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EUR/USD is trading near 1.1522 as of 06:57 (Vantage platform server time) on 13 August 2026, after a session where cooler inflation should have been the euro’s friend, and briefly was. This is not an EUR/USD price forecast or a trading signal. It is a read of the chart and the news flow at the cut-off time above, nothing more.

What the EUR/USD Chart is Showing

The 15-minute EUR/USD chart on the Vantage feed spent most of 12 August boxed into a lazy 1.1535 to 1.1545 band. Then July’s US Consumer Price Index landed, and the euro to USD rate did something worth watching: it spiked to a session high of 1.15650.

The move didn’t hold. EUR/USD reversed hard through 1.1540 and then 1.1530, grinding down to a session low of 1.15210 in the early hours of 13 August, roughly where it sits now. The Relative Strength Index on this EUR/USD technical analysis setup spiked above 70 on the CPI move and has since dropped to 33.95, with the signal line at 49.08, a sharp momentum swing that hasn’t yet tipped into oversold territory below 30.

Price is also now trading below both the 50-period moving average (1.15369) and the 200-period moving average (1.15273), having spent the prior 24 hours comfortably above them. That is the single clearest shift on the EUR/USD chart since the CPI print.

EUR/USD News Today: Cooler CPI, A Dovish Fed Repricing That didn’t Stick

July’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% on the month and 3.4% on the year, a tenth cooler than June. Core CPI matched expectations at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. 1,3 Wages tell a less comfortable story: average hourly earnings fell 0.2% year on year, the fourth straight month pay has lost ground to prices. 2

Here is the twist in this EUR/USD news story: the in-line print reduced, not raised, the odds of a Federal Reserve hike. FXStreet reported the market pricing a September hold at 60%, up from 40% shortly before the release, and CME FedWatch showed a similar shift, with hold probability near 62%, up from about 52% a day earlier. 4,6 A dovish repricing like that is usually US dollar-negative, and briefly, it was: EUR/USD spiked to 1.1565 before fading.

The fade had its own drivers. German inflation accelerated to 2.8% year on year in July, from 2.4% in June, but gave the euro only limited support, while fresh reports of attacks on shipping near the Bab-el-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz kept a safe-haven bid under the dollar. 5 July non-farm payrolls had already shown an unexpected loss of 23,000 jobs, and Warsh’s press conference last month left the Fed’s next move far from clear. 8 The Producer Price Index for July, due later today, is the next data point standing between here and the September meeting.

The Euro Side: ECB Holds, Oil Stays the Wildcard

On the other side of the pair, the European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points on 11 June, its first hike since 2023, then held steady in July. 7 Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate showed eurozone GDP grew 0.4% quarter on quarter in the second quarter, well ahead of the 0.2% consensus, with a revised estimate due on 14 August; annual inflation edged up to 2.9% in July, above the ECB’s target. 7

Energy remains the wildcard for a region that imports most of its oil. Brent crude eased to $87.92 a barrel on 13 August, down from near $89 the day before, after President Trump said the US had “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz even as talks with Tehran stay deadlocked. 9 A separate 12 August report cited Pakistan’s defence minister saying Washington and Tehran were close to an arrangement on the waterway, unconfirmed. 10 With both central banks now reading the data meeting by meeting, EUR/USD looks set to keep taking its cues from the next release, not from any grand policy narrative.

EUR/USD Levels to Watch

The table below sets out the reference zones traders are watching on the 15-minute chart. Read it as context, not as an entry list.

Table 1: Key EUR/USD levels referenced from the Vantage EURUSD CFD feed as of 06:57 (Vantage platform server time), 13 August 2026. Indicative only.

Closing: Risk and Exposure

A round trip from 1.1535 to 1.1565 and back to 1.1522 in under 18 hours says everything about how fast the range can move around a single release. A Stop Loss, placed with reference to the levels above rather than a fixed number of pips from the current price, limits losses to a planned size instead of leaving them to chance. With PPI due later today, that discipline is worth the five minutes it takes.

Leverage on EUR/USD CFDs runs up to 1:1000, and it cuts both ways: it scales exposure, not conviction, so any move in the euro to USD rate affects the account balance in direct proportion to position size. Reviewing position sizing against account equity, not just the pair’s recent range, is sensible housekeeping ahead of the PPI print and September’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. For a primer on how EUR/USD trading works, see the Vantage Academy guide.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “CPI inflation report July 2026” – CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/cpi-inflation-report-july-2026.html Accessed on 13 August 2026.

[2] “July 2026 CPI report: Inflation remained stubborn” – NBC News https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/cpi-inflation-july-2026-rcna591698 Accessed on 13 August 2026.

[3] “CPI Home” – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Accessed on 13 August 2026.

[4] “Euro reverses from two-day high, fade US soft CPI move” – FXStreet https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-reverses-from-two-day-high-fade-us-soft-cpi-move-202608122158 Accessed on 13 August 2026.

[5] “Euro steady as US CPI meets forecasts, Middle East risks weigh” – FXStreet https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-little-changed-as-us-cpi-fails-to-surprise-the-markets-202608121246 Accessed on 13 August 2026.

[6] “July Inflation Data Came in as Expected, Lowering the Odds of a Fed Hike in September Yet Again” – The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/july-inflation-data-came-expected-155501202.html Accessed on 13 August 2026.

[7] “Euro Area Currency” – Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/currency Accessed on 13 August 2026.

[8] “Dollar drifts higher as traders eye Iran talks ahead of US jobs data” – CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/08/07/dollar-drifts-higher-as-traders-eye-iran-talks-ahead-of-us-jobs-data.html Accessed on 13 August 2026.

[9] “Brent crude oil – Price – Chart – Historical Data – News” – Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil Accessed on 13 August 2026.

[10] “United States Dollar – Quote – Chart – Historical Data – News” – Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency Accessed on 13 August 2026.