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Key Takeaways

• EUR/USD fell to near 1.1150 on 12 October 2026, below the 5 October low near 1.1160 and its weakest level since May 2025. ^1,3
• The drop came as Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack argued for higher rates, while the French-German 10-year bond spread had stabilised near 137 basis points (bp), according to Société Générale. ^1,2
• US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September lands on 14 October 2026, ahead of the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) decisions on 28 and 29 October. ^2,3,9

EUR/USD slipped to near 1.1150 in New York trading on 12 October 2026, its weakest level since May 2025, on a Monday when US cash bond markets were shut for Columbus Day. ^1,3 Holiday sessions are supposed to be sleepy. This one printed a 17-month low.

As of 10:07 (GMT+8) on 13 October 2026, the euro dollar rate stood at 1.11705 on Vantage’s EURUSD price feed, about 20 pips above that overnight trough after a modest lift in Asian trading.

I’ll admit the timing caught my eye. For the past fortnight, coverage from CNBC to FXStreet has framed the slide largely as a French debt story, ^3,4 and KBC summed it up in six words: “Euro weakness took over from dollar strength”. ⁴ Yet by Monday, Société Générale described the French-German bond spread as stagnating, while hawkish Fed commentary, firmer oil, and fresh geopolitical headlines lined up with the dollar’s gains. ^1,2

That mismatch is what this EURUSD analysis unpacks: which side of the pair carried the latest low, what the hourly chart shows after the bounce, and what it changes about the risk picture into Wednesday’s US inflation data.

Why Did EUR/USD Fall to a 17-Month Low?

EUR/USD fell to near 1.1150 on 12 October 2026, its weakest level since May 2025, as hawkish Fed comments and firmer oil lifted the dollar. French-German bond spreads, which widened through late September, stabilised near 137bp, so Monday’s leg came mainly from the dollar side.

Euro Side vs Dollar Side: What Moved EUR/USD

Driver	Euro Side	Dollar Side
Main Pressure	French debt stress; OAT swap spread above 140bp in the week to 2 October 4	Fed hike to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September 5
What Happened on 12 October	French-German 10-year spread stable near 137bp, per Société Générale 2	Hammack backed higher rates; WTI rose more than 1.60% to $93.17 1
Central Bank Pricing	ECB deposit rate 2.50%; tightening bets scaled back 4,6	December Fed hike odds at 86.8% (CME FedWatch, 5 October) 3
Next Test	ECB decision on 29 October 9	US CPI on 14 October; Fed decision on 28 October 2,3

Table 1: Euro-side and dollar-side drivers of EUR/USD. Sources: FXStreet, CNBC, KBC, and the European Central Bank, accessed on 13 October 2026.

The table is the short version. The chart is where the long version starts.

EURUSD Chart Shows Three Lower Highs

The hourly EUR USD chart traced a tidy staircase last week. Swing highs formed near 1.1277 on 6 October, 1.1243 on 9 October, and 1.1217 early on 12 October, each one lower than the last. Three steps down in five sessions: the chart was repeating itself, just a little lower each time.

As of 10:07 (GMT+8) on 13 October, the 50-period moving average (MA) sat near 1.1193 and the 200-period MA near 1.1224. Both sloped lower, and the 50-period line held under the 200-period line across the whole window.

Here is the part of this EUR/USD technical analysis I’d underline. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis dropped below 30 late on 12 October (GMT+8), then recovered to 46.13 by the cut-off, against its signal average at 31.90. That is roughly 20 points of RSI for roughly 20 pips of price. I read that as momentum resetting faster than price, not as the trend changing.

The daily view is less forgiving. FXStreet put the daily RSI near 22, deep in oversold territory, with the 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages bunched near 1.1496. ¹ The hourly gauge has reset; the daily one has not.

So the chart shows where the pair went. It does not explain why the newest low arrived on a day French bonds were calm.

French Spreads Drove the Euro’s Slide

The decline actually began on the dollar side. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate range by 25bp to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, its first hike since 2023. ⁵ KBC traced the start of the euro vs USD drop from above 1.16 to that hawkish turn. ⁴

Then France took over. KBC data showed the French 10-year government bond (OAT) swap spread widening from 80bp at the end of August to an all-time high above 140bp in the week to 2 October, as investors weighed a draft budget implying at least another year with a deficit of around 5%. ⁴ In plain terms, investors demanded a bigger premium to hold French debt, and the euro footed part of the bill. KBC’s swap-spread figure is a different measure from the French-German bond spread Société Générale cites below, so the two numbers are not directly comparable. Our euro news coverage has tracked each step of that spread.

