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Key Takeaways

• The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% on 1 October, the highest since 2002, while the S&P 500 closed at 7,666.45, down 0.99% from 25 September.^[1][3]
• WTI settled at $90.42 on 1 October and December Brent at $98.03, with an OPEC+ meeting due on 4 October.^[4][7]
• The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate range to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September; US nonfarm payrolls are due at 20:30 (GMT+8) tonight.^[8][5]

The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% on 1 October, the highest since 2002, even as Fed rate-hike pricing fell to about 34%. Stocks slipped through Thursday, WTI oil settled at $90.42, gold traded near $4,200, and US nonfarm payrolls land tonight at 20:30 (GMT+8).

Market	Level (1 October)	What moved it
S&P 500	7,666.45 (-0.99% since 25 Sep)[6]	Treasury yields, chip support
Nasdaq Composite	26,871.60 (-0.73% since 25 Sep)	AI and chip headlines
10-year Treasury yield	5.34% intraday high (highest since 2002)	Oil, inflation and growth data
WTI crude oil	$90.42 settlement (+1.2%)	Stalled Iran talks
Gold	Near $4,209 (prior week closed below $4,300)	Higher yields

Table 1: Weekly market recap at a glance. Source: La Nacion index closes, Yahoo Finance, Rio Times and FXStreet; percentage changes calculated by Vantage. Indicative only.

Here is the puzzle behind this weekly market recap: Fed rate-hike expectations cooled, and the US 10-year Treasury yield rose anyway. Pricing for a hike at the 28 October meeting fell to about 34% from roughly 70% a week earlier, according to Newsquawk,^[2] yet the yield touched 5.34% on 1 October, its highest since 2002.^[1] All levels are as of 16:30 (GMT+8) on 2 October 2026; US index levels are as of the 1 October close.

So why did the long end ignore the memo? This market analysis follows that thread through bonds, stocks, oil and gold, then maps the week ahead.

Treasury Yields Climb While Fed Hike Pricing Fades

Start with the Fed. It raised its policy rate range by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, in a 12-0 vote.^[8] Then the bond market grabbed the microphone. The 10-year yield jumped to 5.23% on Monday, its highest since 2007,^[9] reached 5.25% on Tuesday,^[10] and touched 5.34% on Thursday, its highest since 2002, before easing.^[1] Our central bank policies guide explains how rate decisions feed into yields, and the bond market news hub tracks daily moves.

Hike pricing went the other way. Softer-than-expected August inflation data helped cool it,^[11][2] and Fed officials sounded split, with some saying more hikes may be needed and Williams seeing no need for urgency.^[2]

Here is the twist. The yield had other fuel. Monday’s jump to 5.23% came amid oil and Middle East conflict uncertainty and hawkish Fed talk from the week before.^[9] Then a revision showed the US economy was stronger in spring than first thought,^[11] and Thursday’s Institute for Supply Management manufacturing prices-paid index hit 77.9 against about 72 expected.^[1] None of that proves a cause, but it kept yields elevated while hike pricing eased. Think of the policy rate as the thermostat setting and the 10-year yield as the market’s guess at how hot the house runs. This week, the guess had more to chew on than the setting.

Hike odds roughly halved in a week, and the 10-year yield still touched its highest level since 2002.

Rising yields coincided with pressure on stocks. They do not explain why chip headlines kept coming.

Stocks Slip as AI Headlines Fight Rising Yields

The stock market this week was a slow leak, not a bang. The S&P 500 slid 0.8% on Monday,^[9] 0.2% on Tuesday,^[10] and 0.3% on Wednesday,^[11] before Thursday’s 0.2% gain ended a three-day losing streak.^[3] Our S&P 500 news page has the daily detail.

Chips cushioned the fall. Nvidia added $150 billion to its share repurchase authorisation on 28 September.^[12] Micron beat on fiscal fourth-quarter revenue ($54.23 billion against $51.49 billion expected), and guidance topped consensus.^[1][13] After hours, the shares dipped on a capital-spending outlook of roughly $25 billion over the first half of fiscal 2027,^[13] then rose on Thursday.^[1] Great numbers, expensive homework.

