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Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement: 2.25% vs 3.1% CPI
Vantage Editorial Team >
Vantage Editorial Team >
Vantage is a global, multi-asset broker with a team of in-house writers and market analysts who produce educational and insightful trading content for traders of all levels.
Updated Thu, 2026 October 22 06:34
Canada’s September inflation came in at two different sizes: 3.1% and 1.8%.[1,2] Same month, same economy. The first is headline CPI. The second is CPI-trim, one of the Bank of Canada’s core measures. Over that month, employment fell by 68,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 6.5%.[3]
So the Bank of Canada interest rate announcement on 28 October has a puzzle to solve, and it is a rare one: both sides of the argument are in the published numbers. This guide asks one question the evidence can answer. What is the Bank weighing, and which figures sit on its desk? It sets out the rate, the calendar, the data and the Governor’s own words, then leaves the decision to the Governing Council.
The Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate is 2.25%, unchanged since 29 October 2025. Its next rate announcement is 28 October at 09:45 ET (21:45 GMT+8), released alongside the Monetary Policy Report. September annual CPI inflation was 3.1%, while CPI-trim and CPI-median were below 2%.
What is the Bank of Canada interest rate today?
The Bank of Canada policy rate is 2.25%, unchanged since 29 October 2025.[4] Canada interest rates have not moved for almost a year, which is its own kind of news. At the 2 September 2026 release the Bank Rate stood at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.[5] The Bank of Canada key interest rate changes the day after an announcement.[4] The Bank Rate, what it charges on loans to financial institutions, sits 0.25 points above the policy rate; the deposit rate, what it pays on deposits, sits 0.05 points below. Those two rates bound the overnight rate.[5]
The Bank of Canada overnight rate is the price of one-day money between large financial institutions, and it is the BoC interest rate the Bank steers. Other short-term borrowing costs tend to follow; in plain terms, it is the Bank’s main lever. Vantage’s guide to interest rates and the economy covers the mechanics, and the latest decisions sit under interest rate news.
Table 1 shows the route: three holds at 2.75% through July 2025, two cuts of 0.25 points, then seven holds in a row, a long pause by any measure, the latest on 2 September.[4]
| Date | Decision | BoC rate (%) | Change (points) |
| 16 April 2025 | Hold | 2.75 | 0.00 |
| 4 June 2025 | Hold | 2.75 | 0.00 |
| 30 July 2025 | Hold | 2.75 | 0.00 |
| 17 September 2025 | Cut | 2.50 | -0.25 |
| 29 October 2025 | Cut | 2.25 | -0.25 |
| 10 December 2025 | Hold | 2.25 | 0.00 |
| 28 January 2026 | Hold | 2.25 | 0.00 |
| 18 March 2026 | Hold | 2.25 | 0.00 |
| 29 April 2026 | Hold | 2.25 | 0.00 |
| 10 June 2026 | Hold | 2.25 | 0.00 |
| 15 July 2026 | Hold | 2.25 | 0.00 |
| 2 September 2026 | Hold | 2.25 | 0.00 |
The record is public. So is the calendar.
When is the next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 09:45 ET, which is 21:45 in GMT+8, with the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) published at the same time.[6] Every BoC rate announcement this year has used the 09:45 ET slot.[6] For readers in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Hong Kong that is a late-evening release, and Table 2 gives every 2026 date in GMT+8.
The Governor and Senior Deputy Governor held a press conference at 10:30 ET on 29 April and in October 2025.[7,8] No media advisory existed for 28 October at the time of writing; the Bank usually publishes one about three business days ahead.[9] So 22:30 (GMT+8) is the established pattern, not a confirmed time.
