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• EUR/USD traded at 1.12097 at 10:12 (GMT+8) on 8 October 2026, below its 50-period and 200-period hourly moving averages.
• The pair tested the 1.1163 to 1.1166 area twice this week, on 5 and 7 October, amid concerns over France’s public finances.
• Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting showed most officials judged another rate hike likely to be appropriate by year-end.⁸

The euro fell as low as 1.1160 against the US dollar in Monday’s Asian session, its weakest level since May 2025, three days after the kind of US jobs miss that usually weighs on the dollar.^1,4 September payrolls rose by just 29,000 against expectations of 90,000.² As of 10:12 (GMT+8) on 8 October 2026, EURUSD traded at 1.12097 on the Vantage price feed, less than 50 pips above that low.

I spent this week with Washington circled on my calendar; the EUR/USD chart spent it reacting to Paris. That mismatch is what this EURUSD analysis unpacks: why French bond spreads, more than Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB) rate pricing, set the pace for the euro dollar rate, and what that changes about the risk picture into US inflation data on 14 October.

Quick Answer: Why EUR/USD Fell This Week

EUR/USD fell to a 17-month low near 1.1160 on 5 October 2026 as concerns over France’s public finances outweighed weak US jobs data. As of 10:12 (GMT+8) on 8 October, the pair traded at 1.12097, below both hourly moving averages, with US inflation data next.

Date and Time (GMT+8)	What Happened	What the EUR/USD Chart Did
2 October 2026, 20:30	US payrolls rose 29,000 against 90,000 expected	Bounced to 1.1286 by 22:00, then faded
5 October 2026, 10:00	French fiscal worries carried into Asian trading	About 65 pips in one hour; low near 1.1163
6 October 2026, 15:00 to 20:00	French yields slid after a spending-cut pledge	Rallied to near 1.1277
7 October 2026, 15:00 to 20:00	French bonds came under renewed pressure	Fell to near 1.1166
8 October 2026, 02:00	Fed minutes released	About seven pips in one hour

Table 1: What moved EUR/USD this week. Price moves read from the Vantage EURUSD H1 chart on TradingView; events from Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, Business Recorder, Reuters, and FXStreet.^2,4,6,7,11 Indicative only.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Two Tests Near 1.1163

Read left to right, the EURUSD chart is a week in three moves. The pair slid from near 1.1380 on 30 September to around 1.1216 by the end of 1 October, bounced to 1.1286 after the payrolls miss, then dropped to near 1.1163 between 10:00 and 12:00 (GMT+8) on Monday.

Wednesday ran the same play: a slide from 15:00 (GMT+8), as Europe opened, reached near 1.1166, three pips above Monday’s low. At the cut-off, price sat about 14 pips below the 50-period Moving Average (MA) at 1.12236 and below the 200-period MA at 1.12828, which sloped lower across the chart.

The momentum read tells a different story. On the TradingView setup used for this analysis, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped below 30 on 1, 5, and 7 October and touched 70 once, on Tuesday, a week spent commuting between its two dashed lines. At the cut-off it read 51.89, above its signal average at 42.29. I read that as momentum recovering faster than price, which is not the same thing as a change in direction.

Those are the EUR/USD trading signals I would point to: not trade calls, but evidence of where pressure built and eased. What the chart cannot show is why a soft US jobs report failed to catch the euro.

French Bond Spreads Outweighed a Weak US Jobs Print

The US data briefly favoured the euro: payrolls missed expectations by 61,000,² and the pair reached 1.1286 at 22:00 (GMT+8) that Friday. The bounce lasted one session.

The real pressure was building in Paris. An underwhelming 2027 budget plan from Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government did little to reassure the French bond market, and France’s 10-year yield reached 4.8%, AFP reported.^3,5 The gap between French and German 10-year yields ended last week at 140 basis points (bp), a weekly widening of 34 bp, the largest in 17 years according to Reuters data cited by Yahoo Finance.⁴ French bonds steadied slightly on Monday, Reuters reported, but the euro had already set its low in Asian trading.¹

Spain’s snap election call added to the strain. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, described the slide in French bonds and the euro as “a sign that Europe is out of favour with investors.” ⁵ By Monday, the euro had logged four straight weekly falls worth 3.1%.¹

Then the link ran in reverse. On Tuesday, the euro posted its largest one-day gain in seven weeks as French yields slid,⁶ after presidential candidate Marine Le Pen raised her proposed spending cuts to EUR140 billion from EUR125 billion, Reuters reported.⁷ That rally peaked near 1.1277 at 20:00 (GMT+8).

