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Why USD/JPY Held Near 157.45 as BOJ’s Hike Lost Its Bite – USD/JPY CFD Analysis
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Vantage Editorial Team >
Vantage is a global, multi-asset broker with a team of in-house writers and market analysts who produce educational and insightful trading content for traders of all levels.
Updated Thu, 2026 September 24 05:44
Quick answer: USD/JPY traded near 157.45 as of 09:30 (GMT+8) on 22 September 2026, holding just under the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 157.536. The pair is consolidating after the Bank of Japan’s 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% on 18 September sparked a sharp swing between 156.656 and 158.05.
Whether you are tracking USD/JPY news today, the wider USD/JPY forecast, or simply asking what USD JPY is doing right now, the short answer is: not much, and that is the story worth reading. This USD/JPY forecast reads the forex news today and the USD/JPY chart together; it does not call the next move.
What Happened
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on 18 September 2026, the highest level since April 1995, at the end of a two-day meeting.2 The seven-two vote saw board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissent in favour of holding steady, and Japanese equities extended their own rally, with the Nikkei 225 advancing 1.38% to finish at 65,019, extending a three-session winning streak.6
USD/JPY still climbed to 158.05 as the split vote and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s cautious tone were read as a dovish hike.1 Reports that the BOJ was checking rates in the market, a form of verbal intervention, then coincided with a sharp reversal, with the pair sliding below the 61.8% retracement at 157.536 before finding support near the 50% midpoint at 156.656.1
The move landed two days after the Federal Reserve raised its own benchmark by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, its first increase since July 2023 under new Chair Kevin Warsh.4,5 MUFG Research noted that “Warsh just couldn’t hold back his hawkish leaning bias” at the press conference, a tone that has kept the dollar side of the pair well supported.9
Heading into the New York close on Monday, 21 September, USD/JPY had rebounded from 156.656 and was again testing 157.536, trading near 157.455.1 The pair has held in that area into the Tuesday, 22 September session, with Japan’s markets shut for the Silver Week holiday.1,10
What the USD/JPY Chart Is Showing Today
On the Vantage one-hour USD/JPY chart, the pair rallied from around 154.00 on 14 September to a peak near 158.05 by 18 September, right around the BOJ decision.1,2 A sharp pullback into the 156.60 to 157.00 zone followed, before the pair ground higher again into 22 September.1
USD/JPY is trading above its 50-period moving average, at 155.314, and just above its 200-period average, at 157.181, having briefly tested that line from above during last week’s pullback before recovering. The RSI (14) reads 59.87 against a 59.47 signal average on the TradingView setup used for this analysis, comfortably neutral and well down from the overbought reading above 70 touched twice around the BOJ decision.
RoboForex analysts flagged that the main risk to further USD/JPY upside is “a further strengthening of the Bank of Japan’s hawkish rhetoric,” a reminder that this remains a two-way setup rather than a one-way trend.8
USD/JPY 1-Hour Chart, Vantage – Rally Into the BOJ Decision, Pullback, and Consolidation Near 157.45 (TradingView, accessed 22 September 2026, 09:30 GMT+8). Data indicative, for informational purposes only.
USD/JPY Key Levels
The table below sets out the zones traders are watching on USD/JPY. These are reference levels, not trade signals.
| Pair | Support | Resistance | What’s Happening |
| USD/JPY | 156.656 / 156.247 | 157.536 / 158.04 | Consolidating below the 61.8% retracement after the BOJ hike |
Table 1: Key USD/JPY levels as of 22 September 2026, 09:30 (GMT+8). Sources: InvestingLive, TradingView. Reference levels only, not trade signals.
USD/JPY Scenario Guide
A quick side-by-side of the configurations traders are watching, for reference only.
| Scenario | Trigger | RSI Read | What It Would Signal |
| Upside continuation | Hold above 157.536 | Above 60 | 157.90-158.04 swing zone comes back into view |
| Range-bound (current) | Between 156.656 and 157.536 | 50-65 | Consolidation persists, matching the past two sessions |
| Downside correction | Break below 156.656 | Below 50 | Rising 100-hour MA near 156.247 gets tested |
Table 2: USD/JPY reference scenarios as of 22 September 2026, 09:30 (GMT+8). Not trade signals, for informational purposes only.