The remaining Bank of Canada rate announcement dates for 2026 stop at 9 December, with no MPR. North American clocks go back on 1 November, so that one lands at 22:45 (GMT+8), an hour later than October’s.[6]
The Bank of Canada rate schedule for 2027 is already public, from 27 January to 8 December.[4] Those Bank of Canada interest rate dates are fixed, which makes decision days easier to plan for. The decisions are not.
| Bank of Canada interest rate next date | MPR | Release (ET) | GMT+8 | Status |
| 28 January 2026 | Yes | 09:45 | 22:45 | Held at 2.25% |
| 18 March 2026 | No | 09:45 | 21:45 | Held at 2.25% |
| 29 April 2026 | Yes | 09:45 | 21:45 | Held at 2.25% |
| 10 June 2026 | No | 09:45 | 21:45 | Held at 2.25% |
| 15 July 2026 | Yes | 09:45 | 21:45 | Held at 2.25% |
| 2 September 2026 | No | 09:45 | 21:45 | Held at 2.25% |
| 28 October 2026 | Yes | 09:45 | 21:45 | Next announcement |
| 9 December 2026 | No | 09:45 | 22:45 | Final of 2026 |
Table 1: Bank of Canada interest rate history, or interest rates Canada has seen from April 2025 to September 2026. Source: Bank of Canada key interest rate page, accessed on 22 October 2026.
First, though, what the Bank last said.
What the Bank said at its last rate announcement
Start with how the rate reached 2.25%. The Bank held at 2.75% on 16 April, 4 June and 30 July 2025, then cut by 0.25 points on 17 September to 2.50% and again on 29 October to 2.25%.[4] Seven holds have followed, the latest on 2 September 2026.[4] That explains how the rate was set. It is not a pattern to read forward, only the baseline figure for 28 October.
The last Bank of Canada rate announcement, on 2 September, left the rate at 2.25%.[5] The release gave three reasons: the Middle East conflict keeping energy prices high, new US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures after trade talks broke down, and tighter financial conditions since July as long-term bond yields rose.[5] It added that upside risks to inflation have increased, while tariffs cloud growth.[5]
It also cited second-quarter GDP growth of 3.3% after very weak first-quarter growth (it does not say whether that is annualised) and, for July, unemployment of 6.4%, ex-gasoline inflation of 2.2% and core measures close to 2%.[5] Vantage’s analysis of the September hold covers the market side.
One line of the September CPI table explains how a headline near 3% and an ex-gasoline 2.2% sit in the same release.
Why headline and core inflation point in different directions
Four layers sit under this decision: energy, tariffs and trade talks, tighter financial conditions, and the labour market. Energy comes first, because it is where the two inflation readings part ways.
Zoom in on one line of Statistics Canada’s September table: gasoline, up 27.8% from a year earlier, after 22.8% in August.[1] Energy overall rose 19.0%.[1] Vantage’s oil market coverage follows the crude side. Headline CPI edged up to 3.1% from 3.0%.[1]
Zoom out and the picture changes. Excluding gasoline, CPI was 2.2%, down from 2.4% in August: the headline rose while the version without one line fell.[1] CPI-trim read 1.8% and CPI-median 1.9%; CPI-common, at 2.4%, is the one core measure still above 2%.[2] One line of the table is doing a lot of talking.
Headline CPI counts the fuel bill; core measures look past it. CPI news readers can check the weights there.
Now rule out the obvious. The instinct that 3.1% means a Bank of Canada rate hike is the first one most people reach for. Trim at 1.8%, median at 1.9% and the 2.2% ex-gasoline figure complicate it, while CPI-common at 2.4% and the Bank’s own 2 September warning that upside inflation risks have increased point the other way.[5,2] A hike is one reading, a BoC rate cut another, Bank of Canada rates holding a third. No verdict here.
The labour market adds a second pressure, and it does not appear in the inflation table.
Why the jobs numbers matter as much as inflation
Employment fell by 68,000 in September, down 0.3%.[3] August had already lost 42,000 jobs, so that is 110,000 jobs across two months.[3] Average hourly wages rose 2.3% on the year, below the 3.1% headline and just above the 2.2% ex-gasoline reading; the comparison is Vantage arithmetic across two releases, not a Statistics Canada figure.[3]
The second obvious reading is that falling jobs mean a Bank of Canada rate cut. Cost pressure complicates it: energy was up 19.0% on the year.[1] The Bank’s Business Outlook Survey found roughly half of firms planning to pass on some or all of their cost increases linked to the Middle East conflict and tariffs, though about three-quarters of interviews predate the 21 August breakdown in trade talks and the tariff announcements that followed.[10] Financial conditions have tightened too, as Vantage’s note on the OECD and central bank rates covers.[5]
Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates?