It did not stick. On Wednesday, French bonds came under renewed pressure and the euro was down 0.65% at 1.1185 in New York trading, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.41% to 102.33, according to Reuters.⁷ For anyone following EURUSD news today, that is the week in one line: French credit risk first, US data second.

If French spreads explain the euro’s side of the pair, the Fed minutes should have explained the dollar’s. They barely registered.

The Federal Reserve Minutes Barely Moved the Euro to USD Rate

The Fed minutes were not dull. All participants backed September’s 25 bp hike to a 3.75% to 4.00% range, the Fed’s first increase in more than three years, and most saw another hike as likely appropriate by year-end.⁸

The market had already done its homework. Investors pared bets on back-to-back hikes and now see the Fed on hold this month and moving again in December, according to Reuters,⁹ with CME FedWatch showing a 22% implied chance of an October hike.¹⁰ ING put the prevailing view plainly: “a hike in December remains the base case.” ¹¹

Yields appear to have done more of the dollar’s lifting. The US 10-year yield traded above 5.3% early on Wednesday,¹² and National Australia Bank’s Ray Attrill said on 1 October that the dollar had been more sensitive to 10-year Treasuries than to Fed hike timing.¹³ The hourly candle that carried the release, at 02:00 (GMT+8) on 8 October, ranged about seven pips. For a document markets had circled for three weeks, it was a quiet hour.

The textbook offered the euro some support too. Euro-area inflation rose to 3.8% in September from 3.2%, with energy prices up 18.8% from a year earlier, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate,¹⁴ and late-September rate hike pricing put roughly a 30% chance on another ECB hike on 29 October, FXStreet reported.¹⁵

Rabobank’s head of FX strategy, Jane Foley, put the paradox in one phrase last week: despite an ECB that was among the first in the G10 to hike, “the euro hasn’t been able to get traction.” ¹³ This week, I read rising French yields as a risk premium on the euro rather than a reward for holding it.

The hour that carried the Fed minutes moved EUR/USD about seven pips. Monday’s 10:00 (GMT+8) hour, as French fiscal worries dominated Asian trading, moved it about 65.

That is roughly nine times the range, and it landed before European bond markets opened, so traders in Asia saw the reaction first. Which leaves the practical question: which levels and dates are now in play?

EUR/USD Levels and Dates Traders Are Watching

Reference	Level	What the EUR USD Chart Shows
Upper Reference 3	1.12828	200-period MA (H1), sloping lower
Upper Reference 2	1.1277	6 October high, after the spending-cut pledge
Upper Reference 1	1.12236	50-period MA (H1), about 14 pips above price
Cut-Off Price	1.12097	Vantage EURUSD feed at 10:12 (GMT+8)
Lower Reference 1	1.1166	7 October low
Lower Reference 2	1.1163	5 October low, near the weakest level since May 2025

Table 2: EUR/USD levels traders are watching as of 10:12 (GMT+8) on 8 October 2026, read from the Vantage EURUSD H1 chart on TradingView; 17-month low context from Reuters.¹ Indicative only.

My read weakens if French spreads narrow and the euro still fails to recover, which would point back to rate differentials. An hourly close above the 50-period MA would be the first since before Wednesday’s European open.

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI), 14 October 2026, 20:30 (GMT+8): The next test of December hike pricing.^11,16
• Eurostat Final Inflation (September), 16 October 2026: Confirms or revises the 3.8% flash reading.¹⁷
• French-German 10-Year Spread, Daily: The gauge behind this week’s euro swings, from last week’s widening to Tuesday’s relief.^4,6
• FOMC Decision, 28 October 2026, and ECB Decision, 29 October 2026: Back-to-back policy decisions.^15,18

EUR/USD Questions Traders Are Asking

Is There a EUR/USD Forecast Today?

Not from Vantage. Rather than a EUR/USD price forecast, this analysis reports what markets are pricing, such as CME FedWatch’s 22% implied chance of an October Fed hike,¹⁰ and the levels traders are watching.

Why Is the Euro Falling Against the US Dollar?

Over the past week, the euro to USD rate fell alongside pressure on French government bonds and firm US yields, with the Fed’s first hike since 2023 in the background.^1,12 Our euro news hub tracks each EUR to USD driver as it lands.

What Does the EUR USD Chart Show Today?