Euro-area rates offered little cushion. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September, ⁶ yet KBC noted that money markets scaled back ECB tightening bets as spreads widened, even after flash euro-area inflation came in at 3.8% year on year in September. ⁴ By 29 September the pair had touched 1.1312, and Bloomberg reported the euro was on course for its worst month since July 2025. ⁸

French bonds carried the baton through late September. On Monday, they appeared to hand it to the Fed.

Hawkish Fed Talk Carried Monday’s Leg

Monday’s fresh low arrived without a fresh leg of French stress. Société Générale described the 10-year OAT/Bund spread as stagnating around 137bp, which, in the bank’s view, removed one source of euro weakness. ² French fiscal worries had not gone away, and FXStreet also flagged Spain’s snap general election on 29 November, ² but the spread itself was not widening. The push came mainly from the other side of the pair.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argued for higher interest rates as inflation broadens, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished Monday up more than 1.60% at $93.17 as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and doubts over a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire on energy facilities kept supply worries alive. ¹ EUR/USD traded near 1.1155, down 0.40%, late in the New York session. ¹ For more on the policy side, see our Federal Reserve news feed.

As of 5 October, CME FedWatch put the chance of an October Fed hike at 23.8%, down from 70.9% a week earlier after soft US jobs data, while December hike odds stood at 86.8%. ³ Hammack’s remarks landed on a market that still leaned towards one more move this year. Our US dollar news coverage tracks how that pricing shifts.

Put together, Monday’s 17-month low looks less like a new euro problem and more like the dollar picking up where French bonds left off.

Monday’s 17-month low came with French spreads flat and US cash bonds closed; the dollar side of EUR/USD appeared to do the work.

Positioning adds a second layer. Société Générale analysts noted that “EUR/USD short positions are the highest since Dec-24”. ² Crowded positioning does not set direction, but it can make the reaction to a data surprise sharper in either direction.

Which raises the practical question: where does the chart sit relative to the week’s reference points?

EUR/USD Levels Traders Are Watching

EUR/USD H1 Levels as of 10:07 (GMT+8), 13 October 2026

Level	Price	What It Marks
Resistance 2	1.1243	9 October Swing High (H1)
Resistance 1	1.1224	200-Period MA (H1)
Pivot	1.1193	50-Period MA (H1)
Support 1	1.1165	7 October Swing Low (H1)
Support 2	1.1150	12 October Low, Weakest Since May 2025 1,3
Support 3	1.1111 / 1.1087	KBC-Cited 50% Retracement and May 2025 Low 4

Table 2: Levels read from the Vantage EURUSD H1 chart on TradingView as of 10:07 (GMT+8) on 13 October 2026; Support 3 from KBC via FXStreet. ⁴ Indicative only, for informational purposes.

At the cut-off, the euro USD exchange rate sat between Support 1 and the pivot, roughly 20 pips above Monday’s low and roughly 22 pips under the 50-period MA.

The staircase read weakens on an hourly close back above the 50-period MA near 1.1193, a level price had not reclaimed since early 12 October. It strengthens on a return below 1.1150, where KBC’s 1.1111 and 1.1087 references are the next marked levels. ⁴

Euro to USD Forecast: What Analysts Are Watching

I’ll stay on the evidence side of the euro to USD forecast debate: Vantage does not publish a EUR USD forecast, but the analysts quoted here have been clear about what they are watching.

Ebury’s base case is that the Fed holds in October; its Global Head of Market Strategy, Matthew Ryan, expects “a moderate (i.e. 0.2% or less) monthly core print” on Wednesday and noted that an upside surprise could quickly revive pricing for an October Fed hike. ⁷ On the euro side, Citi analysts flagged that French fiscal risk could lead the ECB to pause its hikes after December, or sooner if stress spreads. ² Any euro US dollar forecast built this week rests on those two variables.

