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USD/JPY news today: the pair recovered part of two dips that followed Tokyo’s yen warnings. It fell to around 156.50 on Monday, 28 September, then printed 157.50 at 09:43 (GMT+8) on Tuesday, 29 September, with the US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.27% on 28 September.

Key Takeaways

• Tokyo warned on 25 and 28 September; each session saw a drop of over one yen.
• At the cut-off, price sat between converging 1H moving averages.

Tokyo raised its voice twice in two sessions. The market flinched, then went back to the maths. The Vantage USDJPY Contract for Difference (CFD) printed 157.50 at 01:43 (UTC) / 09:43 (GMT+8) on 29 September 2026, our cut-off for all prices unless dated.

Scanning USDJPY news today or USD JPY news today? Our take: the warnings lined up with the week’s lows, but the rate gap stayed wide and the pair climbed back. This USDJPY forecast reads the chart without calling direction; our guide to trading USD/JPY covers the basics.

Two Tokyo Warnings, Two Dips, and Two Partial Rebounds

On Friday, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama revealed that “President Trump expressed concern about the yen’s weakness” at the 22 September summit with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.1 The pair had stalled near 159.00 a day earlier; 2 the yen closed Friday about 1% firmer.3

On Monday, Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura told Reuters he was neither satisfied nor reassured by the yen’s moves, after which USD/JPY broke below 157.4 The pair bottomed around 156.50, then recovered to the mid-157s by the US open.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad summed it up: “USD is broadly firmer, but intervention risk keeps JPY on the front foot.” 5 The threat is real: in late July, Japan and the US staged their first joint intervention since 1998.3

Table 1: USD / JPY Warning Sessions Compared. Sources: Reuters, TradingView (UTC).

The US-Japan Rate Gap Tokyo’s Warnings Have Not Closed

Most USD JPY news led with the warnings, but rates did the heavy lifting. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its rate to 1.25% on 18 September, the highest since 1995, in a 7-2 vote.6 Hirofumi Suzuki of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation said the outcome “conveyed a dovish impression.” 7

The Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked at its 15-16 September meeting.8 On 28 September, the US 10-year yield hit 5.27%, its highest since 2007, against roughly 3.1% in Japan; CME FedWatch priced about a 70% chance of an October hike.8 That is a lot of interest rate news to offset.

With the Fed’s top rate at 4.00% 7 against 1.25% in Japan, the carry trade stays alive, so any USD JPY forecast starts there. A former BoJ official called an October hike possible,3 putting weight on this week’s BoJ releases.

What the USDJPY Chart Shows: Averages Squeeze Together

USDJPY H1 “Averages Squeeze Together” (TradingView, https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/USDJPY/) Accessed on 29 September 2026.

The technical analysis detail that stands out: price sat at 157.50, wedged between the 1H 50-period moving average (MA) at 157.56 and the 1H 200-period MA at 157.38. That 0.18 gap was the narrowest on the chart.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis read 53.36, above its 47.85 signal line: neutral, far from 25 September’s near-19 low.

Table 2: Levels Traders Are Monitoring as of 09:43 (GMT+8), 29 September 2026. Reference levels only. Not trade signals.

USD/JPY News This Week: Tankan, US Inflation, and Payrolls

This week’s checklist (GMT+8):

• US Inflation Data, 30 September: August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures land at 20:30.8
• Tankan and BoJ Summary of Opinions, 1 October: Both land at 07:50; large manufacturers are seen at 23 after 22.9
• US Nonfarm Payrolls, 2 October: Due at 20:30, with consensus at +90,000 versus 162,000 in August.9
• Official Commentary, Ongoing: On Tuesday, Katayama said an undervalued yen is generally problematic.10

Track releases via our USDJPY news, forex news today, and currency trading news pages.

Both dips followed official remarks, not scheduled data. A Stop Loss placed with 156.50 and 159.00 in mind carries extra weight here, as yen crosses often react to the same headlines.

Leverage is double-edged, magnifying losses as much as returns; on a pair that swung 1.35 yen on 28 September, an account balance can shift fast. Position sizing matters most around PCE and payrolls.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “Japan says Trump voiced concern over weak yen in summit with PM Takaichi – Reuters via NBC News” https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/japan-says-trump-voiced-concern-weak-yen-summit-pm-takaichi-rcna599791 Accessed on 29 September 2026.

[2] “Japanese Yen recovers amid intervention risk – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-recovers-from-three-week-low-vs-usd-amid-looming-intervention-risk-202609250226 Accessed on 29 September 2026.

[3] “Japanese Yen – Quote – Chart – Historical Data – News – Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency Accessed on 29 September 2026.

[4] “Exclusive-Japan’s currency diplomat Mimura urges markets to heed ‘very clear’ warning on yen – Reuters via Yahoo Finance” https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/exclusive-japan-top-fx-diplomat-075610914.html Accessed on 29 September 2026.

[5] “USD/JPY: Intervention risk caps upside – BBH via FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-intervention-risk-caps-upside-bbh-202609281002 Accessed on 29 September 2026.

[6] “Bank of Japan raises interest rates to 31-year high, flags concerns over inflation – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/18/japan-raises-rates-30-year-high-yen-jgb.html Accessed on 29 September 2026.

[7] “Bank of Japan lifts rates to 31-year high, two board members dissent – Reuters via KELO” https://kelo.com/2026/09/17/bank-of-japan-set-to-raise-interest-rates-to-31-year-high/ Accessed on 29 September 2026.

[8] “Japanese Yen trades cautiously as intervention risk clashes with Fed rate hike bets – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-trades-cautiously-as-intervention-risk-clashes-with-fed-rate-hike-bets-202609281816 Accessed on 29 September 2026.

[9] “RBA Rate Decision, Core PCE and NFP: The Week Ahead – RoboForex” https://roboforex.com/blog/analysis/market-week-ahead-september-28-october-2-rba-rate-decision/ Accessed on 29 September 2026.

[10] “Japan’s Katayama says undervalued Yen generally poses problems – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-says-undervalued-yen-generally-poses-problems-202609290211 Accessed on 29 September 2026.