2026.

[16] “US Dollar Index Futures Contract Specifications – ICE Futures U.S.” https://www.ice.com/api/productguide/spec/194/pdf Accessed on 5 October 2026.