Five dated items stand out over the next three weeks:

• US CPI, 14 October: September CPI data is due at 08:30 ET, or 20:30 (GMT+8), which parks the week’s main US release in the Asian dinner hour. ²
• US Producer Prices and Retail Sales, 15 October: Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data follow on Thursday. ²
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, This Week: FXStreet listed Warsh among the Fed speakers due this week, after Hammack’s Monday remarks. ¹
• French Spreads, Daily: Société Générale placed the 10-year OAT/Bund spread near 137bp against a longer-run mean of about 110bp; ² renewed widening would put the euro side back in focus.
• Fed and ECB Decisions, 28 and 29 October: The FOMC announces its October decision on 28 October, and the ECB Governing Council follows on 29 October. ^3,9

EURUSD News Today: Questions Traders Are Asking

Our EURUSD news today hub carries the running coverage of these questions.

Is There a EURUSD Forecast Today?

No. Instead of a EUR/USD price forecast, this piece reports what the euro to USD rate has done and what markets are pricing; as of 5 October, CME FedWatch put October Fed hike odds at 23.8% and December odds at 86.8%. ³

Does This EUR/USD Analysis Include Trading Signals?

No. The levels in Table 2 are chart reference points, not EUR/USD trading signals; how anyone uses them depends on their own plan and risk tolerance.

How Is EURUSD Investing Different From Trading the Pair?

For a dollar-based holder, euros or euro-denominated assets held outright gain or lose value in line with the exchange rate, while leveraged forex trading magnifies both potential returns and losses relative to the margin posted.

What Time Is US CPI in GMT+8?

The September report is due at 08:30 ET on 14 October, which is 20:30 (GMT+8). Spreads and short-term volatility in EUR to USD pricing can shift in the minutes around the release.

Managing Exposure Around the US Inflation Print

Monday’s low looked like a holiday fluke at first: a 17-month extreme printed while US cash bonds were closed. The evidence points somewhere plainer. The euro side, French spreads, was steady; the dollar side, Fed rhetoric and oil, was not. ^1,2 Wednesday’s CPI tests that dollar side directly, and the French spread remains the variable that could bring the euro side back to the front.

EUR/USD moved about 0.40% in a thin holiday session, ¹ and data days can bring larger, faster moves, including price gaps. A Stop Loss order sets in advance the price at which a position closes, which limits losses to a planned size in normal conditions, although in fast markets the fill can differ from the level set.

Leverage magnifies both potential returns and losses relative to the margin posted, so a move that looks small on the chart, such as the roughly 20-pip lift in Asian trading, can have a larger effect on an account balance. Position size relative to account equity determines how much of a balance any given pip move represents.

Related Reading

• EURUSD News
• Euro News
• US Dollar News

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References

[1] “Euro Collapses Below 1.12 as Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Lifts the US Dollar – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-collapses-below-112-as-fed-hawkish-rhetoric-lifts-the-us-dollar-202610122222 Accessed on 13 October 2026.

[2] “Euro Gathers Strength Above 1.1150 Despite France’s Fiscal Concerns – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gathers-strength-above-11150-despite-frances-fiscal-concerns-202610130154 Accessed on 13 October 2026.

[3] “Euro Sinks to 17-Month Low on France Debt Fears – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/05/dollar-holds-firm-as-french-fiscal-woes-keep-euro-on-back-foot.html Accessed on 13 October 2026.

[4] “Euro Weakness Took Over From Dollar Strength (KBC Market Research Desk) – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/euro-weakness-took-over-from-dollar-strength-202610050656 Accessed on 13 October 2026.

[5] “Fed Approves Interest Rate Hike, Signals One More to Come This Year – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html Accessed on 13 October 2026.

[6] “The Euro Drops to Its Lowest Since July as the Dollar Keeps Climbing – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-euro-drops-to-its-lowest-since-july-as-the-dollar-keeps-climbing-202609222219 Accessed on 13 October 2026.

[7] “Fed Hold Remains Base Case, September Inflation Surprise Could Push Dollar (Ebury) – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fed-hold-remains-base-case-september-inflation-surprise-could-push-dollar-202610121143 Accessed on 13 October 2026.

[8] “Euro Falls to 16-Month Low as Hawkish Fed-Hike Bets Boost Dollar – Bloomberg” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-29/euro-falls-to-16-month-low-as-hawkish-fed-hike-bets-boost-dollar Accessed on 13 October 2026.

[9] “Meetings of the Governing Council and General Council – European Central Bank” https://ecb.europa.eu/events/calendar/mgcgc/html/index.en.html Accessed on 13 October 2026.