Key Takeaways

• XAUUSD traded at $3,940.17 as of 10:25 (GMT+8) on 4 November 2026, between its 50-period ($3,926.11) and 200-period ($3,994.51) moving averages on the hourly chart.
• Gold rebounded from a 30 October low near $3,871, its weakest level since October 2025, but the $3,965 to $3,971 zone capped four rallies between 2 and 4 November.
• CME FedWatch put the odds of a December Fed rate hike at 79%, up from 72%, after US job openings rose to 7.52 million in September. ¹

The gold price today sat near $3,940 an ounce at 10:25 (GMT+8) on 4 November 2026, and its best day this week came as Middle East risk eased: oil slid about 8% on Monday on signs of US-Iran diplomacy, and gold jumped 1.80%. ² Safe haven? This week, gold behaved more like oil’s mirror image.

On the Vantage XAUUSD feed, the price stood at $3,940.17 at the cut-off, with the hourly candle 0.17% lower. That leaves gold 29.51% below its 28 January record of $5,589.38, ³ and just 1.79% above the 30 October low, its weakest since October 2025. ⁴

So what is moving the gold rate? This XAUUSD analysis today, part of our running gold news coverage, walks through the chart, the oil-to-Fed chain behind it, and the dates that could change the read before Friday’s US payrolls.

Gold Price Today at a Glance

Gold price today: XAUUSD traded at $3,940.17 at 10:25 (GMT+8) on 4 November 2026, capped below a stubborn $3,965 to $3,971 ceiling. Cheaper oil lifted gold this week, but strong US jobs data pushed December Fed hike odds to 79%, keeping the rebound in check.

XAUUSD Snapshot as of 10:25 (GMT+8), 4 November 2026

Metric	Reading	What It Shows
XAUUSD Price (Vantage Feed)	$3,940.17	Hourly candle 0.17% lower at the cut-off
50-Period MA (H1)	$3,926.11	Price sits above it
200-Period MA (H1)	$3,994.51	Price sits 1.38% below it; line sloping lower
RSI (14, H1)	53.77	Neutral; up from about 17 on 30 October
Overhead Ceiling	$3,965 to $3,971	Capped four rallies from 2 to 4 November
December Fed Hike Odds	79% (CME FedWatch)	Up from 72% after the JOLTS release
Distance From Record	29.51% below $5,589.38	Record set on 28 January 2026

Source: TradingView H1 chart of the Vantage XAUUSD feed, read at 10:25 (GMT+8) on 4 November 2026; hike odds via TheStreet Pro citing CME FedWatch; record via GoldSilver.

XAUUSD Technical Analysis: A Ceiling Tested Four Times

On the hourly (H1) XAUUSD chart, gold fell about 5.19% from a 28 October high near $4,083, printed shortly after the Federal Reserve decision, to the 30 October low near $3,871. By our arithmetic (done with a calculator, not optimism), the bounce to $3,940.17 had clawed back 32.63% of that drop.

Then it hit the same wall four times. Gold reached $3,965 to $3,971 in Monday’s US session, early in Tuesday’s Asia session, just before Tuesday’s US jobs data, and around 09:00 (GMT+8) this morning. Four knocks, no answer.

For gold technical analysis today, the moving averages (MAs) split the verdict. Price sat above the 50-period MA at $3,926.11 but 1.38% below the 200-period MA at $3,994.51, which has sloped lower all week. With the 50-period line under the 200-period line, the hourly alignment is still the textbook gold bearish set-up.

Momentum is gentler. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis sank to about 17 late on 30 October and read 53.77 at the cut-off, just above its own average of 52.34.

The chart shows where the rebound stalled. It does not explain why gold fell hardest on a day its usual drivers turned friendly.

Why Gold Traded Oil Instead of Fear

The obvious explanation is safe-haven demand around the Middle East conflict, and 30 October breaks it. Treasury yields fell and the dollar retreated that day, yet gold dropped about 3% to a one-year low, Kitco reported. ⁵

The rest is rates. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its policy range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October by a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a 25 basis-point hike. ⁶ Crude gained more than 10% in October as markets priced a wider escalation. ⁷ Higher oil feeds inflation, which keeps hikes alive and raises the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest.

Monday ran that chain in reverse. “Weaker oil prices have provided some relief,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, though he added that markets still expected a December hike. ⁸

Tuesday pulled the same lever from the jobs side. September job openings rose by 333,000 to 7.5 million, a move the US Bureau of Labor Statistics described as little changed. ⁹ Rate futures were less relaxed about it: December hike odds climbed to 79% from 72%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose six basis points to 4.95%. ¹

“The dollar has been strengthening, and yields are going higher,” Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said on Tuesday. ¹⁰ Spot gold ended the day 0.50% lower at $3,927.18. ¹¹ A reported US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island barely moved either market, with WTI crude settling 0.38% lower at $96.09. ¹²

So why has gold not fallen further?