Private-market AI news supplied the noise. OpenAI was reported to be seeking at least $30 billion at about $1.4 trillion,^[14] Netlist asked US trade regulators to block imports of Micron’s memory chips,^[15] and the White House AI accord is voluntary.^[16] OpenAI has a $1.4 trillion price tag in talks and no ticker, so listed AI names do the talking.

Stocks gave one answer to rising yields. Oil gave another.

Oil Firms on Stalled Iran Talks as Gold Sits Near $4,200

Oil prices ended the week with some muscle: WTI settled at $90.42 on Thursday, up 1.2%, after President Donald Trump denied reports that he would offer Iran sanctions relief.^[4] Rio Times quoted two Brent prices: $103.50 for the November contract and $98.03 for December.^[4] Same crude, two contract months. If you follow Brent through a roll, the contract month matters, and the UKOUSD page has the specifications.

With the US-led coalition’s Iraq mission scheduled to end on 30 September^[17] and OPEC+ meeting on 4 October,^[7] our Brent crude oil news hub has plenty to follow.

Gold told a quieter story. It closed the previous week below $4,300^[18] and traded near $4,209 on Thursday.^[1] Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays no interest, and the softer gold price coincided with the 10-year yield’s climb. Day-to-day moves sit in gold price news.

Beyond the US, two data points pulled in opposite directions.

China Adds Support While UK Confidence Falls

China cut its one-year pledged supplementary lending rate to 1.50% from 1.75% on 29 September, and a first-home mortgage subsidy began on 1 October.^[19] Mainland exchanges stay shut until 8 October,^[20] so China-linked reaction runs through Hong Kong. In the UK, the Lloyds Business Barometer showed confidence falling 12 points to 41%, its lowest since April 2025.^[21] One economy added support. The other lost its nerve.

Both stories land on the same calendar.

Week Ahead: Payrolls, OPEC+, and Fed Minutes

Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls are the week’s final exam, and this piece closes before the results arrive, so no spoilers. Economists expect roughly 84,000 to 98,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.1%, and hourly earnings up 0.3% on the month.^[22][2] The NFP news hub will carry the print. All times below are GMT+8.

• US Nonfarm Payrolls, Fri 2 October, 20:30: September jobs data, the last major US release of the week.^[5]
• OPEC+ Meeting, Sun 4 October: Seven members, including Iraq, review output after holding October levels at September’s.^[7] Rio Times reports expectations for November output to stay unchanged.^[4]
• ISM Services PMI and US Trade Balance, Mon 5 and Tue 6 October, 22:00 and 20:30: The services counterpart to Thursday’s prices-paid reading, then August trade data.
• FOMC Minutes, Thu 8 October, 02:00: Minutes of the 15 to 16 September meeting, released on Wed 7 October at 14:00 ET.^[23] See Federal Reserve news.
• Mainland China Reopens, Thu 8 October: Trading at the China Financial Futures Exchange resumes.^[20]
• US CPI (September), Wed 14 October, 20:30: The next inflation print after the minutes.^[5]

Back to the opening puzzle. Hike odds and the 10-year yield disagreed this week, and oil uncertainty, prices paid at 77.9 and a stronger spring are consistent with the long end following inflation and growth more than the Fed’s next meeting. The takeaway from this weekly market recap: the policy rate and the 10-year yield answer different questions. That read weakens if tonight’s wage data and the minutes pull the long end toward the calmer hike pricing, and holds while strong price and growth readings keep arriving.

Weekend and overnight events can move prices before a Stop Loss can act. Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting falls on a weekend and US data lands in Asia’s evening, so a Stop Loss can help limit a loss to a planned size but may fill at a worse price if the market gaps.

