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Key Takeaways

• AUD/USD traded at 0.69562 as of 10:08 (GMT+8) on 13 October 2026, about 0.55% below Monday’s high near 0.6995 on the Vantage feed.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes showed unanimous backing for a hike to 4.60%, its fourth increase of 2026. ²
• Markets priced about a 28% chance of another RBA hike on 3 November and roughly 50% for December. ¹

AUD/USD held near 0.6956 at 10:08 (GMT+8) on 13 October 2026, after slipping from Monday’s 0.6995 high as the US dollar firmed. Tuesday’s hawkish RBA minutes offered little lift. Markets priced about a 28% chance of a November RBA hike ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI.

The RBA has raised rates four times this year, and Tuesday’s minutes left the door open to a fifth. ² AUD/USD traded at 0.69562 as of 10:08 (GMT+8) on 13 October 2026 anyway, a touch weaker on the day. ² The slide from 0.6995 came overnight as the greenback gained broadly, and the minutes did little to reverse it. ¹ We’ll be honest: a tightening central bank and a softer currency is not how the textbook draws it.

That gap is what this piece unpacks: why the US dollar side of AUD/USD carried more weight, what the AUDUSD chart shows, and what the minutes changed about the risk picture before Wednesday’s US inflation print. Our AUDUSD news page keeps the running thread.

Snapshot: As of 10:08 (GMT+8) on 13 October 2026, the Vantage AUDUSD feed showed the pair 0.01% higher on the hour at 0.69562. Reuters marked 0.6904 as nearby support, with June’s trough at 0.68665 below it. ¹ Leveraged products carry a high risk of losing money rapidly.

US Dollar Strength Outweighed the RBA

Start with the other side of the pair. The US Dollar Index (USDX) closed 0.3% higher on Monday and held at 102.56 in Asian trade on Tuesday, near its strongest level since April 2025. ²

Pepperstone’s Chris Weston summed up the backdrop for Reuters, describing higher relative rates, firmer US growth, and defensive demand as “a powerful set of tailwinds for the greenback”. ² In an AUD vs USD contest, that is a lot of wind at one team’s back.

Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing added to it. FXStreet reported that markets had trimmed the odds of a Fed hike in late October, while a 25-basis-point move in December remained on the table. ³ Chair Kevin Warsh’s Friday speech in Bangkok is the next stop for Federal Reserve news. ³ Weekend attacks on Saudi energy and airport infrastructure kept the Middle East conflict in the headlines, which coincided with safe-haven demand for the dollar. ^2,3

The RBA side has not helped either. On 29 September, the day of the hike, the Aussie was about 0.4% lower against the dollar by the European session after Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference did not reinforce expectations of more tightening. ¹³ Later that week, stronger US data and higher Treasury yields lifted the greenback further. ⁴ The pair traded near 0.7114 on 22 September; ⁵ at 0.69562, it sat about 2.22% lower three weeks later. Find out how does China growth data affect AUD in this article.

That explains the three-week AUDUSD trend. The hourly chart shows how the latest leg played out.

What the AUDUSD Chart Shows

For AUD/USD technical analysis, the hourly chart is tidy. The pair climbed from a low near 0.6933 on 8 October to a high near 0.6995 on Monday 12 October, then handed most of it back. As of 10:08 (GMT+8) on 13 October, it traded at 0.69562, after a session low near 0.6950.

The two moving averages disagreed. Price sat below the 200-period average at 0.69598 and the 50-period average at 0.69727, both as of 10:08 (GMT+8). Yet the 50-period line still sat above the 200-period line after crossing it around 9 October. Averages lag by design, which is why they were still describing last week.

Momentum softened too. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis read 36.07 as of 10:08 (GMT+8), above its own moving average at 33.41. It dipped to about 29 earlier in the session, then turned up. A reading near 30 describes how stretched the recent decline was; it says nothing about what comes next.

The minutes explain why a 0.55% slip matters more than it looks.