As of 10:12 (GMT+8) on 8 October 2026, the hourly chart showed the euro vs USD at 1.12097, below both moving averages, with the RSI near 52 after two tests of the 1.1163 area.

Does This Matter for Longer-Term EURUSD Investing Views?

The same two inputs apply on longer horizons: the gap between US and euro-area yields, which has favoured the dollar since US Treasury yields posted their largest quarterly rise since 1994, and the French-German spread, which sets how much risk premium the euro usd rate carries.^4,13

Headline Gap Risk for EUR/USD Traders

The week opened with a puzzle: a weak US jobs report, then a 17-month low for the euro dollar rate. My read is that the dollar’s rate support stayed in place and French fiscal risk did the rest, with Tuesday’s spending-cut headline the one session where Paris pushed the other way. US CPI on 14 October is the next test of that read.

This week’s largest hourly move arrived in Asian hours amid French and Spanish political worries, not on a scheduled release, which is the kind of gap risk overnight positions carry. A Stop Loss order sets in advance the price at which a position closes, which limits losses to a planned size in normal conditions; in a fast or gapping market, the fill can be worse than the level set.

Leverage magnifies both gains and losses on an account balance. Vantage offers leverage of up to 1:1000 on eligible accounts on forex Contracts for Difference (CFDs), and at that ratio a 0.50% move in EUR/USD, smaller than Monday’s single 10:00 (GMT+8) candle, changes a position’s value by an amount equal to five times the margin used. Sizing positions as a percentage of account equity is one way traders keep a move of that size proportional to the account.

Related Reading

• EURUSD News
• Federal Reserve News
• Bond Market News

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References

[1] “Euro drops to 17-month low on France debt concerns – Reuters via Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/dollar-holds-firm-as-french-fiscal-woes-keep-euro-on-back-foot-4930983 Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[2] “Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate – EUR/USD – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[3] “Euro slides as concerns about French debt mount – France 24” https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20261005-euro-slides-as-concerns-about-french-debt-mount Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[4] “Euro falls to 17-month low amid French debt crisis fears – Yahoo Finance” https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/euro-falls-17-month-low-131120494.html Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[5] “Euro slides as worries about French debt grow – Yahoo Finance” https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/most-asia-stocks-rally-goldilocks-025417566.html Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[6] “Dollar holds losses as markets await Fed minutes, speakers – Business Recorder” https://www.brecorder.com/news/40443050/dollar-holds-losses-as-markets-await-fed-minutes-speakers Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[7] “Euro stumbles toward 17-month lows, dollar rises with Fed minutes on tap – Reuters via Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/dollar-holds-losses-as-markets-await-fed-minutes-speakers-4935511 Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[8] “Fed minutes show most policymakers see another rate hike by year end – Investing.com” https://investing.com/news/economy-news/fed-minutes-show-most-policymakers-see-another-rate-hike-by-year-end-4937310 Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[9] “Fed policymakers divided over rate-hike logic in September, minutes show – Reuters via Investing.com” https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/fed-policymakers-divided-over-ratehike-logic-in-september-minutes-show-4937320 Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[10] “Euro recovers to near 1.1200 on softer US Dollar, eyes on France debt concerns – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-recovers-to-near-11200-on-softer-us-dollar-eyes-on-france-debt-concerns-202610080158 Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[11] “Fed Minutes confirm another rate hike was already in sight – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-set-to-provide-some-insight-into-the-timing-of-next-rate-hikes-202610071400 Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[12] “Forex Today: US Dollar stabilizes as bond yields recover ahead of FOMC Minutes – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-stabilizes-as-bond-yields-recover-ahead-of-fomc-minutes-202610070655 Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[13] “Euro slides to 17-month low, hit by rates and inflation mix – Reuters via Kitco” https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-10-01/euro-slides-17-month-low-hit-rates-and-inflation-mix Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[14] “Eurozone Inflation Set to Hit 3.8% in September – The National Herald” https://www.thenationalherald.com/eurozone-inflation-set-to-hit-3-8-in-september-greeces-inflation-seen-at-5-1/ Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[15] “The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-euro-is-near-a-one-year-low-inflation-could-trigger-its-rebound-not-its-fall-202609301336 Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[16] “Consumer Price Index Release Schedule – US Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[17] “Annual inflation up to 3.2% in the euro area – Eurostat” https://static.poder360.com.br/uploads/2026/09/Annual-inflation-up-to-3.2-in-the-euro-area-Euro-indicators-Eurostat.pdf Accessed on 8 October 2026.

[18] “Meeting Calendars and Information – Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm Accessed on 8 October 2026.