What Is Holding Gold’s Floor

Part of the answer is official buying. Central banks added 321 tonnes of gold in the third quarter, up 42% year on year, and 675 tonnes in the first nine months of 2026, according to the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends report as summarised by Kitco. ¹³

There is a slower-moving support, too. “Deficits should persist no matter the outcome of the midterms,” said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke, pointing to the US debt burden as longer-term support. ²

The XAUUSD news today came out of the Asia session. Early US midterm vote counts favoured the Democrats, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points to 4.90%, Bloomberg reported. ¹⁴ XAUUSD rose to about $3,965 around 09:00 (GMT+8), then slipped back to $3,940.17 by 10:25 (GMT+8), matching the choppy trade Bloomberg described. ¹⁵

Now the detail the headlines skipped. Price hit the same ceiling on every test, but the hourly RSI peaked lower each time: about 66 on Monday, 62 on Tuesday, and 57 this morning. Price held its ground. Momentum did not.

For now, gold appears to be trading the Middle East conflict through oil and the Fed’s rate path, rather than as a safe-haven story.

Think of oil as gold’s thermostat this week: when crude cooled, rate fears cooled with it. Tuesday showed jobs data can turn the same dial, which suggests the rebound ran on oil relief, not on a change in the rate outlook.

If oil and rates are the levers, the calendar matters more than any single line on the chart.

Gold Support and Resistance Today

XAUUSD H1 Levels as of 10:25 (GMT+8), 4 November 2026

Level	Price Zone	What the Chart Shows
Level 3 Resistance	Near $4,083	28 October high, printed after the Fed decision
Level 2 Resistance	$3,994.51 to $4,000	200-period MA, sloping lower, plus the round number
Level 1 Resistance	$3,965 to $3,971	Capped four rallies between 2 and 4 November
Pivot	$3,926.11	50-period MA
Level 1 Support	$3,893 to $3,897	3 November session low
Level 2 Support	Near $3,871	30 October low, weakest since October 2025

Source: TradingView H1 chart of the Vantage XAUUSD feed, read at 10:25 (GMT+8) on 4 November 2026. Levels are reference points, not trade signals.

Dates to Watch (GMT+8)

• ISM Services PMI, 4 November: 23:00. The first test of Tuesday’s jump in hike odds.
• US Midterm Results, This Week: Final counts, which already moved Treasury yields this morning. ¹⁴
• October Non-Farm Payrolls, 6 November: 21:30, dinner time across most of Asia. Consensus sits near 65,000 jobs, according to Charles Schwab. ¹⁶
• US CPI for October, 10 November: 21:30. The last inflation print before the Fed’s December decision.
• Fed Decision, 10 December: 03:00, closing the 8 to 9 December meeting.
• Oil and US-Iran Talks, Unscheduled: The channel that moved gold most this week.

Checklist: What Would Change the Read

• An hourly close above the 200-period MA, which XAUUSD has not managed since the 28 October high.
• An hourly close below the $3,893 to $3,897 zone that held on 3 November.
• Gold rising alongside crude on a fresh escalation headline.
• December hike odds falling without any move in oil.

Gold Price Forecast and Expectations: What Markets Are Pricing

Search for a gold price prediction, an XAUUSD forecast today, or a prediction on gold rate this week, and confident numbers are everywhere. Vantage does not publish gold price forecasts or XAUUSD predictions, but we can show what markets and banks are already pricing.

Short-term gold price expectations hang on one number: December hike odds, at 79% on CME FedWatch after Tuesday’s data. ¹ Gold rate expectations among banks have drifted lower all year; HSBC, for example, cut its 2026 average gold forecast to $4,490 an ounce on 1 October, according to GoldSilver. ³

The honest gold market prediction is that there is no single one, and the published ones keep moving. For the gold price future, the more useful question is which driver, oil or jobs, wins this week; any XAUUSD forecast or prediction about gold rate that skips that chain misses half the story. Our guide explains how the gold price responds to rates.

Gold Price Today: Quick Answers

What Is the Gold Rate Today?

Today gold rate on the Vantage feed was $3,940.17 an ounce at 10:25 (GMT+8) on 4 November 2026, about 1.38% below the hourly 200-period MA.

Is the XAUUSD Chart Bearish Right Now?

On structure, yes: the 50-period MA sat below the 200-period MA, and price traded under the 200-period line. Momentum read neutral, with the RSI near 54. The chart is undecided and has two moving averages to prove it.

Where Can I Follow XAUUSD Live?

The XAUUSD price streams live on the Vantage XAUUSD page linked above. The gold price news archive collects our earlier coverage for context.

Risk Picture Into Friday’s Payrolls

Gold’s best day this week came as Middle East risk eased, and its worst came on a jobs report. This morning followed the script: yields fell, XAUUSD tested $3,965 again, and the move did not hold. While oil and hike odds move together, that ceiling and the 200-period MA are where the tension shows.

XAUUSD moved between about $3,893 and $3,971 on 3 November alone, a range of about 2.00% in one session on the H1 chart read at 10:25 (GMT+8), 4 November 2026. Headline-driven sessions can gap through levels, especially around 21:30 (GMT+8) data releases. A Stop Loss is designed to limit losses to a planned size, but it does not guarantee execution at the set price when the market gaps.

Leverage is double-edged: on XAUUSD it magnifies losses as well as potential returns relative to the capital committed, and three scheduled US releases fall within the next seven days. Position size is often expressed as a percentage of account equity; at a fixed percentage of planned risk, a wider hourly range means a smaller position for the same exposure.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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