The Minutes Put the Aussie on the Agenda

The minutes showed a board united behind the hike to 4.60% and worried that inflation would stay too high for too long. ¹ Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Boak still expects a hold, but read the minutes as “lowering the bar for an additional rate hike in November”, conditional on third-quarter inflation. ¹

Here is the detail we think most coverage passed over: the exchange rate itself. The board flagged that not tightening could mean a weaker Aussie and, through that, looser financial conditions. ¹ A softer Aussie, or AUD dollar as it is often searched, raises the local price of imported goods and business inputs, which works against the RBA’s inflation goal. ⁶ In plain terms, a weaker AUD to USD rate is now explicitly part of the case for another hike.

The RBA’s minutes put the AUD/USD exchange rate on the list of reasons to tighten, not just the list of results.

Rate pricing is one lens on the Aussie. The big banks offer another, and they do not agree.

AUD/USD Forecast: The Big Four Banks Split

For anyone searching for an AUD/USD forecast or an AUD to USD prediction this week, the question underneath is what the RBA does on 3 November. Australia’s four major banks were split down the middle as of 6 October, which shows how live the interest rate news flow has become. ¹¹

How the Big Four Banks See the 3 November RBA Decision

Bank	November Call	Cash Rate if Realised	Stated View
ANZ	Hike (25bp)	4.85%	November hike “more likely than not”
Westpac	Hike (25bp)	4.85%	Base case unless the Middle East conflict ends or energy costs fall
CBA	Hold	4.60%	Decision “finely balanced”
NAB	Hold	4.60%	Board may be done tightening for now

Table 1: Data from Aussie Home Loans reporting of major bank forecasts, published 6 October 2026, before the 13 October minutes. ¹¹ Forecasts can change before 3 November 2026.

Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said the board’s language and unanimous vote lowered the bar for a follow-up move, making November the base case unless the Middle East conflict is resolved or energy costs fall significantly. ¹¹ CBA economists called the decision “finely balanced”, while NAB chief economist Sally Auld read the Governor’s focus on jobs as a sign the board may be done for now. ¹¹ All four views predate Tuesday’s minutes.

None of these is an AUD/USD price forecast. They are rate calls, so any currency forecast AUD to USD readers come across this week inherits the same uncertainty, and so does any AUD to USD forecast built on them. The regional crosses add one more clue.

Yuan Firm, Kiwi Weak, Aussie in Between

The offshore yuan traded near its strongest level in four years, around 6.6950 per US dollar, on Tuesday. ² The Aussie, often read as a proxy for China-linked demand, did not follow.

The New Zealand dollar slipped about 0.5% overnight to $0.5585, roughly matching the Aussie’s move, but only the kiwi did it at a 17-month low; ¹ the NZDUSD news page tracks that story. RBA reference rates put one Australian dollar at 0.6979 USD and 4.6707 yuan on 12 October. ⁷

Those comparisons frame the move. The levels below frame the chart.

AUD/USD Levels Traders Are Watching

AUD/USD Levels as of 10:08 (GMT+8), 13 October 2026

Level	Price	Where It Comes From
Resistance 2	0.6995	12 October high, H1 chart; also cited by Reuters 1
Resistance 1	0.69727	50-period moving average, H1
Pivot	0.69598	200-period moving average, H1
Support 1	0.6950	13 October session low, H1
Support 2	0.6933	8 October low, H1
Support 3	0.6904	Level cited by Reuters 1

Table 2: Levels read from the Vantage AUDUSD H1 chart on TradingView, plus Reuters reporting via Business Recorder. ¹ Data as of 13 October 2026, 10:08 (GMT+8).

The read that the dollar side is carrying the pair weakens if US inflation data comes in softer than expected and December Fed hike pricing fades. It also weakens if Thursday’s Australian jobs data firms November RBA hike odds. The read holds while the US Dollar Index stays near its 18-month high.

Week-Ahead Checklist (Times in GMT+8)

• US CPI (September), Wednesday 14 October 2026: Released at 20:30, the first test of December Fed hike pricing; ⁸ see CPI news for the print.
• Australian Labour Force (September), Thursday 15 October 2026: Released at 08:30, with consensus near 20,000 jobs and unemployment at 4.6%. ^10,12
• US PPI (September), Thursday 15 October 2026: Released at 20:30, a second read on US price pressure. ⁹
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, Friday 16 October 2026: Speaks at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok. ³
• Australian September-Quarter CPI, Wednesday 28 October 2026: The data the November RBA call hinges on. ¹¹
• RBA Decision, Tuesday 3 November 2026: Priced at about 28% odds of a hike as of 13 October. ¹

AUD to USD: Frequently Asked Questions

What is the AUD to USD rate today?

