It’s a jam-packed week with no less than 12 central bank meetings across the globe, plus top tier data out of the US like non-farm payrolls, CPI and retail sales, PMIs and a UK data dump. Nothing like a quiet end to the year! There are three major central bank meetings that traders will focus on especially – the ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. Markets expect a full house of rate decisions – which means on hold, a rate cut and a rate hike respectively. First up is the Bank of England, followed closely by the ECB on Thursday, with the Bank of Japan fully predicted to announce a rate hike on Friday.

After this week, we actually won’t hear from major central banks until at least mid-January, and this comes after the FOMC more dovish than expected rate cut last week. Interestingly, the interest rate cycle for several including the BoJ, the Antipodeans and the Bank of Canada is now shifting with market pricing policy tightening over the coming year. And others like the ECB and SNB are priced to be done with their easing campaigns. Is it too early to move to a different phase and will ‘data dependent’ be the central bankers phrase of 2026?

The not-so hawkish Fed message initially hit the dollar and boosted stock markets, while precious metals like gold and especially silver’s bullish momentum were seen in full effect. But Broadcom’s cloudy guidance raised concerns about shrinking profit margins and uncertainty around its AI-related growth. We note this company just before its results last week was valued just shy of $2 trillion. In addition, Oracle showed slowing revenue and a notable increase in spending. This all added to bubble worries which continue to linger. Rotation which has been seen recently into industrials, materials and financials could broaden and be the bulls best hope of a year-end rally.  

In Brief: Major data releases of the week

Monday, 15 December 2025

China data: Activity is forecast to tick up modestly higher, but many economists still see an uneven and gradual recovery in consumption and manufacturing. Property sector weakness could hasten more stimulus. 

Canada CPI: Headline inflation is forecast to tick one-tenth higher to 2.3% and median core is seen steady at 2.9%. Trade-induced price pressures are likely to be offset by continued economic slack.

Tuesday, 16 December 2025

UK Jobs: Employment change is seen at -60k, unemployment up one-tenth to 5.1% and average earnings (ex-bonus) one-tenth lower at 4.5%. Easing labour market weakness is broadly predicted.

Eurozone PMIS: Services should boost the composite print in the eurozone, with reduced French political noise and progress on the German 2026 budget also helping.

US Non-Farm Payrolls: Consensus expects 50k jobs to be added, below the prior 119k. The unemployment rate is predicted to stick at 4.4%. Wage growth is seen at 0.3% m/m. The government shutdown may mean there is a lot of abnormal noise in the data. The recent Fed meeting cemented expectations of softer figures.

Wednesday, 17 December 2025

UK CPI: Analysts estimate figures in line with the BoE’s latest forecasts. The headline rate is seen at 3.5% from 3.6% and core steady at 3.4% after falling for three straight months. Black Friday discounting should help.

US Retail Sales: Sales are projected to rise 0.2% with the control group at 0.3% m/m. Consumer spending appears to be relatively healthy though Black Friday may have been softer than hoped. 

Thursday, 18 December 2025

Bank of England Meeting: There’s a 90% chance the MPC cuts rates by 25bps to 3.75%. Bailey should have the deciding vote in another tight call. The weak growth outlook and peak inflation help the doves.   

ECB Meeting: The eurozone economy has been broadly resilient in recent weeks. That points to a quiet meeting, with policy still in a ‘good place’. New forecasts are likely to see GDP upgraded and on target inflation.

US CPI: There is no monthly figure due to the government shutdown. Headline is expected at 3.1% and core at 3%. Falling services prices, specifically shelter, is estimated to offset some tariff-related goods inflation, though some economists warn of higher cost inputs. 

Friday, 19 December 2025

BOJ Meeting: The BoJ is widely expected to hike the policy rate by 25bps to 0.75%. Hawkish comments from officials and reduced opposition from the new PM have increased bets on a move. Wage driven inflation is key to the bank’s view on neutral, with another hike not priced in until September 2026.