Leverage on index, oil and forex CFDs magnifies gains and losses alike. Position size set against account equity, rather than a view on any single release, determines how far one print can move a balance. Leverage is one factor in the exposure.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

[1] “Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq stage comeback as Treasury yields fall, chip stocks gain – Yahoo Finance” https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-thursday-oct-1-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-080602402.html Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[2] “Preview: US September jobs data due 2 October 2026 – Newsquawk” https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/preview-us-september-jobs-data-is-due-on-2nd-october-2026-at-1330bst0830edt Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[3] “How major US stock indexes fared Thursday 10/1/2026 – La Nacion” https://www.lanacion.com.ar/usa/how-major-us-stock-indexes-fared-thursday-1012026-nid01102026/ Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[4] “Oil Rebounds as Iran Talks Stall, WTI Settles at US$90.42 – Rio Times” https://www.riotimesonline.com/oil-markets-latam-thursday-october-1-2026/ Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[5] “Schedule of Releases for October 2026 – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched_list.htm Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[6] “How major US stock indexes fared Friday 9/25/2026 – La Nacion” https://www.lanacion.com.ar/usa/how-major-us-stock-indexes-fared-friday-9252026-nid25092026/ Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[7] “Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirm commitment to market stability – OPEC” https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/1835613-6-september-2026.html Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[8] “FOMC Statement, 16 September 2026 – Federal Reserve” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[9] “How major US stock indexes fared Monday 9/28/2026 – La Nacion” https://www.lanacion.com.ar/usa/how-major-us-stock-indexes-fared-monday-9282026-nid28092026/ Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[10] “How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday 9/29/2026 – La Nacion” https://www.lanacion.com.ar/usa/how-major-us-stock-indexes-fared-tuesday-9292026-nid29092026/ Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[11] “How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday 9/30/2026 – La Nacion” https://www.lanacion.com.ar/usa/how-major-us-stock-indexes-fared-wednesday-9302026-nid30092026/ Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[12] “NVIDIA Announces a $150 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization Increase – NVIDIA Investor Relations” https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-a-150-Billion-Share-Repurchase-Authorization-Increase/default.aspx Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[13] “MU Stock Drops After Hours: Micron’s Heightened Capex Forecast Overpowers Q4 Beat – Yahoo Finance” https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mu-stock-drops-hours-micron-222532422.html Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[14] “OpenAI Targets $30 Billion in Funding at $1.4 Trillion Value – Bloomberg” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-29/openai-targets-30-billion-in-new-funding-at-1-4-trillion-value Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[15] “Netlist Files New ITC Action Against Micron Technology, Inc. Involving HBM Patents for AI Computing – PR Newswire” https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/netlist-files-new-itc-action-against-micron-technology-inc-involving-hbm-patents-for-ai-computing-302892194.html Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[16] “White House unveils “super intelligence” executive order and industry accord – Nextgov/FCW” https://www.nextgov.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/09/white-house-unveils-super-intelligence-executive-order-and-industry-accord/416325/ Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[17] “Iraq says September 30 withdrawal deadline for US-led coalition final – Al Jazeera” https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/12/iraq-says-sept-30-deadline-to-end-us-led-military-coalition-final Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[18] “Gold Forecast: Hawkish Fed and rising yields keep buyers on the defensive – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-weekly-forecast-bulls-cant-catch-a-break-as-fed-doubles-down-on-hawkish-rhetoric-202609251501 Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[19] “China Subsidizes Mortgage Interest for First-Time Homebuyers – Seoul Economic Daily” https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/09/30/china-subsidizes-mortgage-interest-for-first-time-homebuyers Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[20] “CFFEX Notice On Trading Schedule During National Holidays For Year 2026 – Mondo Visione” https://mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/cffex-notice-on-trading-schedule-during-national-holidays-for-year-2026-20251217/ Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[21] “UK Business Confidence Hits Lowest Since April 2025: Lloyds Survey – IndexBox” https://www.indexbox.io/blog/uk-business-confidence-falls-to-lowest-since-april-2025-on-iran-war-costs/ Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[22] “Stocks Up on Firm Tech Despite 24-Year Yield Highs – Charles Schwab” https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-market-update-open Accessed on 2 October 2026.

[23] “Federal Reserve Board – October 2026 Calendar” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm Accessed on 2 October 2026.