The Governing Council has not announced a decision, but its Governor has set the stage. In Bangkok, in remarks reported on 17 October, Tiff Macklem said the Bank expects to raise its inflation forecast significantly, and that “the risk that inflation broadens and becomes more persistent has gone up”.[11]
Analysts now sit on both sides. TD Economics’ Leslie Preston wrote on 19 October that the data support a Bank that “can remain on hold this year”.[12] RBC Economics’ Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan saw a hold “through 2026 before gradually hiking rates in 2027” on 13 October, while flagging risk of earlier moves.[13] Scotiabank’s Derek Holt and Desjardins’ Randall Bartlett now forecast a 25 basis point hike at the next decision, and CIBC’s Andrew Grantham said a first hike “could come earlier than the January move we previously forecast”.[14,15] Brown Brothers Harriman noted on 20 October that swaps priced a 78% chance of a hike.[16] Every Bank of Canada rate hike forecast and Bank of Canada rate cut forecast awaits the Bank’s own numbers.
What the Monetary Policy Report adds on 28 October
That is what the Monetary Policy Report is for. The Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report is quarterly, published with the announcement in January, April, July and October, and it sets out the projections behind the rate.[6] For a Bank of Canada interest rate decision, it adds the growth and inflation paths and the assumptions beneath them. The MPR is where the Bank shows its working, and the press conference tests it. October’s edition arrives with the Bank of Canada rate decision at 21:45 (GMT+8) on 28 October.
Bank of Canada projections already exist to compare against. The July 2026 report had GDP growth of 0.7% in 2026, rising to 1.8% in 2027 and 2028, and CPI inflation easing to about 2.5% over the second half of 2026, highly conditional on oil prices.[17] Macklem has already said the October inflation forecast is due to move up; how far is the number to read.[11]
The press conference adds the human voice. Governor Tiff Macklem, who has led the Bank since 3 June 2020, and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers take questions on the day, and the Bank webcasts it.[18,8] Worth listening for: which inflation measure the Governor leans on, and how he talks about tariffs.
Frequently asked questions
When is the next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
28 October 2026 at 09:45 ET (21:45 GMT+8), with the Monetary Policy Report.[6]
What is the current Bank of Canada interest rate?
The policy rate is 2.25%, unchanged since 29 October 2025.[4]
When was the last Bank of Canada interest rate cut?
29 October 2025, by 0.25 points to 2.25%, after a cut of the same size on 17 September 2025.[4]
Will Bank of Canada raise interest rates?
The Bank has not announced a decision. Macklem said in remarks reported on 17 October that the risk of broader inflation has gone up, and analysts are split between a hold and a hike.[11,12,14]
BoC Tiff Macklem interest rates: what time is the press conference in GMT+8?
The announcement is at 21:45. Earlier MPR days had a 10:30 ET press conference, which is 22:30; the Bank had not confirmed it for 28 October.[7]
What to watch
- Bank of Canada announcement, 28 October 2026 (21:45): The rate decision and the Monetary Policy Report are published together.[6]
- Press conference, 28 October 2026 (22:30): Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers have held one at 10:30 ET on earlier MPR days; timing is to be confirmed.[7]
- Federal Reserve decision, 29 October 2026 (02:00): The FOMC meets on 27 and 28 October; the Fed lists 14:00 ET on the 28th.[19]
- Canadian October jobs, 6 November 2026: Statistics Canada publishes the Labour Force Survey for October.[3]
- Canadian October CPI, 16 November 2026: The next CPI release shows whether the headline and core gap persists.[1]
- Bank of Canada announcement, 9 December 2026 (22:45): The final announcement of 2026, without an MPR.[6]
Risk on decision days
Around 21:45 (GMT+8), prices in forex markets exposed to the Canadian dollar can gap, spreads can widen, and quotes can move before an order fills. Leverage is double-edged: it can magnify losses as well as gains.
