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EUR/USD traded at 1.14667 on 22 September 2026, holding just below its 50-hour and 200-hour moving averages after the Federal Reserve raised its rate to 3.75%-4.00%, six days after the European Central Bank’s hike to 2.50%, with 1-hour RSI reading 43.80 against a 42.10 signal.

Two central banks hiked rates inside a single week, and EURUSD barely blinked. Search EUR/USD, EURUSD, EUR USD, Euro Dollar, Euro to USD, EUR to USD, or Euro vs USD, and you land on the same chart: a pair pinned just under 1.1500, digesting last Wednesday’s Fed decision without much conviction either way. If you came for a EURUSD forecast today, this is closer to a same-day chart read than a EUR/USD price forecast.

Quick-Read Checklist: EURUSD Right Now

Table 1: Quick-read snapshot as of 22 September 2026, 09:30 BST. Sources: Vantage EURUSD CFD, TradingView.

The Fed’s Hike Is Still Running the Show

The Federal Reserve raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on 16 September 2026, a unanimous decision and its first increase since 2023.1 The move followed an ECB hike of its own on 10 September, when the Governing Council lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, citing Middle East-linked inflation pressure it expects to persist.2 The ECB’s new projections see headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, easing to 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028.2

Both hikes were well flagged, which is probably why the reaction has been muted, not violent. Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen said this week that “the Fed has regained credibility,” a read that helps explain why the dollar has held its post-hike gains.3 Today’s EURUSD news flow is lighter: Federal Reserve policymakers Williams, Jefferson and Barkin are due to speak, and traders are weighing hopes for renewed US-Iran talks, which have lifted risk sentiment and softened the dollar.4 Eurozone flash consumer confidence lands at 16:00 CEST today, ahead of Wednesday’s flash PMIs.5

What the EURUSD Chart Is Telling Us

On the 1-hour chart, tracked via the technical analysis tools built into the Vantage EURUSD CFD feed, price fell sharply around last Wednesday’s Fed decision, dropping from close to 1.1560 to the 1.1470 region within a few hours. Since then, EURUSD has ranged mostly between 1.1450 and 1.1500, and by the 22 September cut-off sat at 1.14667, below its 50-period moving average of 1.14754 and its 200-period average of 1.15357. RSI (14, close) read 43.80 against a 42.10 signal average, having dipped below 30 twice since mid-September before recovering toward the midline. Ahead of the Fed decision, MUFG’s Lee Hardman had flagged that “the performance of EUR/USD may increasingly hinge on the Fed’s policy response”, a call that still holds.6

EURUSD 1-hour chart with 50- and 200-period moving averages and RSI(14) (TradingView, Vantage EURUSD CFD feed). Accessed 22 September 2026, 09:30 BST. Data indicative, for informational purposes only.

EURUSD Chart Levels Traders Are Watching

The table below covers the EUR USD chart zones traders are monitoring today. These are reference levels, not EUR/USD trading signals.

Table 2: Key levels as of 22 September 2026, 09:30 BST. Sources: Vantage EURUSD CFD, TradingView. Reference levels only, not trade signals.

Price has struggled to reclaim the 50-hour average near 1.1475 since last Wednesday, while 1.1450 has offered nearby support on repeated intraday tests. A move back above the 50-hour average, or a break under 1.1450, is the marker of this consolidation resolving; holding inside these boundaries keeps EURUSD in the same sideways pattern it has traded since Thursday. None of this amounts to EUR/USD trading signals, just reference points on the chart.

What’s Next for EUR/USD Trading

• Fed speakers, 22 September 2026: Williams, Jefferson and Barkin are due to speak, and their tone on further tightening is a key input for the dollar leg of this pair.4
• Eurozone flash PMIs, 23 September 2026: composite, manufacturing and services readings for France, Germany and the eurozone are due from 09:15 CEST, alongside US flash PMIs later that day.5
• Next FOMC meeting, 27-28 October 2026: 16 of 18 Fed officials pencilled in one further rate rise before year-end.1,7
• Next ECB meeting, 29 October 2026: Governing Council commentary on the pace of any further 2026 moves stays a swing factor for the euro leg of this pair.2,8

Given last week’s move, this is a good point for traders with open EURUSD exposure to revisit their position sizing, decided before a position is opened rather than mid-session, since it is one of the few variables a trader controls directly. Trading EURUSD CFDs on leverage remains a double-edged tool: it can magnify both potential returns and potential losses relative to the capital committed, whichever way this range resolves. Please refer to the risk warning at the foot of this article before making any trading decisions.

Follow the latest Forex News and this EUR to USD story as it develops on Vantage’s Market Analysis hub.

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References

[1] “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement” – Federal Reserve. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm Accessed 22 September 2026.

[2] “Monetary policy decisions, 10 September 2026” – European Central Bank (via ActionForex). https://www.actionforex.com/?p=653664 Accessed 22 September 2026.

[3] “Euro: Dollar strength seen sustainable – Commerzbank” – FXStreet Insights Team. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-dollar-strength-seen-sustainable-commerzbank-202609210809 Accessed 22 September 2026.

[4] “EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains above 1.1450, but remains technically bearish below 100-day SMA” – FXStreet. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-holds-gains-above-11450-but-remains-technically-bearish-below-100-day-sma-202609220505 Accessed 22 September 2026.

[5] “Agenda Macro Zonebourse: semaine du 21 au 25 septembre 2026” – Zonebourse. https://www.optionfinance.fr/info-financiere-en-continu/d/2026-09-18-agenda-macro-zonebourse-semaine-du-21-au-25-septembre-2026.html Accessed 22 September 2026.

[6] “Euro-to-Dollar Forecast: Route To 1.20 Just Became Harder” (12 September 2026, ahead of the Fed decision) – Dave Taylor, exchangerates.org.uk. https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/47165/2026-09-12-euro-to-dollar-forecast-route-to-1-20-just-became-harder.html Accessed 22 September 2026.

[7] “FOMC Meeting Calendars and Information” – Federal Reserve Board (confirms 27-28 October 2026 as the next meeting date). https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm Accessed 22 September 2026.

[8] “Schedules for the meetings of the Governing Council and General Council of the ECB” – European Central Bank (confirms 29 October 2026 as the next policy decision date). https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html Accessed 22 September 2026.