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It’s a quieter calendar week, which is not surprising after the recent major central bank bonanza. The dollar enjoyed its best 5-day stretch in four months after the Fed and Chair Warsh reaffirmed their inflation-fighting credentials. A broader hawkish repositioning within the FOMC now means at least one more rate hike this year. The protracted conflict in the Middle East is keeping energy-impacted inflation higher for longer and that very likely means reducing more ‘doses of accommodation.’

As we said in our Daily commentary immediately after the meeting, the overall tone still suggests possible more aggressive front-loading of rate hikes if inflation trends do not break by the fourth quarter. That means we are focused heavily on crude prices and the 10-year Treasury yield as it sits on the hugely psychological 5% level. Certainly, above this marker, questions are raised about the negative impact on stocks plus increasing concerns about the US fiscal situation.  

For a FOMC that may be communicating less about the policy outlook, we note policymakers still have a busy speaking schedule this week. Confirmed events include eight appearances by Fed officials. Otherwise, the Trump/Xi three-day summit will grab the headlines with some suggestions that the POTUS may be tempted to soften his support for Taiwan in return for an economic win ahead of the November midterm elections. The AI arms race should be a hot topic with only the second state dinner of Trump’s current term at the White House predicted to be loaded with Big Tech bosses including Nvidia CEO Huang.

On the economic data side, attention will turn to September PMI surveys for clues on third-quarter growth across major economies. Australia will kick off the reporting cycle followed by the euro area, the UK, the US, and Japan on Wednesday. To date, PMIs have signaler continued resilience in manufacturing, with activity remaining in expansion territory (above 50), supported by front-loaded demand and ongoing AI-related. At the same time, services activity has rebounded sharply in July and August after slipping into contraction territory in the second quarter, providing further support to third quarter growth.

Australia’s August jobs report, due Thursday, will be the last major release before the RBA’s policy meeting the following week. Traders currently price a 90% chance of a 25bp rate hike, and a single labour market report is unlikely to materially alter that view given persistent inflation risks and limited signs of labour market easing.

In Brief: Major Data Releases Of The Week

Wednesday, 23 September 2026

Global PMIs: Both the eurozone manufacturing and services figures for September are forecast to tick lower to 52.3 and 51.1 from 52.7 and 51.6. Expansion in the UK and US Services PMI is expected to continue its positive momentum. But output and orders growth in US manufacturing are predicted to ease. A reading above 50 denotes growth.  

Thursday, 24 September 2026

Australia Jobs: Expectations are for a headline print of 20k, after the negative surprise in July of -15.8k, following two strong reports. Unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.5% due to softer employment and labour force growth. AUD/USD fell for a second straight week after printing a near four-month high earlier in September. Initial support sits around the 50 and 100-day SMAs at 0.7076/82.

President Trump / Xi Washington Summit: An extension to the US and China trade truce is likely. Reports include lower tariffs on American energy and agricultural products, plus reduced duties on Chinese inputs used by US manufacturers. AI guardrails and tech rivalry is a current focus while supply chain issues and critical mineral controls linger. Otherwise, there could be a more cautious atmosphere, as tensions continue over China’s ties with Iran and Russia.