The Bank is weighing a 3.1% headline carried by gasoline up 27.8%, core measures that read lower, and 110,000 jobs lost in two months. Widen the lens and Canada is one of five central banks in three days: the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on 28 October, the European Central Bank on 29 October, and the Bank of Japan on 30 October.[19,20,21,22] Vantage’s Fed, ECB and BoJ week note and Federal Reserve news follow the others.
A Stop Loss can help limit a loss to a planned size, but it is not a guarantee. If the market gaps through the chosen level, the order may fill at a worse price.
Leverage magnifies gains and losses relative to account capital, so position size relative to account equity decides how much a single gap can move the balance.
RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.
Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
References
[1] “The Daily, 19 October 2026: Consumer Price Index – Statistics Canada” https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/261019/dq261019a-eng.htm Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[2] “Consumer Price Index and core measures – Bank of Canada” https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/price-indexes/cpi/ Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[3] “The Daily, 9 October 2026: Labour Force Survey – Statistics Canada” https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/261009/dq261009a-eng.htm Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[4] “Key interest rate – Bank of Canada” https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/ Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[5] “Press release, 2 September 2026 – Bank of Canada” https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/ Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[6] “Bank of Canada publishes its 2026 schedule for policy interest rate announcements and other major publications – Bank of Canada” https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/08/bank-canada-publishes-2026-schedule-policy-interest-rate-announcements-other-major-publications/ Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[7] “Bank of Canada interest rate announcement and release of the Monetary Policy Report, 29 April 2026 – Bank of Canada” https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/04/fad-announcement-release-mpr-2026-04-29/ Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[8] “Bank of Canada interest rate announcement and release of the Monetary Policy Report, 29 October 2025 – Bank of Canada” https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/10/fad-announcement-release-mpr-2025-10-29/ Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[9] “Upcoming events – Bank of Canada” https://www.bankofcanada.ca/press/upcoming-events/ Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[10] “Business Outlook Survey, Third Quarter of 2026 – Bank of Canada” https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/business-outlook-survey-third-quarter-of-2026/ Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[11] “Bank of Canada sees sharply higher inflation outlook as oil surges, Macklem says – Reuters” https://ca.investing.com/news/economy-news/bank-of-canada-sees-sharply-higher-inflation-outlook-as-oil-surges-macklem-says-4886466 Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[12] “Canadian Consumer Price Index, September 2026 – TD Economics” https://economics.td.com/ca-cpi Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[13] “Financial Markets Monthly: Rising bond yields, softer labour data buy central banks time – RBC Economics” https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/financial-markets-monthly/monthly-forecast-update-rising-bond-yields-softer-labour-data-buy-central-banks-time/ Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[14] “Bank of Canada expected to raise rates next week, some economists say – Global News” https://globalnews.ca/news/12110926/bank-of-canada-rate-hikes/ Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[15] “Bank of Canada’s next move: what top economists are saying – Canadian Mortgage Professional” https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/bank-of-canadas-next-move-what-top-economists-are-saying/594101 Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[16] “Canadian Dollar: Market pricing seen excessive despite hike bets – FXStreet (Brown Brothers Harriman note, 20 October 2026)” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-market-pricing-seen-excessive-despite-hike-bets-bbh-202610201438 Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[17] “Monetary Policy Report, July 2026: Canadian outlook – Bank of Canada” https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/mpr/mpr-2026-07-15/canadian-outlook/ Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[18] “Tiff Macklem – Bank of Canada” https://www.bankofcanada.ca/?p=149989 Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[19] “October 2026 calendar – Federal Reserve Board” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[20] “Monetary Policy Review and OCR October 2026 – Reserve Bank of New Zealand” https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events/2026/october/monetary-policy-review-and-ocr-october-2026 Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[21] “Schedules for the meetings of the Governing Council and General Council of the ECB and related press conferences – European Central Bank” https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html Accessed on 22 October 2026.
[22] “Scheduled Dates of Monetary Policy Meetings in 2026 – Bank of Japan” https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/m_ref/mref250731a.pdf Accessed on 22 October 2026.
The information has been prepared as of the date published and is subject to change thereafter. The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
