Access Restricted

Gold has had a humbling month. A month ago, the XAUUSD chart was brushing 4,690. The gold price today tells the rest: at 09:43 (GMT+8) / 01:43 (UTC) on 25 September 2026, the Vantage XAUUSD CFD sat at 4,294.64 on the 4-hour (4H) chart, just under $4,300.

The story most wires tell centres on the US dollar, which rose to a two-month high this week, a week after the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered its first hike since 2023. 1,2 What caught our eye is who kept arriving as gold prices slid through September: gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors. 3

Charts are indicative and from TradingView. This is not financial advice.

Key points: Why is the Gold Price Falling this Week?

Gold slipped this week as the US dollar rose to a two-month high, one week after the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023. Hawkish Fed speakers and strong PMI data lifted bets on another hike. The Vantage XAUUSD CFD sat at 4,294.64 on 25 September.

Driver	Latest reading	How gold moved alongside it
Fed policy	3.75% to 4.00%; 77.5% October hike odds (24 September)	XAUUSD slipped below both 4H moving averages
US dollar	Two-month high; DXY near 100.86	Spot gold fell more than 1% on 23 September
Real yields	US 10-year at 2.63%, a 20-year-plus high	Gold ETF holdings kept recovering
Oil	Brent at $106.60, up 17%+ in September	Inflation risk kept hike bets alive

Table 1: Gold drivers as of 25 September 2026. Sources: Reuters, CNBC, Saxo Bank, TradingView. 2,3,5,6,8,9

XAUUSD Technical Analysis: Lower Highs are Pressing on a 4,240 Floor

On the 4H XAUUSD chart, a single candle on 28 August took price from about 4,605 to near 4,465. Gold then bottomed near 4,280 on 2 September, right on the 200-period moving average (MA), when the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the XAUUSD TradingView setup used for this analysis dipped close to 20.

The rebound peaked around 4,510 on 3 September. Every rally since has stalled a little lower: near 4,435 on 10 September, 4,400 on 18 September, and 4,375 on 23 September.

The lows are steadier: a band between roughly 4,235 and 4,260 held on 14, 16, and 24 September. Lower highs against a flat floor is classic compression; the market is coiling, not choosing.

The 50-period MA, at 4,321.82, crossed below the 200-period MA, at 4,416.12, around 15 September. The XAUUSD price has sat below the 200-period line since mid-September and below both since 23 September. RSI read 46.07 at the cut-off, above its 40.80 signal line after a low-30s dip on 24 September: neutral, not oversold. More in our technical analysis archive.

XAUUSD 4H “Lower highs above a 4,235 to 4,260 floor” (TradingView, https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAUUSD/) Accessed on 25 September 2026. Data indicative, for informational purposes only.

XAUUSD News: A Hawkish Fed and a Two-Month High in the Dollar

The Fed Hiked, and Markets are Pricing Another

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote on 28 August moved market pricing towards a hike [4], the same day as the steepest 4H drop on this chart.

On 16 September, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 12-0 to lift the fed funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. 2 Warsh said inflation had been too high “for too long”. 2

Federal Reserve speakers have kept the message firm. Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin and Boston Fed’s Susan Collins both backed the hike. “Post-FOMC Fed speak has been fairly hawkish,” said Peter Grant, senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. 5 On 24 September, New York Fed President John Williams called another hike by year-end “reasonable”, and CME FedWatch put October hike odds at 77.5%, up from around 53% a day earlier. 6

Strong PMI Data Sent the Dollar to a Two-Month High

Gold was already 0.90% lower at $4,316.59 by 10:27 (GMT) on 23 September. 1 Then the S&P Global flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) jumped to 58.4 from 56.0, the strongest since July 2021. 7 “US business continues to boom,” said Chris Williamson, S&P Global’s chief business economist. 7 The dollar hit a two-month high, and spot gold extended its loss past 1%. 5

Kotak Securities put the US Dollar Index (DXY) near 100.86, its highest since July. 8 A firmer greenback makes gold pricier abroad, while higher rates raise the cost of holding a metal that pays nothing.

Oil and the Strait of Hormuz keep inflation on the table

Brent crude closed at $106.60 on 24 September, up 3.40% on the day and more than 17% for September. 9 The gains coincided with Houthi missiles fired at Saudi cities, including the Yanbu oil export terminal, while US and Iranian leaders traded defiant speeches at the UN. 9

Middle East conflict risk usually supports safe haven assets, but pricier energy also feeds inflation. This week, the rates channel appeared to win.

The Twist in the Gold News: ETF Demand Rose as Prices Fell

US 10-year real yields hit 2.63% on Friday 18 September, the highest in more than two decades and 76 basis points up on the year. 3 Textbook logic says that should drain gold demand. It hasn’t.

