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GBP/USD, GBP vs USD, GBP v USD, however you type it, this week’s pound story comes down to one thing: two central banks held their nerve, and neither blinked first. The Vantage GBPUSD CFD traded near 1.34607 as of the 05:53 candle on the 15-minute chart used for this analysis on 5 August 2026 (chart server time), up 0.02% on the session.

This GBPUSD forecast reads the chart, the moving averages, and the RSI on the TradingView setup used for this analysis, then sets out the levels and dates before Friday’s US jobs report. This is not financial advice.

Key Points

• GBP/USD trades near 1.3461 as of 05:53 on 5 August 2026, above both its 50-period moving average (1.34440) and 200-period moving average (1.34528) after last week’s wide swing.
• The move follows back-to-back holds: the Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50%–3.75% on 29 July with three dissenters, and the Bank of England held at 3.75% on 30 July 2026, also with three dissenters.^1,2
• RSI(14) sits near 56 on the TradingView setup used for this analysis, squarely neutral, with the US jobs report due 7 August the next scheduled catalyst for GBP to USD direction.⁷

What the GBPUSD Chart Is Actually Showing

Zoom out on the 15-minute chart and it’s a round trip. GBPUSD based out near 1.3280 on 28 July, then rallied hard into the central bank decisions, printing a swing high close to 1.3520 around 31 July 2026 into 1 August 2026. A dotted resistance line near 1.3480 marked the level the rally kept failing to clear. From there the pair pulled back to the 1.3420–1.3430 area, well above the late-July base, before climbing through 4 and 5 August 2026 to the current 1.34607 print. Call it indecision, or two central banks saying the same thing in different accents: not yet.

The moving-average header reads 1.34440 for the 50-period line and 1.34528 for the 200-period line, so the shorter-term average still sits just under the longer-term one even with spot trading above both. RSI (14) reads 55.83, signal line at 56.27, comfortably neutral with no overbought or oversold signal either way. Volume on the Vantage CFD feed measured 1.61K on the last bar. For a primer on these overlays, see Vantage’s technical analysis coverage.

The Fed and BoE Both Held, but the Dissents Are the Story

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% on 29 July 2026, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s second meeting since taking office.³ Three regional presidents dissented in favour of a 25-basis-point hike, the first time three FOMC members have leaned the same hawkish way since September 2016.⁴ Warsh called it “a good family fight” and said the Fed has “no tolerance” for elevated inflation, while stripping forward guidance from the statement.⁵ Quiet, it was not. See Vantage’s Federal Reserve news for the running list.

A day later, the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, three MPC members again pushing for a hike as inflation risks stayed skewed to the upside.¹ Governor Andrew Bailey pushed back on any imminent tightening, pointing to UK inflation easing to 2.6% in June 2026, a 15-month low.¹ Markets are pricing both banks on hold into their next meetings, with the BoE due to vote on balance-sheet reduction on 17 September 2026.⁶ See Vantage’s interest rate news and USD news coverage for the dollar side of this story.

Levels Traders Are Watching

The table below sets out the reference levels visible on the chart. These are levels traders are watching, not trade signals.

Table 1: Key levels as of 05:53, 5 August 2026, per the TradingView setup used for this analysis. Indicative only.

The same zones work in reverse for anyone charting USD to GBP or USD GBP instead of GBP to USD: the resistance above becomes support on the way down, and the support above becomes resistance.

What to Watch This Week

• US Jobs Report, 7 August 2026: The July Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics lands at 08:30 (ET), the next scheduled catalyst for the dollar side of the pair.⁷
• BoE Balance-Sheet Vote, 17 September 2026: Policymakers are due to vote on the pace of quantitative tightening at the next scheduled meeting.⁶
• Gulf Shipping Headlines: Middle East conflict mediation efforts remain a background driver for broader dollar risk appetite.⁸

For the next GBP to USD forecast, or a broader GBP USD forecast, follow Vantage’s GBPUSD news tag and the GBP/USD Trading Guide for how the pair is traded as a CFD. The previous GBPUSD update has more on last week’s session.

On risk management: price has moved fast around central bank headlines, and GBPUSD has round-tripped several hundred pips in a handful of sessions. Stop Loss placement around the levels above matters more than usual in a range this headline-driven, and traders holding correlated dollar exposure elsewhere may want to check their combined exposure before Friday’s release.

Leverage works both ways in a range this wide, magnifying gains and losses alike. Position sizing relative to account equity is worth revisiting ahead of the US jobs report, particularly for anyone carrying exposure into the release.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “Bank of England holds UK interest rate steady at 3.75%, but policymakers see upside inflation risk – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/interest-rates-inflation-bank-of-england.html Accessed on 5 August 2026.

[2] “Fed rate decision July 2026: Divided Fed holds interest rates steady – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html Accessed on 5 August 2026.

[3] “Who has to leave the Federal Reserve next? – Brookings” https://www.brookings.edu/articles/who-has-to-leave-the-federal-reserve-next-2/ Accessed on 5 August 2026.

[4] “July FOMC: Fed holds interest rates steady – Fox Business” https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-july-29-2026 Accessed on 5 August 2026.

[5] “Fed leaves rates steady, with internal dissent – Axios” https://www.axios.com/2026/07/29/fed-warsh-rates-inflation Accessed on 5 August 2026.

[6] “British Pound: Softer BoE stance seen weighing on Sterling – BBH – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-softer-boe-stance-seen-weighing-on-sterling-bbh-202607311220 Accessed on 5 August 2026.

[7] “Employment Situation Summary – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Accessed on 5 August 2026.

[8] “August 4, 2026 – Iran continues Hormuz talks with Oman, US signals optimism on deal – CNN” https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/04/world/live-news/iran-war-trump Accessed on 5 August 2026.