As of 10:08 (GMT+8) on 13 October 2026, the Vantage AUDUSD feed showed 0.69562. For an AUD to USD conversion, one AUD in USD was worth about 0.6956; flip it to USD AUD and one US dollar bought about 1.4376 AUD. Bank and card conversions add a spread, which is why the receipt usually looks less generous.

Where can I see the AUD to USD chart?

Figure 1 above is the AUDUSD TradingView chart (H1, Vantage feed) used for this analysis. AUD / USD is quoted as the number of US dollars one Australian dollar buys.

Is there an AUD in USD forecast in this analysis?

No. This is not an AUDUSD forecast or AUD USD forecast. It records what markets are pricing (about 28% odds of a 3 November RBA hike and about 50% for December) and where the pair has traded. ¹

Risk Picture Into US CPI

So why did a fourth RBA hike and hawkish minutes leave AUD/USD lower? On the evidence so far, the dollar side of the pair carried more weight, helped by a softer Governor’s tone after the hike, while the minutes made the exchange rate part of the RBA’s own case. Wednesday’s CPI tests the first half of that read; the 28 October inflation figures test the second. ¹¹

Data weeks like this one tend to bring wider intraday ranges and a higher chance of price gaps around releases. A Stop Loss order is designed to limit losses to a planned size, but in a gap it may be filled at a worse price than the level set. Any exposure held through a release carries that gap risk.

Leverage magnifies both potential returns and losses relative to the margin posted, so a small move in AUD/USD can have an outsized effect on an account balance. A ratio such as 1:30 works in both directions. Position size measured against account equity, rather than the leverage available, determines how much of an account a given move can affect.

Related Reading

• AUDUSD News
• Interest Rate News
• CPI News

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

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References

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2. “Dollar holds near 18-month high as geopolitical risks rise – Business Recorder (Reuters)” https://www.brecorder.com/news/40443950/dollar-holds-near-18-month-high-as-geopolitical-risks-rise Accessed on 13 October 2026.
3. “Australian Dollar retreats as Fed hawkish stance, Iran tensions boost US Dollar – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-retreats-as-fed-hawkish-stance-iran-tensions-boost-us-dollar-202610121409 Accessed on 13 October 2026.
4. “Australian Dollar weakens as robust US data, rising US yields overshadow RBA rate hike – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-weakens-as-robust-us-data-rising-us-yields-overshadow-rba-rate-hike-202610011609 Accessed on 13 October 2026.
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6. “Aussie Dollar Treads Water As RBA Turns More Hawkish – Finimize” https://finimize.com/content/aussie-dollar-treads-water-as-rba-turns-more-hawkish Accessed on 13 October 2026.
7. “Exchange Rates – Reserve Bank of Australia” https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/exchange-rates.html Accessed on 13 October 2026.
8. “Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index – US Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm Accessed on 13 October 2026.
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10. “Release Calendar, October 2026 – Australian Bureau of Statistics” https://www.abs.gov.au/release-calendar/future-releases/202610 Accessed on 13 October 2026.
11. “What experts predict for the RBA’s November 2026 interest rate decision – Aussie Home Loans” https://www.aussie.com.au/insights/news/expert-predictions-rba-rates/ Accessed on 13 October 2026.
12. “Preview: RBA minutes and jobs data headline Australia’s week ahead – investingLive” https://investinglive.com/news/preview-rba-minutes-and-jobs-data-headline-australia-s-week-ahead-with-unemployment-seen-at-4-6/ Accessed on 13 October 2026.
13. “Australian Dollar sticks to cautious RBA-led losses, near two-week low vs Yen – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-sticks-to-cautious-rba-led-losses-struggles-near-two-week-low-vs-yen-202609290855 Accessed on 13 October 2026.