In a 21 September note, Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen said total gold-backed ETF holdings kept recovering after a first-half drop. The gold price is no longer the only thing breaking from real yields, he argued: “ETF holdings are showing signs of doing so as well”. 3 Some investors, he wrote, now read high long-term yields as a fiscal warning rather than a better offer than gold.

Our take: the dollar and Fed pricing are setting the XAUUSD price for now, while longer-horizon demand hasn’t left the room. That fits a chart where the highs keep slipping but the floor keeps holding. More on our gold news page.

XAUUSD Price Levels Traders are Monitoring

Hansen framed the range on 23 September: “Gold continues to trade within its established narrow $4,300 to $4,400 range”. 1 Intraday, price had already dipped below its lower edge on 14, 16, 23, and 24 September, and sat just under it at the cut-off. Reference levels, not trade signals:

Level	What it is	What the 4H chart shows
4,416.12	200-period MA	Flattening; price below since mid-September
4,400	Swing high / range top	18 September high; Saxo range top
4,321.82	50-period MA	Price below it since 23 September
4,300	Round number / Saxo range floor	Price just under it at 09:43 (GMT+8)
4,235 to 4,260	Swing lows	Held on 14, 16, and 24 September

Table 2: Key levels, Vantage XAUUSD CFD 4H chart, 09:43 (GMT+8), 25 September 2026. Sources: TradingView, Reuters [1].

Gold Price News to Watch Next Week

• Core PCE, 30 September: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for August lands at 08:30 (EDT) / 20:30 (GMT+8). 10
• September NFP, 2 October: The next US jobs report is due at 08:30 (EDT) / 20:30 (GMT+8). 11
• Fed Speakers, Ongoing: Further remarks are the clearest read on whether this week’s hawkish tone is holding after PCE.
• Strait of Hormuz, Ongoing: Shipping talks feed through oil into inflation expectations. 9 Vantage’s separate XAUUSD247 gold CFD also trades weekends for eligible clients.

We’ll keep tracking it on our gold price news and XAUUSD news pages.

XAUUSD reacted to Fed speakers and oil headlines within hours this week, and data releases can bring gaps and slippage. A Stop Loss does not prevent losses, but it can help limit them to a planned size. Gold, dollar, and oil-linked positions can move together on one headline, so combined exposure is worth checking.

Leverage works both ways, magnifying potential returns and potential losses relative to the capital committed. Our XAUUSD risk management guide covers position sizing and margin.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “Gold retreats as hawkish Fed comments reinforce policy tightening bets – Kitco News (Reuters)” https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-09-23/gold-retreats-hawkish-fed-comments-reinforce-policy-tightening-bets Accessed on 25 September 2026.

[2] “Fed rate decision September 2026: Rates rise to 3.75%-4% – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html Accessed on 25 September 2026.

[3] “Gold breaks with real yields as fiscal concerns reshape investor demand – Saxo” https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/gold-breaks-with-real-yields-as-fiscal-concerns-reshape-investor-demand-21092026 Accessed on 25 September 2026.

[4] “Markets see Warsh endorsing a rate hike in September. Not everyone is convinced – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/markets-see-warsh-endorsing-a-rate-hike-in-september-not-everyone-is-convinced.html Accessed on 25 September 2026.

[5] “Gold loses shine as rate hike bets foster a stronger dollar – MarketScreener (Reuters)” https://www.marketscreener.com/news/gold-loses-shine-as-rate-hike-bets-foster-a-stronger-dollar-ce785ad9df81ff22 Accessed on 25 September 2026.

[6] “New York Fed’s Williams says it’s ‘reasonable’ to expect another rate hike by year-end – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/feds-williams-another-rate-hike-by-year-end.html Accessed on 25 September 2026.

[7] “U.S. Flash PMI Signals Fastest Growth For Over 5 Years In September – Seeking Alpha” https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949238-us-flash-pmi-signals-fastest-growth-for-over-5-years-in-september Accessed on 25 September 2026.

[8] “News by CNBC TV18 on TradingView, 24 September 2026 – TradingView” https://www.tradingview.com/news/cnbctv:1f278c1d2094b:0/ Accessed on 25 September 2026.

[9] “Oil prices pull back from session highs after report of talks for phased reopening of Strait of Hormuz – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/oil-iran-crude-kepler-trump-us-un-.html Accessed on 25 September 2026.

[10] “Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – US Bureau of Economic Analysis” https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index Accessed on 25 September 2026.

[11] “October 2026 Release Schedule – US Bureau of Labor Statistics” https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched_list.htm Accessed on 25 September 2026.