Will we get a breather or will markets remain volatile after the shock Democrat ‘Bluenami’ following last week’s midterm US election? Broadly, the deadlock in American politics means that US fiscal policy will be more predictable over the coming years. That’s because Republicans have no chance of passing further deficit-widening measures. This caused interest rates to decline, especially in the short end, with barely more than one more Fed rate hike now priced in over the coming quarters. Interestingly, the greenback rose on Friday partially due to the stellar monthly jobs report. But the bid was seen before the data which tells us the buck’s liquidity and 4% deposit rates are an important factor in the current highly volatile environment.

Of course, the major market driver is likely to remain stocks and the rout in AI/Tech specifically. We think it’s important to remember that US economic data is generally solid while the planning and approval process for data centre construction takes a long time. That means the election results should not impact the short-term growth outlook. Last Thursday’s meltdown slows the current pace of the buildout but doesn’t cancel it outright. In addition, slower capex growth improves hyperscaler free cash flow, while weakening semiconductor free cash flow. That is in simple terms, a redistribution within the AI ecosystem. Certainly then, forced selling and deleveraging amplified recent price action seen last week. But that takes us back to the stat from last week; one investment bank calculated that 21 of the last 23 midterm years have brought positive returns in Q4, with an average 7% in the S&P 500.

Technically, it’s worth pointing out some key levels on the tech-heavy Nasdaq. In such turbulent times, we know from vast experience that even hugely fundamental experts on Wall Street, who very rarely look at charts, can revert to them to see what the technicals are saying. Well, the Nasdaq looks to have found some support around the July bottom 27,176. The midpoint of this year’s low to high move sits near at 27,101. This zone serves as the neckline of a huge double top formation which is under test. The neckline also coincides with an upward trend line connecting the 2025 and 2026 lows. If this breaks, the measured move resides just below 23,000. That is coincidentally close to the year-to-date low from late March at of 22,841.

In Brief: Major Data Releases of The Week

Tuesday, 10 November 2026

US CPI: October headline inflation is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m from 0.6%. There will be no annual figure as that coincides with last year’s government shutdown and no data releases. Core, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is seen steady at 0.3%. Energy prices receded while shelter costs are easing. December rate hike bets were cemented by the strong NFP report.

Thursday, 12 November 2026

UK Q3 GDP: Consensus predicts third quarter GDP to print at 0.7%, up from the prior 0.5%. Surging professional services output and AI data centre investment are keeping the economy buoyant. In fact, it’s the top performing G7 economy in the first half of this year. Note that the second half has typically been less strong in the UK. Cable is mixed after recent upside momentum was killed off by Friday’s blockbuster US jobs data. Resistance sits at last week’s top around 1.35, with initial support just above 1.33.