What to Watch
- BOJ Next Policy Meeting, 29-30 October: fresh Outlook Report due, after a split vote that left the pace of further interest rate tightening an open question.7
- Fed’s Next Meeting, 27-28 October: after September’s hike to 3.75%-4.00%, market pricing is currently split on whether the Fed moves again this month.11
- Japan’s Silver Week Holiday, 21-23 September: local markets are shut through Wednesday’s Autumnal Equinox Day, a factor that can thin liquidity and widen intraday USD/JPY swings.1,10
- US Data Flow: incoming releases stay relevant to the rate gap between the Fed and the BOJ underpinning the currency trading backdrop for the pair.4
Risk Considerations
Volatility around central bank decisions, such as last week’s BOJ and Federal Reserve announcements, can produce rapid price swings in USD/JPY. A Stop Loss order is one tool traders use to define in advance the point at which a position is closed, helping manage exposure to sudden moves rather than reacting to them after the fact.
Leverage allows a trader to control a larger position than their account balance alone would otherwise permit, and Vantage offers leverage of up to 1:1000 on eligible accounts. Leverage magnifies both potential outcomes, so it can affect an account balance as much on the downside as on the upside, and position sizing should be considered carefully in light of that.
RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.
Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
References
[1] “USDJPY Tests the 61.8% Retracement as Buyers and Sellers Battle for Control” – investingLive https://investinglive.com/forex/usdjpy-tests-the-61-8-retracement-as-buyers-and-sellers-battle-for-control/ Accessed on 22 September 2026.
[2] “Bank of Japan Raises Rates in Split Decision Amid Inflation Risks” – The Edge Malaysia https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/818488 Accessed on 22 September 2026.
[3] “Bank of Japan Lifts Rates to 31-Year High, Two Board Members Dissent” – The Star https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2026/09/18/bank-of-japan-lifts-rates-to-31-year-high-two-board-members-dissent Accessed on 22 September 2026.
[4] “Federal Reserve Raises Rates to 3.75-4.00% for the First Time Since 2023” – OrbitRemit https://blog.orbitremit.com/federal-reserve-september-2026/ Accessed on 22 September 2026.
[5] “Federal Reserve Raises Rates, Officials Signal One More Hike in 2026” – J.P. Morgan https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/federal-reserve-raises-rates-officials-signal-one-more-hike-in-2026 Accessed on 22 September 2026.
[6] “Yen Weakens as Traders Parse Ueda Remarks” – Trading Economics https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency/news/584917 Accessed on 22 September 2026.
[7] “Bank of Japan Rate Hike September 2026: Yen Falls, Dovish Ueda” – Babypips https://www.babypips.com/news/headline-boj-rate-hike-september-2026-yen-falls-dovish-ueda Accessed on 22 September 2026.
[8] “USDJPY Price Forecast and Analysis for Today, 21 September 2026” – RoboForex https://roboforex.com/beginners/analytics/forex-forecast/currencies/usd-jpy-forecast-2026-09-21/ Accessed on 22 September 2026.
[9] “September 2026 FOMC Recap: Fed Hikes Rates 25bps” – MUFG Research https://www.mufgresearch.com/rates/september-2026-fomc-recap/ Accessed on 22 September 2026.
[10] “Autumnal Equinox Day” – Office Holidays https://www.officeholidays.com/holidays/japan/autumnal-equinox-day Accessed on 22 September 2026.
[11] “Fed Decision in October?” – Octagon https://www.octagonai.co/markets/economics/fed/fed-decision-in-october.md Accessed on 22 September 2026.
The information has been prepared as of the date published and is subject to change thereafter. The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn't take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
